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This is a copy of the powerpoint presentation from the Institute for 21st Century Agoras (http://sunsite.utk.edu/FINS/loversofdemocracy/WISDOM.ppt)
Citation preview
How People Harness Their Collective Wisdom and Power
to Create the Future
Alexander N. Christakis, PhD
President, Institute for 21st Century Agoras
www.GlobalAgoras.org
Alexander N. ChristakisInformation Age / February 2006
How People Harness Their Collective Wisdom and
Power to Construct the Future
in Co-Laboratories of Democracy
The Historic Challenge
"I would not give a whit for the simplicity this side of complexity, but I would give my life for the simplicity on the far side
of complexity."
O. W. Holmes
Three Fundamental Premisesfor Participative Democracy
True dialogue is essential for participative democracy;
True dialogue is difficult in the Information Age – complexity demands that we address issues collaboratively, systematically, and systemically; and
To address Information Age issues systemically, we need the support of the processes developed through the Science of Dialogic Design.
Three Axioms of the Science of Dialogic Design
No single observer has the complete picture of complex problems;
Everyone has limits for the amount of information they can process at any one time; and
In order to make judgments, we need to compare similar things.
Milestone in the Evolution of theScience of Dialogic Design
Nominal Group Technique; Interpretive Structural Modeling; DELPHI; Options Field; Options Profile; and Trade-off Analysis.
Consensus Methods _ 1972 through 1982
Elemental observation; Problematique; Influence tree pattern; Options field pattern; Options profile/scenario pattern; Superposition pattern; and Action plan pattern.
Milestone in the Evolution of theScience of Dialogic Design
Language Patterns _ 1970 through 1989
Discovery; Designing; and Action.
Milestone in the Evolution of theScience of Dialogic Design
Application Time Phases _ 1989 through 2001
Context – Inquiry Design Team; Content – Stakeholder/Designers; and Process – Facilitation Team
Milestone in the Evolution of theScience of Dialogic Design
Key Role Responsibilities _ 1982 through 2002
Definition or Anticipation; Design of Alternatives; Decision; and Action Planning.
Milestone in the Evolution of theScience of Dialogic DesignStages of Interactive Inquiry _ 1989 through 1995
Collaborative Space Collaborative Software
Milestone in the Evolution of theScience of Dialogic DesignSupportive Technology _ 1981 through 1995
RequisiteVariety (RequisiteVariety (AshbyAshby);); Requisite Parsimony (Requisite Parsimony (MillerMiller);); Requisite Saliency (Requisite Saliency (BouldingBoulding);); Meaning and Wisdom (Meaning and Wisdom (PeircePeirce);); Authenticity and Autonomy (Authenticity and Autonomy (TsivacouTsivacou); and ); and Evolutionary Learning (Evolutionary Learning (DyeDye) )
Milestone in the Evolution of theScience of Dialogic Design
Dialogue Laws _ 2001 through 2003
Requisite Evolutionary Learning and the Erroneous Priorities Effect
Whenever observations made by stakeholders in the context of a complex designing situation are interdependent, assigning priorities for action on the basis of aggregating individual stakeholder “importance voting” leads to the erroneous priorities effect and to ineffective actions. The effective priorities for action emerge after an evolutionary inquiry of the interdependencies among the observations through a dialogue focusing on “influence voting.”
Evolutionary Learningand the Erroneous Priorities Effect
Progressive Evaluations of theIntent Structure of GRP Goals
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Goal Label
Infl
uen
ce
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Weig
hte
d V
oti
ng
Influence Rating Weighted 2 Weighted 1
Components of the Science Operational in Designing Phase
Steps in each Stage of InquiryComplexSituation
ArticulateObservations
ClarifyMeaning
ClusterInductively
Frame andFocus on aTriggeringQuestion
?DevelopShared
Language
Vote &Rank
StructureAbductively
EvaluateCross-Impact
InterpretLearning
Interactive Management Consultants
Class
Label
Type A Type CType B
Copyright © 1999 - All Rights Reserved
Influence
(a) (b) (c) (d) (e)
(f) (g) (h) (i) (j)
Some Graphic Language Patterns of the Science
The Six Dialogue Laws
Ashby's Law of Requisite Variety
APPRECIATION OF THE DIVERSITY OF PERSPECTIVES OF OBSERVERS
The Six Dialogue Laws
Miller's Law of Requisite Parsimony
STRUCTURED DIALOGUE IS REQUIRED TO AVOID THE COGNITIVE OVERLOAD OF OBSERVERS
The Six Dialogue Laws
Boulding's Law of Requisite Saliency
THE RELATIVE IMPORTANCE OF OBSERVATIONS CAN ONLY BE UNDERSTOOD THROUGH COMPARISONS WITHIN AN ORGANIZED SET
The Six Dialogue Laws Peirce's Law of Requisite Meaning
MEANING AND WISDOM ARE PRODUCED IN A DIALOGUE ONLY WHEN THE OBSERVERS SEARCH FOR RELATIONSHIPS OF SIMILARITY, PRIORITY, INFLUENCE, etc. WITHIN A SET OF OBSERVATIONS
The Six Dialogue Laws Tsivacou's Law of Requisite Autonomy in
Distinction-Making
DURING DIALOGUE IT IS NECESSARY TO PROTECT THE AUTONOMY AND AUTHENTICITY OF EACH OBSERVER IN DRAWING DISTINCTIONS
The Six Dialogue Laws
Dye's Law of Requisite Evolutionary Learning
LEARNING OCCURS IN A DIALOGUE AS THE OBSERVERS SEARCH FOR INFLUENCE RELATIONSHIPS AMONG THE MEMBERS OF A SET OF OBSERVATIONS
Influence Voting Question• “Supposing that in a dialogue on a complex
Information Age issue the participants were able to implement:
• (PRINCIPLE A: DIVERSITY OF PERSPECTIVES)
• Will this SIGNIFICANTLY enhance their capacity to implement:
• (PRINCIPLE B: STRUCTURED DIALOGUE)• ?”
Influence Voting Question• “Supposing that in a dialogue on a complex
Information Age issue the participants were able to implement:
• (PRINCIPLE B: STRUCTURED DIALOGUE)
• Will this SIGNIFICANTLY enhance their capacity to implement:
• (PRINCIPLE A: DIVERSITY OF PERSPECTIVES)
• ?”
A Tree of Meaning
MEANING AND WISDOM
UNDERSTANDING IMPORTANCE
APPRECIATION OF DIVERSITY
LEARNING
AUTONOMY
STRUCTURED DIALOGUE
Level I
Level II
Level III
Level IV
Level V
Level VI
Effective Action
Community Co-laboratory of Democracy
Voting on Relative Importance
Influence Tree of Intentions of the Future of Our Community
(29 - Intention) REEXPLORE IDEAS TO ALLOW ELDERLY MEMBERS TO REMAIN ON THE BG HOMESTEAD
(2 - Intention) MAKE THE TRANSITION FROM OUR EARLY STAGE OF GROWTH (WITH REGARD TO THE PHYSICAL BG) TO ONE OF STEWARDSHIP
(42 - Intention) REUNITE LESS ACTIVE MEMBERS OF OUR COMMUNITY WITH AN INVITATION TO PARTICIPATE ANEW
(10 - Intention) LEARN TO HAVE FUN TOGETHER AS A COMMUNITY
(18 - Intention) USE OUR PAST KNOWLEDGE TO ENLIGHTEN OUR FUTURE PLANNING
(24 - Intention) ACCOMPLISH SOME DEFINITIVE RESOLUTION TO ISSUES THAT SURFACE REPEATEDLY
(26 - Intention) LIVE IN AN ENVIRONMENTALLY SUSTAINABLE MANNER WITHIN THE SOCIETY
(12 - Intention) IDENTIFY WAYS TO IMPROVE OUR DECISION MAKING PROCESS
(1 - Intention) RESTORE THE INTENTIONAL DIVERSITY OF THE COMMUNITY
(21 - Intention) ENCOURAGE MEMBERS TO ACT ON THE SAYING "IT TAKES A VILLAGE TO RAISE A CHILD"
(38 - Intention) IDENTIFY WAYS TO INVOLVE CHILDREN IN DECISION MAKING PROCESS
(9 - Intention) DEVELOP EFFECTIVE WAYS OF RESOLVING DISPUTES SO THAT NO ONE FEELS LIKE A WINNER OR A LOSER
Level II
Level I
Level IV
Level IIIKEY
Accomplishing Intention XSignificantly
Helps in Accomplishing Intention Y
Y
X
Generated by the participants at the Bryn Gweled Community Center – January 11, 2003
Interpretation of Influence Map
What is the Institute for 21st Century Agoras?
The Institute for 21st Century Agoras is a volunteer-driven organization dedicated to vigorous democracy on the model of that practiced in the agoras of ancient Greece. It employs Co-Laboratories of Democracy that enable civil dialogue in complex situations.
What does Agoras mean?
The agoras were the vital centers of the Greek cities. Their outdoor markets and convention halls where gossip mixed with politics. The agora of Athens was the birthplace of democracy. Here the town's citizens discussed pressing issues and made decisions on the basis of popular vote.