Alcatel Lucent's Ric Clark

ANNUAL TECHNOLOGY SYMPOSIUM COPYRIGHT © 2013 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

FIBRE TO THE MOST ECONOMIC POINTRic Clark | VP Strategy and Public Affairs, Asia PacificOctober 2013

2


5 YEARS AGO…

3


1. The Need for Speed

2. Technology Options

3. Economics of Deployment

4. The Way Forward


SAME AGENDA – STILL REVELANT

TECHNOLOGY DRIVERS

USAGE

GROWTH2008

4


TECHNOLOGY DRIVERS AND ENABLERS

WHAT’S CHANGED?

2008

• Tablets/Smart Phones

• Hetnet/Wifi

• Smart Appliances

5


WHAT’S CHANGED?

THE WEB DRIVING: HIGH SPEED INTERNET AND ‘BIGGER PIPES’

• Cloud-based services

• Social media

• Multi screen

• Ubiquity

2008

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EXPONENTIAL GROWTH NEEDS A BOLD APPRAOCH TO HIGHER SPEED BB

• Not a lot!

WHAT’S CHANGED?

2008

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GLOBAL TRENDS - BANDWIDTH

RESIDENTIAL VIDEO BANDWIDTH USAGE PROJECTION

SOURCE: Get To Fast, Faster: Accelerate the Existing Copper Plant with VDSL2 Vectoring and Bonding, April 2013, Alcatel-Lucent.

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SOCIAL MEDIA AS A POPULATIONBIGGER THAN TEXAS

SOURCE: IMF April 2013SOURCE: IMF April 2013 Population/Subscribers: Millions

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GLOBAL TRENDS USERS

SOURCE: A Changing Market Environment Demands a High Leverage Network, January 2013, Alcatel-Lucent: http://www2.alcatel-lucent.com/techzine/a-changing-market-environment-demands-a-high-leverage-network/

7.7bMOBILE CONNECTIONS

1.15bSMARTPHONESFIXED BROADBAND

CONNECTIONS

By 2016…

743m

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GLOBAL TRENDS TRAFFIC

SOURCE: A Changing Market Environment Demands a High Leverage Network, January 2013, Alcatel-Lucent: http://www2.alcatel-lucent.com/techzine/a-changing-market-environment-demands-a-high-leverage-network/

45-85xIn 5 years…TRAFFIC GROWTH

Macro Smart offload Metro cell (3G/LTE) Metro cell (Wi-Fi) Wi-Fi home

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 20160

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,00045x – 85x

GROWTH

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2008

VDSL2 GLOBAL TRENDS

• National Programs

• Evolution vs Revolution

• Recognition of OTT demand

• Headline speeds

WHAT’S CHANGED?

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WORLDWIDE BROADBAND TRENDS

Large, integrated predominantly

national players

Continuing large infrastructure / NBN

builds

Copper re-considered to meet timelines and

budgets

Diverse, competition driven, fragmented markets —in all aspects

Cable competition drives copper upgrade

Fiber investment stalling – re-commitment to copper

Large, integrated players and multi-national operators

Large-scale fiber or copper deployments in North America

Mixed copper, fiber, mobile deployments in Latin America

100M50%2020

90M2014

100M100M2020

90%2013

100M100M2015

100M90%2020

100M75%2020

speedsubs.date

0 ITU-T, fixed BB subs per 100 inhabitants

40

13


WHAT’S CHANGED?

TWO RESULTING PATHS TO MASS MARKET FIBRE

• Additional Technology Options

• Deployment experience

• MSO/CATV response

2008

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EMERGING OPERATOR STRATEGIES MORE BANDWIDTH TO MORE SUBSCRIBERS

TARGET• 50 Mbit/s : 2015• 90 Mbit/s : 2020 TREND

• Fast deployment• Limit investment

COPPER OPERATORS FIBRE OPERATORS

DRIVER • Cable competition, quick to market• Limited investment, quick revenue• Upgrade path

• Fibre competition• Future-proof• Public funding• Existing ducts/rights

PLATFORM • FTTN + FTTP in greenfield • FTTP, complemented by FTTx

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COPPER CONSTRAINTS

FUTURES

MIGRATION



4. The Way Forward

2008

2. Technology Options2. Technology Options

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WHAT’S CHANGED?

2008

THEORETICAL AND EXPECTED ADSL2+ PERFORMANCE ON AUSTRALIAN LOOPS

• Not constrained to copper

• But DSL has moved on!

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2008

STILL OPPORTUNITIES FOR IMPROVEMENT ON COPPER LOOPS

• This is now real!

WHAT’S CHANGED?

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VDSL2 VECTORING IN A NUTSHELL

EACH VDSL2 LINE INTERFERES WITH OTHER LINES IN CABLE BUNDLE

BUNDLE WITH COPPER PAIRS (TELEPHONE LINES)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200

at 400m

with normal VDSL240Mbps

100Mbpsat 400m

with VDSL2 Vectoring

Do

wn

stre

am

bitr

ate

[M

bp

s]

Distance[m]

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VDSL2 VECTORING DELIVERS PREDICTABLE HIGH SPEED FOR ALL LINES

100Mbps @ 400mDOWNSTREAM

40Mbps @ 400mUPSTREAM

SAME PERFORMANCEFOR ALL LINES – GOOD AND BAD

=

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VDSL2 VECTORINGBUILDING MOMENTUM

VDSL2 CUSTOMERS 90+ AT&T, Telmex, Oi, Belgacom, KPN, Telecom Austria, Sasktel, Turk Telekom, Telefonica, Telia Sonera, STC, TDC, Telenor

VECTORING TRIALS 55+ KPN, Orange, China Telecom, DTAG, Slovak Telecom, Tunisie Telecom

VECTORING CUSTOMERS 17 Belgacom, Telekom Austria

VECTORING LINES SHIPPED 1.3M August 2013



SOURCES: Next Gen PON, FTTH, and VDSL Deployment Strategies and Vendor Leadership, August 2012, Infonetics Research. VDSL2 Vectoring Deployment Strategies & Vendor Leadership, May 2013, Broadband Trends. Alcatel-Lucent.

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COPPER EVOLUTIONTHE MOVE TO SMALLER NODES

Modular Multi-service access Dense Sealed

Market trend to smaller nodes driving increased bandwidth over short copper loops

FTTN FTTHFTTE

FTTBFTTdp

7750/7450

IPTV

VoIP

ISAM

ONT

(1 subscriber interface)

Remotes

(1<subscriber interface)

FTTEFiber to the entry point

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COPPER EVOLUTIONG.FAST

Bell Labs started research on G.fast in Feb 2010• Working towards G.fast • Going from theory to practice as for VDSL2 vectoring

(vectoring started within ALU in 2005)• Driving force in G.fast standardization

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

G.fast pre-standard silicon G.fast standard silicon

G.fast products / deploymentBell Labs PoC

Vectoring addedApproved G.fast standard April OR December 2014

Most common misconceptions• G.fast products will be a reality soon.

Products only in 2016, standardization ongoing.• G.fast replaces vectoring and brings much higher bandwidths

G.fast targeted for very short loops <100-200m, hence requiring “deep fiber” investment.

G.fast performance VERY dependent on copper type, loop length. G.fast intended for very small nodes (e.g. 8 ports).

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WHAT’S CHANGED?

2008

MIGRATING FROM FTTN TO FTTP IN THE FUTURE

• 5 years of field experience!

• Pallet of options.

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FTTH FTTCurbFTTN

1000s-

10000s

100s10s

From ultra-high capacity FTTH …

FTTB

… over FTTN/B solutions with vectoring …

… to flexible FTTCurb micronodes with vectoring

FTTdp

FIBRE TO THE….FTTX TOOLKIT

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2008

ALCATEL-LUCENT, LEADING THE GLOBAL FIBRE NATION

• Not a lot!

WHAT’S CHANGED?

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UNPARALLELED EXPERIENCE IN NEXT GEN ACCESS#1 IN DSL, #2 IN GPON

250+ ADSLx/POTS CUSTOMERS

80% OF TOP-20OPERATORS

140+ PON FTTH CUSTOMERS

90+ VDSL2 CUSTOMERS

20+ P2P FTTHCUSTOMERS

17 VECTORINGCUSTOMERS

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4. The Way Forward

2008



FTT$


ECONOMICS OF DEPLOYMENT

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WHAT’S CHANGED?

2008

STARTING POINT FOR FTT$: THE BANDWIDTH EQUATION

• More technology options

• More field experience

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EMERGING OPERATOR STRATEGIESEXTENDING THE VALUE OF COPPER

OPTIONS TO INCREASE COPPER SPEEDS`1. Extend VDSL2

spectrum frequency.

2. Shorten copper loops.

3. Use multiple copper pairs (bonding).

4. Apply vectoring.

SOURCE: Get To Fast, Faster: Accelerate the Existing Copper Plant with VDSL2 Vectoring and Bonding, April 2013, Alcatel-Lucent.

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SOLVING THE BITRATE EQUATION

ADSL/CO FTTN250 subs

FTTCurb48 subs

FTTB32 subs

FTTPole16 subs

FTTWall1 sub

FTTH-2

3

8

13

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Other Factors

Home Connection & Installation

Home Equipment

Civil Works & Cables

Cabinets or POPs

Splitters

Equipment

FTTx COST COMPARISON, CAPEX + INSTALLATION

INVESTMENT• FTTH 3-5x FTTN• The closer to the subscriber, the closer

the cost to FTTH

1

TIME TO MARKET• Deploying FTTH is time consuming• Re-using existing copper can speed up

deployment

2

BANDWIDTH• FTTH: 1G and more• FTTx: 100M (VDSL2 Vectoring today),

G.fast evolution to 100s

3

OTHER FACTORS• (-) Aerial fiber, existing ducts• (+) difficulty to enter the home4

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POLICY SETTINGS1. The Need for Speed


4. The Way Forward

2008


4. The Way Forward


THE WAY FORWARD

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WHAT’S CHANGED?

2008

A MIX OF MARKET AND POLICY APPROACHES WILL BE NEEDED

• Community Demand

• Government(s) Support

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WHAT NOW IN AUSTRALIANBN EVOLUTION

1. NBN remains a world leading approach to broadband ubiquity, supporting new innovation, applications and services

2. Multi-mode access model aligned with global trends

3. Approach is achievable if reviews are efficient and momentum is maintained

4. The technology is proven; industry must remain proactive to guide the business model and implementation

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WHAT WILL WE TALK ABOUT IN 5 YEARS?

2013