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Driving the Broadband ChallengeDavid Eckard, CTO, Fixed Networks DivisionNovember 2015

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DRIVING THE BROADBAND CHALLENGEWHEN VEHICLE SHOPPING, WHAT DO WE LOOK FOR?

THE HIGHEST PERFORMANCE ?(bandwidth, latency, availability, programmability etc.)

THE LOWEST COST ?(capex, opex, inc. energy etc.)

THE MOST FUTURE PROOF ?(ready for the next big thing )

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DRIVING THE BROADBAND CHALLENGEA need for more carrying capacity

A NEED FOR MORE CAPACITY WHAT WE WANT TO

DRIVEBUT …

WHAT IS PRACTICAL

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+ +++FTTB

FTTN

ADSL

FTTH

FTTdp

2011 Deployment Strategy 2011 Exploring

WHAT ARE OTHERS DRIVING (2011 Model Year)?Multi-technology broadband is a mass market reality

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+ + + + + + + + ++ + + +

+ + + + + + + ++ + + + + +

FTTB

FTTN

ADSL

FTTH

FTTdp

2015 Strategy Extension 2015 Exploring++2011 Deployment Strategy 2011 Exploring

WHAT ARE OTHERS DRIVING (2015 Model Year)?Multi-technology broadband is a mass market reality

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10Gbps

2Gbps

10Gbps

WHAT ARE OTHERS DRIVING? Gigabit is a Broadband Marketing Weapon

10Gbps

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WHERE IS OUR VEHICLE TAKING US?Predicting based on where we have come from

MEETING DEMAND1

INVESTMENT2

LEVERAGE INFRASTRUCTURE3

SERVICES4Source: Jakob Nielsen: http://www.nngroup.com/articles/law-of-bandwidth/

1 Gb/sStart of gigabit race

Vectoringand G.fast

Dial-up modem

10 Gb/s 2Gbps

FTTH10Gbps

?

Or does the per subscriber peak bandwidth saturate?

Is this a self fulfilling prophecy?

Robert K. Merton

“The self-fulfilling prophecy is, in the beginning, a false definition of the situation evoking a new behavior which makes the original false conception come true.”

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WHERE IS OUR VEHICLE TAKING US?Aggressive Bottom’s Up View

MEETING DEMAND1

INVESTMENT2

LEVERAGE INFRASTRUCTURE3

SERVICES4 10

100

1000

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Band

wid

th d

eman

d (M

b/s)

Total subscriber bandwidth demand evolution

Sustained +very fast 1 GB file transfers

Sustained +very fast 100 MB file transfers

Sustained +very fast 10 MB file transfers

Sustained + web browsing, web SW apps

Sustained demand only

e.g. download HD movie in 30 sec.

e.g. download 5-min HD video in 10s

e.g. download photo or song in <1 sec.

VIDEO THE DOMINANT COMPONENT OF SUSTAINED BANDWIDTH

Sustained demand includes OTT and managed IPTV

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WHAT DOES OUR VEHICLE COST?Costs to deploy a new network FTTx COST COMPARISON, CAPEX + INSTALLATION

MEETING DEMAND1

INVESTMENT2

LEVERAGE INFRASTRUCTURE3

SERVICES4

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MEETING DEMAND1

INVESTMENT2

LEVERAGE INFRASTRUCTURE3

SERVICES4

HOW DO WE PAY FOR OUR VEHICLE?Different Scenarios for Deployment

Source: Bell Labs ConsultingMajor Western European operator (1 million premises model)

FTTN SOLVES THE BUSINESS CASE FOR FTTP

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HOW MUCH HORSEPOWER DO WE HAVE? Ubiquitous coverage with Copper

Distance [m]

Aggregate bitrate [Mbps]

MEETING DEMAND1

INVESTMENT2

3 LEVERAGE INFRASTRUCTURE

SERVICES4

TIME

COVERAGE

100%

G.Fast• Support FTTH-like speeds

• Extension of FTTH

• Possible LowerOPEX

FTTN VDSL / V.PLUS

• Short ROI• Generate revenue

• Fund DEEP FIBER

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WHAT ARE WE GOING TO CARRY IN OUR VEHICLE?TRENDS THAT ARE CHANGING SERVICES AND OUR INDUSTRY

MEETING DEMAND1

INVESTMENT2

LEVERAGE INFRASTRUCTURE3

SERVICES4

INTERNET OF THINGS

Reliable Transport

TRANSFORMPRESENCE

High Capacity BW to

Drive New Services

NfV, SDN

Abstraction and

Simplification in

Multi PHY Environmen

t

5G

Fixed Network is Backhaul

CLOUD

Applications hosted in the Network

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UBIQUITOUS BROADBANDPerformance

­ Create Ubiquitous High Performance Connectivity­ Create a “Tool Kit” of different technologies for diverse topologies

­ Longer term push for deeper fiber for high performance and lower OPEX

Coverage­ Accelerate deployment utilizing existing infrastructure

­ Maximize ubiquitous and widespread coverage

sPEED­ Meet the needs of your customers for ubiquitous broadband

ITS ABOUT PRACTICALITY

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