CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security

(CCAFS)James Kinyangi,

Africa Climate Conference, 2013, Arusha, Tanzania

2. Climate information services and climate-informed safety nets

3. Low emissions development

4. Policies and institutions for climate-resilient food systems

1. Climate smart technologies, practices, and

portfolios

3

Big problems

1. Large yield gaps in all crops is an opportunity for meeting food demand in future even in the face of increasing climatic risks.

2. In short-term, several options relating to technology transfer and adoption can help improve adaptive capacity. Later, better adapted genotypes will be needed.

3. Climate change may provide new opportunities for growing crops in regions/periods not considered suitable earlier. Need to manage them.

4. Problems related to poverty, governance, institutions, and human capital limit agriculture growth today and can also limit adaptation to increasing climatic risks.

4

Agronomic options can meet goals of adaptation in short-term

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

Impact + Sowingdate

+ Variety + Irrigationefficiency

+ Fertilizeruse

efficiency

+ Additionalinputs

Adaptation options

Net

vu

lner

abili

ty, %

5

Climate change may limit the potential adaptation window of current technologies

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 1 2 3 4 5

Yie

ld g

ap

, t/h

a

6

Providing value-added weather servicesWeak weather infrastructure; data protocols, storage, access and dissemination

Promoting insurance for climatic risk managementscientific and economically validated schemes; weather derivatives; awareness

Facilitating community partnership in food, forage and seed banks Technical know-how; capital costs; reduced acceptance if successive years are risk free

Compensating farmers for environmental servicesTechnical know-how; costs of production go up

Sharing experiences across similar regionsValidation in new scenarios of development and climate risks

Adaptation to increasing climatic risks: Assisting farmers to cope with current climatic risks

7

Constraints to seasonal forecast use and benefit by farmers Coarse spatial scale lacks local information Lack of information about timing of rainfall Lack of information about onset & cessation or

length of season Ambiguity about forecast categories Forecasts not in local language Accuracy not sufficient

8

Deepen understanding of links between science and indigenous knowledge

Risk Assessments linked to both biophysical and social vulnerability

Participatory development of decision tools

9

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