AfriSWOG – An Outline Assessment of the Growth of the Broadcast Market in Sub-Saharan Africa and its implications for spectrum allocationRussell Southwood, CEO, Balancing Actwww.balancingact-africa.com

Methodology - 1

Methodology -2

Existing TV Channels2011 2015 exc DTT 2015 with DTT292 429 891

50% of 44 countries have less than 5 TV channels

2 Key Factors for Growth of TV Channels

Liberalisation: March 2014, 25 out of 48 Sub-Saharan African countries had completely liberalised (both radio and TV), 15 partially liberalised (radio only) and 8 not liberalised 4 may liberalise: Cote d’Ivoire, Ethiopia, Mali and Zimbabwe

Pay TV DTT Operators – Helping with DTT Process. Star Times JVs with Govt broadcasters. GoTV, DStv’s low cost, DTT bouquet as a response. Two of them in francophone Africa

Projected Growth - 1

Projected TV Channels - 1

Projected Growth 2

MUX Requirements - 1

MUX Requirements - 2

MUX requirements - 3

Case Study 1 - Nigeria 65% of population have access to TV. Two largest markets

are Lagos and Abuja Key Free-To-Air TV players in Lagos based on 2011 data

were as follows: Galaxy (16%), Silverbird (16%), TVC (16%), Channels TV (15%), AIT (14%) and NTA (4%). TVC is relatively new entrant in the market. In Abuja, AIT and NTA are the two key players by audience share.

Pay TV: According to Balancing Act estimates based on industry-obtained data, there are over 1.8 m subscribers.

Four signal carriers: Pinnacle Communications, Details Nigeria Ltd (the signal carrier for DStv’s DTT Pay TV operation), StarTimes and MTS Communications. Transition still in progress

Case Study 2 - Senegal Two biggest cities: Dakar and Toubia Five main players: RTS1, 2STV, TFM, Walf TV and RDV International operators TV5 and Canal+ get significant

audience share Pay TV: Estimated 200,000-250,000 RTS talking of launching HD channels Single signal carrier EXCAF. Transition in progress. Currently 60% population coverage but intend to make

national Set-Top box subsidy scheme discussed

Case Study 3 – South AfricaAfrica’s wealthiest country but relatively few FTA

broadcasters. Two key players: SABC with 3 channels and eTV

Pay TV. DStv 5.4 million subscribersSingle signal carrier: Sentech. Transition in

progress. 85% DTT coverage soon, remaining 16% by satellite

Population affluent enough to support HD channels

Conclusions 25 countries where spectrum could be freed up. On low

estimates, 17 require only one MUX, 7 require 2-3 MUXs, 1 4 MUXs. Planning for 4 MUXs overstates requirement

Governments might want to have the ability to able to award above and below 694 MHz to mobile use.

VHF Band: Would accommodate 4 MUX countries. On basis of Finland and South Africa might give 2-3 additional MUXs

Demand for over 8 MUXs: Congo Brazzaville, DRC, Ethiopia, Kenya, Madagascar, Mozambique, Nigeria and Uganda. Issue of DRC and Congo-B

Satellite not yet an alternative to DTT for any great number Three sets of technology needing consideration: T-DAB

radio, 3DTV and Ultra-High Definition