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Tourism is an increasingly important and developing sector of the Peruvian economy and the country is fast-tracking development to accommodate an influx of tourists, reportedly over 1.8 million/year. Situated in the southwest region of Peru, Aguas Calientes (Machu Picchu Pueblo) continues to develop infrastructure to keep pace with this burgeoning tourism industry. Regional geology and hydrology are importation factors influencing the ability to accommodate tourism in Aguas Calientes. Located at the confluence of three rivers, the town is also situated in a watershed with high return intervals for flooding and mass wasting triggered by the sudden, intense rainfall characterizing the wet season. Using a prototype landslide susceptibility model expanded to analyze exposure and risk perception, this research examines the relationship between perception and physical variations and processes across the landscape. The approach uniquely pairs qualitative, ethnographic methods with quantitative data and modeling to create susceptibility maps and a query-ready spatial database for use in resource management. Results also suggest the need for re-evaluation of the extent and classification of hazard zone for use in resource management and land use planning.
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GIS PROTOTYPE MODELING OF LANDSLIDE SUSCEPTIBILITY AND RISK PERCEPTION - AGUAS CALIENTES (MACHU PICCHU PUEBLO), PERU
Alicia F. Tyson, M.A., M.S. GIS in the Rockies 2013 October 9, 2013
Machu Picchu
Aguas Calientes
OUR JOURNEY I. Setting & hazards/growth challenges
II. Developing mixed-methods methodology
III. Analyze that! … and this … and …
IV. Findings and implications
Data, oh data, wherefore art thou data?
SETTING
HAZARD HISTORY & LAND USE MANAGEMENT • Dependency on tourism industry - Machu Picchu
• Surge since 1990s
• Aguas Calientes (2001-2010): ~421,000 to ~700,000
• “Unchecked” development
• Literature Review • Hazard history & GIS (Bulmer & Farquhar 2010; Carreno &
Kalafatovich 2006; Sassa 2005; Vilímek 2006)
• Risk Perception/Communication (Laboy-Nieves et al. 2010; Fischhoff 1995; Leiss 2004; Gomez and Jones III 2010; Bell n.d.; Jacobson & Kitchin 1995; Wise & Kon 1990; Boschmann & Cubbon 2013)
DEVELOPING METHODOLOGY
DEVELOPING METHODOLOGY • Stage 1 – Determining Landslide Susceptibility
• Buffer Analysis
• Stage 2 – Evaluating for Risk Analysis
• Stage 3 – Analyzing Interview Responses
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PHASE 1: DETERMINING LANDSLIDE SUSCEPTIBILITY • Data Sources
• Autocad drawings
• Aerial photography
• Satellite imagery
• DEM
• Interviews
PHASE 1: DETERMINING LANDSLIDE SUSCEPTIBILITY • Data Sources
• Autocad drawings
• Aerial photography
• Satellite imagery
• DEM
• Interviews
PHASE 1: DETERMINING LANDSLIDE SUSCEPTIBILITY • Data Sources
• Autocad drawings
• Aerial photography
• Satellite imagery
• DEM
• Interviews
PHASE 1: DETERMINING LANDSLIDE SUSCEPTIBILITY • Data Sources
• Autocad drawings
• Aerial photography
• Satellite imagery
• DEM
• Interviews
PHASE 1: DETERMINING LANDSLIDE SUSCEPTIBILITY • Model Inputs
• Slope
• Soil type
• Land Cover type
PHASE 1: DETERMINING LANDSLIDE SUSCEPTIBILITY • Landslide Susceptibility Model
• Normalization of basemaps
• Weighting
• Overall Landslide Susceptibility Map
PHASE 1: BUFFER ANALYSIS • Evaluation for impact from continued development
• ~50ft surrounding portions of built development
• Weighted
• Overall Landslide Susceptibility Map - rerun
PHASE 2: EVALUATING FOR RISK PERCEPTION • Data sources
• 6 weeks in the field – Aguas Calientes
• 25 semi-structured interviews
• Sketch mapping
• GPS point data
PHASE 3: ANALYZING INTERVIEW RESPONSES • Geospatial queries based on interview data
• Examine relationship between perception and proximity to susceptibility
RESULTS Stage 1: Overall Landslide Susceptibility & Buffer Analysis
RESULTS Stage 1: Overall Landslide Susceptibility & Buffer Analysis
RESULTS Stage 2: Evaluating for risk perception
RESULTS Stage 3: Analyzing interview responses
• “..todo lo quiero construir” (“…all I want to build”) • “no hay respeto por la autoridad de Municipio…ellos estan preocupado con
dinero” (“there is no respect for the authority of the Municipal government…they are preoccupied with money”)
• “no hay diferencias; son igual; si, ocurren aqui; si, empiezan en lo mismo lugar” (“there are no differences; they are the same; yes, they occur here; yes, they begin in the same place”)
- Female, Owner of juice bar, local market
RESULTS Stage 3: Analyzing interview responses
FUTURE APPLICATION & EXTENSIONS • Application of model to debris flow modeling
• Assessment of areas uphill using variable buffer
• Acquisition of better data
• Application to other locations
• Refinement of model
CHALLENGES REMAIN
FUTURE APPLICATION
Special Thanks to: Advisors: Steven R. Hick & Joseph K. Berry Committee: J. Michael Daniels, Kris Kuzera
Research Assistance and Support: Mario Escobar, Eric Boschmann, Rene Pumayalli, Carlos Inca Gonzales, Allison Wagner, Amir Siraj, Joseph Hoover
Financial Assistance from the Laurence C. Herold Fund
