GIS PROTOTYPE MODELING OF LANDSLIDE SUSCEPTIBILITY AND RISK PERCEPTION - AGUAS CALIENTES (MACHU PICCHU PUEBLO), PERU
Alicia F. Tyson, M.A., M.S. GIS in the Rockies 2013 October 9, 2013
Machu Picchu
Aguas Calientes
OUR JOURNEY I. Setting & hazards/growth challenges
II. Developing mixed-methods methodology
III. Analyze that! … and this … and …
IV. Findings and implications
Data, oh data, wherefore art thou data?
SETTING
HAZARD HISTORY & LAND USE MANAGEMENT • Dependency on tourism industry - Machu Picchu
• Surge since 1990s
• Aguas Calientes (2001-2010): ~421,000 to ~700,000
• “Unchecked” development
• Literature Review • Hazard history & GIS (Bulmer & Farquhar 2010; Carreno &
Kalafatovich 2006; Sassa 2005; Vilímek 2006)
• Risk Perception/Communication (Laboy-Nieves et al. 2010; Fischhoff 1995; Leiss 2004; Gomez and Jones III 2010; Bell n.d.; Jacobson & Kitchin 1995; Wise & Kon 1990; Boschmann & Cubbon 2013)
DEVELOPING METHODOLOGY
DEVELOPING METHODOLOGY • Stage 1 – Determining Landslide Susceptibility
• Buffer Analysis
• Stage 2 – Evaluating for Risk Analysis
• Stage 3 – Analyzing Interview Responses
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PHASE 1: DETERMINING LANDSLIDE SUSCEPTIBILITY • Data Sources
• Autocad drawings
• Aerial photography
• Satellite imagery
• DEM
• Interviews
PHASE 1: DETERMINING LANDSLIDE SUSCEPTIBILITY • Data Sources
• Autocad drawings
• Aerial photography
• Satellite imagery
• DEM
• Interviews
PHASE 1: DETERMINING LANDSLIDE SUSCEPTIBILITY • Data Sources
• Autocad drawings
• Aerial photography
• Satellite imagery
• DEM
• Interviews
PHASE 1: DETERMINING LANDSLIDE SUSCEPTIBILITY • Data Sources
• Autocad drawings
• Aerial photography
• Satellite imagery
• DEM
• Interviews
PHASE 1: DETERMINING LANDSLIDE SUSCEPTIBILITY • Model Inputs
• Slope
• Soil type
• Land Cover type
PHASE 1: DETERMINING LANDSLIDE SUSCEPTIBILITY • Landslide Susceptibility Model
• Normalization of basemaps
• Weighting
• Overall Landslide Susceptibility Map
PHASE 1: BUFFER ANALYSIS • Evaluation for impact from continued development
• ~50ft surrounding portions of built development
• Weighted
• Overall Landslide Susceptibility Map - rerun
PHASE 2: EVALUATING FOR RISK PERCEPTION • Data sources
• 6 weeks in the field – Aguas Calientes
• 25 semi-structured interviews
• Sketch mapping
• GPS point data
PHASE 3: ANALYZING INTERVIEW RESPONSES • Geospatial queries based on interview data
• Examine relationship between perception and proximity to susceptibility
RESULTS Stage 1: Overall Landslide Susceptibility & Buffer Analysis
RESULTS Stage 1: Overall Landslide Susceptibility & Buffer Analysis
RESULTS Stage 2: Evaluating for risk perception
RESULTS Stage 3: Analyzing interview responses
• “..todo lo quiero construir” (“…all I want to build”) • “no hay respeto por la autoridad de Municipio…ellos estan preocupado con
dinero” (“there is no respect for the authority of the Municipal government…they are preoccupied with money”)
• “no hay diferencias; son igual; si, ocurren aqui; si, empiezan en lo mismo lugar” (“there are no differences; they are the same; yes, they occur here; yes, they begin in the same place”)
- Female, Owner of juice bar, local market
RESULTS Stage 3: Analyzing interview responses
FUTURE APPLICATION & EXTENSIONS • Application of model to debris flow modeling
• Assessment of areas uphill using variable buffer
• Acquisition of better data
• Application to other locations
• Refinement of model
CHALLENGES REMAIN
FUTURE APPLICATION
Special Thanks to: Advisors: Steven R. Hick & Joseph K. Berry Committee: J. Michael Daniels, Kris Kuzera
Research Assistance and Support: Mario Escobar, Eric Boschmann, Rene Pumayalli, Carlos Inca Gonzales, Allison Wagner, Amir Siraj, Joseph Hoover
Financial Assistance from the Laurence C. Herold Fund
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