Course 5: NBA Strategy

Point Guard Selection

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Lesson Overview

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I. Point guard selection fundamentals

II. Advanced point guard research tips

I. PG Fundamentals

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Key Elements

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Stat Notes

Minutes Recent minutes will tell how much opportunity is available

Pace Teams who run will have more chances to score

Usage Rate Point guards control team usage rates

Assist/Turnover Ratio Very important with turnovers subtracted on FD

Defense vs. Position All-in-one matchup indicator, featured in RotoQL app

Def. Personal Fouls Is the defender prone to giving up free points?

Value When players are injured, use projected minutes to find value

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Fantasy Production

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Position Average FD Points*

Point Guard 39.5

Shooting Guard 35.3

Small Forward 36.3

Power Forward 41.74

Center 42.93

* Data from 2015-2016 NBA season from Rotogrinders

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Scoring System

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Stat DK Points FD Points

2-point FG +2.0 PT +2.0 PT

3-point FG +3.5 PT +3.0 PT

Free throw +1.0 PT +1.0 PT

Rebound +1.25 PT +1.2 PT

Assist +1.5 PT +1.5 PT

Steal +2.0 PT +2.0 PT

Block +2.0 PT +2.0 PT

Turnover -0.5 PT -1.0 PT

Double-double +1.5 PT N/A

Triple-double +3.0 PT N/A

Lineup8 players (PG, SG, SF, PF, C, G, F, Util)

9 players (PG, PG, SG, SG, SF, SF, PF, PF, C)

● Point guards tend to have the ball in their hands○ More opportunities

● Can rack up both assists and turnovers. ○ Avoid low AST / TO ratio

● Double doubles are more prevalent - points and assists

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Avg stats put up by PG against every NBA team*

7* Data from 2015-2016 NBA season from Rotowire

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True DvP vs Defensive Rating & Pace

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* Data from 2015-2016 NBA season from Fantasy Labs

DR - opponent team’s defensive rating or points allowed per 100 possessions

Pace - possessions per game

II. PG Research Tipsfor Lineups

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Z-score

10Source: Wikipedia

● Z-score or standard score is the number of standard deviations a value is above the the average; z-scores can be positive, zero or negative.

● For sports, the z-score measures how much a player’s performance deviates from the average

● Because z-scores are normalized, we will use them compare different positions like centers and guards.

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Z-Score by Position

11Source: RotoworldNote: data is from FanDuel’s 2014-15 NBA Season

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Top 25 Z-Scores for Point Guards

12Source: numberFireNote: data is from FanDuel’s 2015-16 NBA Season

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PG-Usage

13Source: RotoworldNote: data is from FanDuel’s 2014-15 NBA Season

9-cat-z-scores

Usage (%)

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NBA Lineup Example

14* Data Provided from DraftKings