Course 3: MLB Strategy

To Chalk or Not to Chalk

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Lesson Overview

● Chalk overview

● When to go chalk

● When to fade chalk

● How to implement chalking

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Chalk Overview

What are chalk players?

● “Obvious” favorites that are highly owned and likely to perform well● If 7 out of 10 lineups in a tournament have Bryce Harper, he would be considered to be

70% owned

How do chalk players affect cash lineups?

● Chalk players are considered safe picks, so several chalk plays could be included

How do chalk players affect tournament lineups?

● Don’t ignore chalk, but consider going against the grain in some slots

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Factors Behind Ownership

Source: DFS Mancave4

Ownership Factor Notes

Vegas Over / Under, Predicted Runs

Obvious Matchups Hitters vs. Strasberg will likely be low-owned

Value Price changes, disparity between FanDuel / DraftKings

Top Hitter and Pitcher Parks Coors, Minnesota, Texas (Hitters) PNC, Marlins (Pitchers)

QL Wire Content “Expert picks” usually lead to higher-owned

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Streaky Play’s Effect on DK Ownership Historically

Source: DraftKings Playbook

● Historically on DraftKings, a player is owned 3% after below-average game

● However, the average ownership jumps to 4% after one game of above-average play

● That trend continues with each successive above average performance

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Predicting Player Ownership

Source: Fantasy Labs

Statistic Correlation with Actual Ownership %

Batting Order 0.1328

Projected Runs 0.1868

Player Salary 0.2891

● None are strongly correlated but player salary is the strongest indicator (perfect

correlation has a value of 1)

● Predicting ownership is an imperfect exercise

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When to Go Chalk

Saahil’s $10,000 Lineup - FanDuel Grand Slam

● Clayon Kershaw ($12,900, 35.5% owned)

● Derek Dietrich ($2,100, 49.9% owned)

● Jonathan Villar ($2,800, 21% owned)

● Domingo Santana ($2,500, 10.4% owned)

Why did it make sense to go chalk here?

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When to Go Chalk

Best Practice Example

Top player with great matchup Kershaw vs San Diego Padres

Backup player moves into leadoff spot Marlins’ Derek Dietrich replaces Dee Gordon

Correlated players Milwaukee’s Santana and Villar

Dietrich Gordon Villar Santana

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When to Fade Chalk

● Baseball is a high volatility sport

○ Value in fading chalk

● Ex. When Ownership > Probability of High Output

○ Dietrich’s probability to outperform value is 20%

○ His projected ownership is 40%

○ Result: Fade him

Dietrich

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