The Three Most Valuable Position Players in MLB

University of FloridaRonnie Socash

RJ WalshTanner CrouchDanny Lueck

Table of Contents

1.Preliminary Process – Find the original pool of players2.Statistical Analysis – Projecting Future Performance3.Market Value – Comparable players; predict future contracts 4.Risks – Identify potential pitfalls5.Identification – Five Most Valuable Position Players6.Case Study – Analysis of the final cut7.The Final Three

Preliminary Process

• Step 1: Identify the original pool of players– Position player WAR leaders– Future and recent top prospects

• Step 2: Build a database of 20 possible players– Name, Team, Age, Seasons Played, Games

Played, WAR over last three seasons (if applicable)

The Top Candidates

Projecting Future WAR

R2 = .91

Database of players from 1986 - 2016

WAR = -3.9352 + 36*(age) - .0062*(age2)

Statistical Analysis

Apply the percentage change from year to year to each player

Use the average of the last two seasons of WAR for each player

Example: Nolan ArenadoAge at 2017 Opening Day: 25

2015 WAR: 4.52016 WAR: 5.2

(5.2 + 4.5) / 2 = 4.9 WAR

2017 projection: 4.9 * (slope change from “24 to 25”) = 4.9 * (1.049073) = 5.1 WAR

2018 projection: 5.1 * (slope change from “25 to “26”)

= 5.1 * (1.036205) = 5.3 WAR

Process repeated through the 2021 season

Converting WAR Into Dollars

$7 million per marginal win in 2017 5% increase each year.

Nolan Arenado:–2017: 5.1 predicted WAR * ($7,000,000) = $35,616,028.35–2018: 5.3 predicted WAR * ($7,350,000) = $38,750,766.66–Continue through 2021–Add all five dollar figures to calculate total 5-year future value in terms of WAR–Over next 5 seasons: 26.7 WAR and $207,276,574.20 Production Value

Projecting Future SalaryStep 1: Identify Comparable PlayersComparable Player Qualifications:

-Same Position-Within 3 years of age at time of breakout/peak- Peak/Breakout seasons within 1.5 WAR

League Projected Salary Increase

Similar to the Qualifying Offer, we used the average of the top 125 contracts over the last 10 years

We then created a linear model to predict future increases

• R2 value of .96• Avg. Salary = -1.14B +

573,300*(year)

Example: Manny MachadoComparable Players: Pablo Sandoval and Kyle Seager

• Machado entered 1st year of arbitration after 6.8 WAR season

• Sandoval entered 1st year of arbitration after 5.3 WAR season

• Seager entered 1st year of arbitration after 5.4 WAR season

• Machado (24), Sandoval (25), Seager (27)

• All play third base

Projecting Arbitration• Use the comparable

player salaries during similar career points

• Calculate the percentage of the QO that players made in those years

• Adjust the current player’s salary to reflect the percent change

Adjusted for Salary Increase

Final Adjustment If Machado’s production was equal to Seager or Sandoval, we

would expect Machado to receive same percentage of the QO.

In order to adjust for the difference in production of the current player, we then multiplied the projected salary by the percent difference in WAR over the three previous seasons.

Adjusted Salary Projection

The Top Eight

The Five Finalists

Mookie Betts – Red Sox CFTOTAL SURPLUS VALUE:

$221,626,813.59

Mike Trout – Angels CFTOTAL SURPLUS VALUE:

$236,765,429.42

Francisco Lindor - Indians SSTOTAL SURPLUS

VALUE: $247,817,480.85

Kris Bryant – Cubs 3B/OFTOTAL SURPLUS VALUE:

$258,096,445.52

Corey Seager – Dodgers SSTOTAL SURPLUS VALUE:

$311,915,858.51

Sample Size AnalysisA balancing act between younger and older players

Younger – can be paid at a discount, but, less of a track record

Older – command more money, but, proven track recordVariance formula

Mean = (career WAR) / (career seasons played)Divided by (# of games played) – 1

Fielding Profile

Player UZR DRSLindor 20.8 17Betts 17.8 32

Bryant 5.3 (3B) / 6.2 (OF) 9Trout -0.3 6

Seager 10.6 0

The players that derive the most value from their defense are Francisco Lindor and Mookie Betts.

FanGraphs uses UZR as its main component of WAR, and all five players are within 20 runs of each other.

Assuming the value of one win is 10 runs, the most WAR defense would likely account for is two wins.

Defensive Metric Variability

According to the FanGraphs glossary, there is a high level of variability in UZR. For example, UZR is given a five-run error range in either direction. Therefore, a UZR of +10 could be either +5 or +15.

Because FanGraphs’ WAR rating uses defensive metrics that are less exact to evaluate, we believe that offensive performance should be weighted more heavily than defense in terms of predicting future performance.

2016 Player ProfilesPlayer Soft % Med % Hard % wRC+ wOBATrout 12.0 46.3 41.7 171 .418

Bryant 17.0 42.7 40.3 149 .396Seager 12.7 47.6 39.7 137 .372Betts 17.4 49.2 33.4 135 .379Lindor 17.2 55.2 27.5 112 .340

Mike Trout has the best wRC+, Hard Hit %, and wOBA

There seems to be a slight correlation between Hard Hit % and wRC+

Accounting for Changes in the Game

In late May, ESPN reported that MLB’s Competition Committee agreed to raise the strike zone.

The Strike Zone is to be moved to the top of the hitter’s knees from “the hollow beneath the kneecap” currently.

With fastball velocity continuing to increase, we believe that this will result in more pitchers challenging hitters up in the zone.

The “bottom of the zone” will no longer belong to pitchers.

Tying It All TogetherWe believe that Corey Seager and Kris Bryant are

going to be the most positively affected by an upward shift in the strike zone.

Francisco Lindor is the player most likely to be negatively affected by the strike zone shift.

We do not believe Mike Trout will be particularly affected in any drastic way due to his five full seasons of high-level performance. If pitchers have not figured him out by now, there is no indication that they will.

Mike Trout

#3

1. TOTAL SURPLUS VALUE:$236,765,429.42

2. Four years of Team Control

3. Best Hard Hit %, wOBA, and wRC+

4. Projected 50.7 WAR between 2017-2021

1. TOTAL SURPLUS VALUE: $258,096,445.52

2. Five years of Team Control3. 2nd best Hard Hit % and 2nd

highest wRC+4. Projected 41.4 WAR from

2017-2021

Kris Bryant

#2

1. TOTAL SURPLUS VALUE: $311,915,858.51

2. Five years of Team Control3. 3rd best Hard Hit % and 3rd

highest wRC+4. Projected 47.2 WAR from

2017-2021

Corey Seager

#1

Questions?