23
The Power of Problem Finding and Storytelling Irene J. Petrick, Ph.D. [email protected] Irene J. Petrick & Russ Martinelli Webinar October 29, 2015 Russ Martinelli r [email protected]

Roadmapping: The power of problem finding and storytelling

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  • The Power of Problem Finding and Storytelling

    Irene J. Petrick, [email protected]

    Irene J. Petrick & Russ Martinelli

    WebinarOctober 29, 2015

    Russ [email protected]

  • Reviewing the Strategic Roadmapping Life Cycle

  • Call to action

    STRATEGIC IMPERATIVE: An external competitive threat creates an appetite for change and prompts the organization to identify strategic goals

    ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT: Brainstorming sessions about events that may occur in the future help map the lay of the land

    TRENDS & ASSUMPTIONS: Discussions while walking the wall identify key trends and assumptions. Assumptions help teams question their dominant logic.

    TREND PRIORITIZATION: Voting through wisdom of the crowd helps to identify the few critical trends. Filtering is based on the companys strategic imperative

    CRITICAL TRENDS AND ASSUMPTIONS AS INPUTS TO STORYTELLING: Prioritized trends and the assumptions identified are used as input to small groups developing scenarios.

    STORY TELLING & PROBLEM FINDING: Small groups take 2-4 critical trends and envision a future scenario around those trends. The group tells a story about that future world and the problems that exist in it, often from the point of view of the end user.

    Envisioning the future from the outside in

  • Roadmapping team discuss Assessment Roadmap events

    Creating & analyzing assessment roadmaps walking the wall

    Key outcomes from the assessment session:

    1. Assumptions2. Trends3. Problems4. Minority report

  • Using crowd sourcing to filter environmental trends

    Key outcomes from trend analysis: 1. Call to action and strategic

    intent used to prioritize2. Cross-disciplinary perspective3. Top trends identified4. Used to create future scenarios

    Many trends some more important than others

  • Example: Sample trends from environmental assessment

    Any time, any device, anywhere access to content expectation is increasing

    Shared ownership of vehicles will increase in emerging markets

    Governments fund 'smart city' development (including smart roads)

    Pay-as-you-drive insurance increases

    Governments becoming more reliant on technology to collect vehicle revenue

    Multiple cameras in automobiles become ubiquitous

    Consolidation of networks in the vehicle will occur

    Mobile devices make the automobile a dumb terminal

    The number and diversity of sensors in the automobile increases

    Avionics technology to lead automobile technology

  • Call to action

    STRATEGIC IMPERATIVE: An external competitive threat creates an appetite for change and prompts the organization to identify strategic goals

    ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT: Brainstorming sessions about events that may occur in the future help map the lay of the land

    TRENDS & ASSUMPTIONS: Discussions while walking the wall identify key trends and assumptions. Assumptions help teams question their dominant logic.

    TREND PRIORITIZATION: Voting through wisdom of the crowd helps to identify the few critical trends. Filtering is based on the companys strategic imperative

    CRITICAL TRENDS AND ASSUMPTIONS AS INPUTS TO STORYTELLING: Prioritized trends and the assumptions identified are used as input to small groups developing scenarios.

    STORY TELLING & PROBLEM FINDING: Small groups take 2-4 critical trends and envision a future scenario around those trends. The group tells a story about that future world and the problems that exist in it, often from the point of view of the end user.

    Envisioning the future through storytelling

  • Connection to design thinking a discipline that uses the designers sensibility and

    methods to match peoples needs with what is technologically feasible and that a viable business strategy can convert into customer value and market opportunity. -- Tim Brown, IDEO

    We need to connect with the people end of the story to help teams convert need into demand

    More recently, design thinking has evolved into a way that helps devise and manage strategy by

    Anticipating the ecosystem and context Anticipating barriers to adoption and hurdles to public

    acceptance Systematically preparing the environment in advance

    Storytelling

  • Companies often fail to see the future because of Innovation blindness the inability to see how the future might unfold in a way that is different than the past

    Experts see the world from a very focused perspective

    Experts project their experiences

    Storytelling

  • Escaping blindness Get past what we know Use imagination to discover what might be Free constraints of our experiences & see

    world through another characters eyes (end user)

    The power of the Three Act Plot Structure to drive disruptive innovation

    Storytelling

  • Act 1: Situation, persona, experiences Begin with our future trends

    The 2+1 approach (2 critical trends + 1 other) helps identify non-obvious future states

    Create a story about this future Draw a picture that describes the story

    Three acts of storytelling1. Situation, persona, experiences2. The conflict to be resolved3. The solutions

    Storytelling

  • Storytelling Act 1: Create a story

  • Example: Using pictures to describe the story

    Storytelling Act 1: Create a story

  • Problem finding Identify non-obvious problems End user perspective

    (avoids the expert knows best) Outside in view

    (reduces the impact of dominant logic) Taking aim before firing

    (limits the rush to judgement)

    Storytelling Act 2: Problem Finding

  • Strategic problem solving Linking non-obvious problems to

    multiple potential solutions From an investment perspective,

    identifying common ingredients across multiple possible solutions

    Identifying critical points across the value stream

    Identifying the control points in the value stream to identify key strategic partners

    Identifying the value points to consider different business models

    Storytelling Act 3: Problem solving

  • Strategic Solution #1:Make the automobile a computing and communications hubthat accesses the drivers profile in the cloud, knows the drivers preferences and keeps track of driving information including habits, routes, speeds, etc.

    Strategic Solution #2: Provide more value in the supply chain by: Integrating multiple

    modules within the automobile

    Creating a telematics services platform

    Example: Sample strategic solutions

    Storytelling Act 3: Problem Solving

  • The Strategic Roadmapping Life Cycle

  • Example: Identified technology needs

    Feeding the Strategic Planning Process

    Technology Needs and Gaps PortfolioStory / Scenario 1 Story / Scenario 2 Story / Scenario 3 Common needs Gaps

    Technology Categories

    1. Customize based on pre-, during-, and post-activity; 2. pumps for dosage

    Speed 1.Gel or best-in-class (Liquid-gels or FAA)

    1. During activity: liquid technology; 2. inhaler (faster than liquid)

    * Liquid technology, *gels, * dissolving technology

    Airborn technology; How do we do behind-the-counter direct injection (epi-pen)?

    Duration1. 12-hour or best-in-class

    1.Sustained-release; 2.patches (convenience)

    * Sustained and/or controlled release technologies (systemic or topical)

    Combination with existing formula & r-technology; pre- and during- applications

    Sensory

    1.Homeopathic; 2.flavors

    1.Smell; 2.Flavor (to help deliver speed); 3.Energy-boost (+caffeine); 4. ODT flavors; 5.Smart Gel (self-warm/cold gel)

    1.Superior flavors; 2.Taste-masking; first class products (over generics); 3. Alternative forms (ODTs, mixins, gummies); 4.Texture

    * Flavor (personalized, better tasting), * Texture, * Forms

    Build competency for quick prototyping and experiential testing for consumer insights (+2); Flavor production may need to be outsourced

    Information Communication

    1.RFID (track inventory by phone), barcode; 2.Re-order and re-stock; 3. Build a dialog and engage directly with consumer; 4.Social media;

    1.Direct connect to consumer portal (educates consumer re: regiments and medication on per-activity basis); 2.Partnerships for app

    1.Partnering for development of smartphone app and software system (for gathering, processing, and sharing information); 2.Delivering relevent information (language translation)

    * Direct to consumer connection; * Partner for applications for entire regime (gather, process, share info); * Ingredient-qualifying (Non-GMO, dye-free, calories, sugar-free, natural) - global

    Language translation: Software applications

    Packaging

    1.Kit design and development; single-use packets (similar look-and-feel); convenient and portable

    1.Delivery of active performance relief: application, pressure, spray; 2.Ergonomic design (elderly active)

    1.Superior dosing mechanisms; 2.Integrate with iPad/computer use; 3.RFID (product recognition to deliver relevent information);

    * Balance between consumer delight and ownability versus cost; * Dosing control and safety; * Ergonomics (specific needs); * RFID

    E-ink; Safety packaging in small packaging (currently more expensive, historically killed projects); Ergonomics (easier to open, in some cases)

    Call to Action

    Pfizer Call to Action

    "By 2020, we will deliver consumer-driven/consumer-relevant Pain Management technology platforms that will garner $100M in global sales, further secure our market leader position, and expand coverage in pain management."

    Env Assessment_Roadmap

    Pfizer (Advil and Thermacare - Pain Management) Environmental Assessment Map - November 2012

    20132014201520162017201820192020

    Tipping Points

    Consumer Expectations and Characteristics

    Global MarketsDEVELOPED

    EMERGING

    EconomicsMACRO-

    HEALTHCARE

    Regulatory

    Distribution (Path to Consumer)

    Competition

    Sustainability

    Supply Chain and Manufacturing

    Relatively Certain: Yellow Uncertain: Pink

    Pink:Uncertain

    Yellow: Fairly Certail

    Consumers look for health inforrmation from pharmacists and pharmacy information hubs before doctors

    Consumers seeking learning and information from social networks

    Consumers will spend more time "outside" and demand "on-the-go" convenient products and packages

    As consumers age, safe and gentle products (no drug interference) will grow in appeal

    Consumers prefer solutions that allow for 12-hour dosage

    Increased demand for topical therapies

    Consumers becoming more "value-oriented" - cost pressure becomez more impoartant

    Portable heat and cold therapy iused during/before sporting activities to maximize performance

    Smart phones are the first place where consumers seek treatment information

    Independent research shows ThermaCare reduces work loss time among chronic back sufferers

    Pain relief app developed. Enter pain info and bring output to doctor or pharmacist for solution

    Aging baby-boomers (who refuse to slow down) will want safe pain relief for daily use

    Increased interest in non-medicated treatment (electric, magnetic)

    Familiarity with epi-pen paves way for first OTC injectable product

    Diagnosis of pain from internet doctors

    Medical records access available through internet

    Customers will expect more customized pain solutions, ie gender, age, severity, longevity, etc

    Designer-made devices available

    Quicker response to pain relief is available

    Thermal imaging will allow immediate diagnosis of fever in children (via smartphone)

    Consumers want inexpensive tools to diagnose fever

    Consumers want personalized dose for your specific pain

    Combination of Thermacare and electrical nerve stimulation becomes economically vialble as a disposable system

    Routine MRI scan to diagnose routine pain management available

    Genetic finger-printing enables identification of pain-susceptible sub-populations (migraine, r. arthritis, etc) -

    Consumers have stressful lives and want easier to use products - week long duration

    Using your phone as a pain relief device

    External therapy for children's pain and fever becomes the norm

    New technology that allows for safe and effective delivery of systemic actives available

    Inhaler form of IBU - fastest delivery available

    One tiny patch relieves all pain

    Pain prevention technology highly available like vaccine

    Older consumers can't swallow - want patches or IV pain solution

    Cars assess not only its own mechanical health, but the health of its driver

    Consumers can take a picture with their smartphone of their pain and get an immediate diagnosis

    External market grows 3-5% in a year in US

    Consumers become more interested in natural treatment

    Sachet packaging grows

    Curative therapies become required for payment

    Rise in Ibuprohen and Ibuprophen Liquid Capsules in LAT AM

    Mexico registration 3 months for products that have US registration

    Globalization (ex-EU) of topical Ibuprofen (A PAC likes topical formulations)

    How to penetrate US hispanic population?

    Topical Diclofenac launches OTC

    Far east consumer is biggest growing middle class

    Pfizer is recognized as leader and most trusted in eye's of consumer

    Dental pain increasese due to more sugar in diet

    Back pain, joint pain, arthritis due to obesity

    Demographics of aging - ?% by 2015 will be > 50 in developed markets

    As consumer diets get worse, obesity and dental pain cause major need for relief

    Obesity and diabetes will influence pain solutions, ie personalized size

    Demographics of obesity - ? % by 2015 will be obese in developed market

    Alternative forms to FAA - 12 hr, Gemini sold to Lat Am markets

    Celebrex switches to OTC

    Internal and externals combine with TCMs in Asian Markets

    Geographic diffusion of existing PCH products is "complete"

    Major retail chains spread across China enabling HUGE Advil launch

    China surpasses US as #1 economy

    Internal and topical Advil enters Japan market

    Advil like a "Coke model" - reach out for pain relief anytime

    Emerging markets will represent more sales in pain than rest of the world

    Generics taking increasing market share because of poor economy

    Longer lifetimes combined with tough economy requires money to be stretched farther

    Fewer workers contributions to government programs due to aging population

    Low birth rates means shortage of children as caregivers for the elderly

    Current economy driving customers to generics

    Insurers and governments support generic pain products

    The "middle man" is key medical consultant of the family - for their kids, self, and parents

    Push toward self-diagnosis and treatment

    Longer lifetimes create slower degredation of health

    More joint replacement and at a younger age

    More treatments available OTC at lower cost

    Ibuprofen safety challenges

    Virtual pharmacist - smartphone OTC navagation

    Fewer things/meds covered by insurance, increasing significance of value to customer

    Higher costs of healthcare drives consumers to be more productive

    Communication with your doctor is primarily through your internet account

    Doctor visit throgh webcam is routine

    Personal/online medical practicing will become more prevelent (iprescription provided via email)

    30% of US population over age of 50 has at least one artificial joint

    Retirement age increases beyond 65 in US

    Mechanistic understanding of causes of pain - diagnosis, prevention, cure

    Use of "Doc-in-a-box" as general practitioner becomes > 50% of population

    Payers will require better knowledge of underlying condition before paying for treatment

    Retail clinic visits exceed doctor office visits in the US

    Ibuprofen commoditized - further innovation reaches point of poor investment

    Ibuprofen commoditized

    New body replacement parts becomes affordable to middle class

    Fiscal insolvency of a western nationalized healthcare system

    APAP losing safety "halo"

    Higher reg standards in LAT AM

    Increased regulation of APAP dosing and packaging options (limiting amount of tablets)

    Changes in regus on maximum dosage of APAP (may be different in different countries)

    Celebrex patent expires in the US (May 2014)

    Celebrex patent expires in the US (May 2014)

    Celebrex Rx to OTC switch

    "Behind the counter" OTC clasification becomes law in US

    Pharmacist has care-decision authority

    Regulatory response to "alternative pain solutions" from ignore to srict guidelines

    Unified drug approval process in Latin America

    China registration lead time reduced to 2 years (from 5 years)

    Cannabis is decriminalized in US

    Dollar Stores will grow as channel given need for value

    Increasing use of the internet will lead to more online purchasing

    Thermacare in alternate channels, ie Sport Authority

    Shoppers are visitng more specialized stores vs. one-stop shopping

    DC models - "Arm" model in India

    Amazon is a key channel for distribution

    Online ordering and direct to consumer sales captures > 20% market

    Subscription or auto-refill in direct to consumer

    Retailers have doctors available for sufferers

    Online pharmacy sales grow to 20% of total

    Direct to consumer sales

    Thermacare in alternate channels - Home Depot, Sports Authoriity, Dr. Offices, Aiport Kiosk

    High-end vending machines and kiosks become prevalent distribution for OTC

    Heat wraps are endorsed and sold by physical therapists

    "Barefoot doctors" program launches in the US, changes delivery of basic healthcare in US

    Distribution and seller is pharmacist to distribute healthcare products

    Direct to consumer channel represents majority of device sales

    Retailers and pharmacists use predictive analytics to predict pain and influence purchases

    Pain relief spas offer 30 minute relief sessions for most pain types

    Total pain solution "pop-up" stores

    Own OTC - in order for competition to play... theY do by our rules (eg. Gillette razor category)

    Digital will represent the majority of pain sales

    Thermacare and Advil flagship store or kiosk

    Shoppers buy OTC primarily from their phones

    Bio-active peptides become available to treat arthritis and inflammation

    Children's IBU - shake-in flavors

    Children's Tylenol back on market

    Return of Children's Tylenol

    J&J re-enters children's IBU market

    Other analgesics coming off patent

    Growing trends in alternative medicines (ie accupuntcure) perceived as safer by consumers

    Will another pain relief go OTC?

    Generic sodium IBU launches in US

    Tylenol returning to market with backlog of innovation - new news/products

    TENS units are sold in stores (pharmacies, Walmart) in addition to online

    Voltaren launches heat patches throughout Europe

    OTC pain patch with systemic effects launches

    Reckett (spelling?) in USA pain market

    Thermacare P&G patents expire

    Store brand owns pain market as consumers demand best value

    Topical didofanac as OTC in US

    Nuromol (spelling?) launches in US (Rx?)

    GSK in USA pain market

    Is a multii-day IBU patch possible?

    Patch technology to deliver long-lasting, time-released, systemic delivery of pain relief drugs (plus topical and sensory relief

    Generic 12-hr IBU launches in US

    Personalized extemporaneous compounding of OTC products in vending machines debuts in US

    Battery technology (shrinking size and longer duration) leads to electrical heat or cold wrap

    Competition launches a less expensive heat wrap

    Moist heat is introduced to consumers by either Pfizer or competition

    Altria (Philip Morris) launches OTC canabis for pain relief

    Pain prevention claims/benefit become cost of entry - changes the usage occassion and trigger

    Generic IBU-APAP launches in US

    Mechanistic treatment for OA

    Needle-free/painless injections become economically viable allowing direct application of medication to target area

    Walmart sustainability score card - based on carbon footprint

    Increase in usages of "natural" therapies

    Less packaging waster - post-consumer packaging materials

    Retailers want fewer SKUs

    PCH sustainability strategy becomes more defined

    Biodegradable bottle first used for OTC drug

    J&J captures "sustainability equity" in the mind of the consumer with Tylenol program

    Concern over drug byproducts in sewage contaminating

    Sustainability strategy a requirement for PCH for pain brands to continue building trust with consumers

    Elimination of cartons

    Legislation is US driving sustainability 100% recycled packaging

    Transparent and commercialized stories regarding PCH sustainable manufacturing practices pupport Advil equity and trust

    Manufacturing packaging strategy across product SKUs

    Rapid-release soft gelatin capsule technology becomes available

    Concern of consumer preference for having gelatin - what if another BSE/TSE issue?

    Africa becomes next labor-market - sourcing and manufacturing possible

    Late stage product differentiation allows/facilitates specific products/ combinations (manufacture to order)

    Are there advantages of making dosage form in country to allow preferable approvals?

    Diclofenac switches to OTC

    China reduces approval time

    Sodium Ibuprophen

    Moist Heat Introduced

    Thermacare patent expires

    Osteoarthritis cure

    Env Assessment_Session Detail

    Pfizer (Advil and Thermacare - Pain Management) Environmental Assessment Map - November 2012

    20132014201520162017201820192020

    Consumer Expectations and Characteristics

    Global MarketsDEVELOPED

    EMERGING

    EconomicsMACRO-

    HEALTHCARE

    Regulatory

    Distribution (Path to Consumer)

    Competition

    Sustainability

    Supply Chain and Manufacturing

    Relatively Certain: Yellow Uncertain: Pink

    Pink

    Yellow

    Consumers look for health inforrmation from pharmacists and pharmacy information hubs before doctors

    Consumers seeking learning and information from social networks

    "Device + Delivery Systems"

    Consumers will spend more time "outside" and demand "on-the-go" convenient products and packages

    As consumers age, safe and gentle products (no drug interference) will grow in appeal

    Increased demand for topical therapies

    Sachet packaging grows

    Curative therapies become required for payment

    Rise in Ibuprohen and Ibuprophen Liquid Capsules in LAT AM

    Mexico registration 3 months for products that have US registration

    Globalization (ex-EU) of topical Ibuprofen (A PAC likes topical formulations)

    Smart packaging with dose delivery personalized

    Dental pain increasese due to more sugar in diet

    Back pain, joint pain, arthritis due to obesity

    Diagnosis of pain from internet doctors

    Medical records access through internet

    Customers will expect more customized pain solutions, ie gender, age, severity, longevity, etc

    Alternative forms to FAA - 12 hr, Gemini solds to Lat Am markets

    Consumers want inexpensive tools to diagnose fever

    Consumers want personalized dose for your specific pain

    Combination of Thermacare and electrical nerve stimulation becomes economically vialble as a disposable system

    Routine MRI scan to diagnose routine pain management

    Thermacare as a sinus treatment

    Consumers have stressful lives and want easier to use products - week long duration

    Geographic diffusion of existing PCH products is "complete"

    Insurers and governments support generic pain products

    The "middle man" is key medical consultant of the family - for their kids, self, and parents

    Push toward self-diagnosis and treatment

    Longer lifetimes create slower degredation of health

    Mechanistic understanding of causes of pain - diagnosis, prevention, cure

    Dollar Stores will grow as channel given need for value

    Increasing use of the internet will lead to more online purchasing

    Thermacare in alternate channels, ie Sport Authority

    Shoppers are visitng more specialized stores vs. one-stop shopping

    DC models - "Arm" model in India

    Will another pain relief go OTC?

    Bio-active peptides become available to treat arthritis and inflammation

    Children's IBU - shake-in flavors

    Amazon is a key channel for distribution

    Online ordering and direct to consumer sales captures > 20% market

    Subscription or auto-refill in direct to consumer

    Retailers have doctors available for sufferers

    Online pharmacy sales grow to 20% of total

    Direct to consumer sales

    Thermacare in alternate channels - Home Depot, Sports Authoriity, Dr. Offices, Aiport Kiosk

    High-end vending machines and kiosks become prevalent distribution for OTC

    Heat wraps are endorsed and sold by physical therapists

    Fewer things/meds covered by insurance, increasing significance of value to customer

    "Barefoot doctors" program launches in the US, changes delivery of basic healthcare in US

    Distribution and seller is pharmacist to distribute healthcare products

    Direct to consumer channel represents majority of device sales

    Is a multii-day IBU patch possible?

    Patch technology to deliver long-lasting, time-released, systemic delivery of pain relief drugs (plus topical and sensory relief

    Retailers and pharmacists use predictive analytics to predict pain and influence purchases

    Pain relief spas offer 30 minute relief sessions for most pain types

    Total pain solution "pop-up" stores

    Altria (Philip Morris) launches OTC canabis for pain relief

    Pain prevention claims/benefit become cost of entry - changes the usage occassion and trigger

    APAP losing safety "halo"

    Higher regulation standards in LAT AM

    Increased regulation of APAP dosing and packaging options (limiting amount of tablets)

    Changes in regulations on maximum dosage of APAP (may be different in different countries)

    Celebrex patent expires in the US (May 2014)

    Celebrex Rx to OTC switch

    "Behind the counter" OTC clasification becomes law in US

    Pharmacist has care-decision authority

    China registration lead time reduced to 2 years (from 5 years)

    Cannabis is decriminalized in US

    Generic sodium IBU launches in US

    Tylenol returning to market with backlog of innovation - new news/products

    TENS units are sold in stores (pharmacies, Walmart) in addition to online

    Voltaren launches heat patches throughout Europe

    OTC pain patch with systemic effects launches

    Reckett (spelling?) in USA pain market

    Thermacare P&G patents expire

    Store brand owns pain market as consumers demand best value

    Topical didofanac as OTC in US

    Generic 12-hr IBU launches in US

    Personalized extemporaneous compounding of OTC products in vending machines debuts in US

    Battery technology (shrinking size and longer duration) leads to electrical heat or cold wrap

    Competition launches a less expensive heat wrap

    Generic IBU-APAP launches in US

    Mechanistic treatment for OA

    Needle-free/painless injections become economically viable allowing direct application of medication to target area

    Manufacturing packaging strategy across product SKUs

    Concern over drug byproducts in sewage contaminating

    Sustainability strategy a requirement for PCH or pain brands to continue building trust with consumers

    Elimination of cartons

    Children's Tylenol back on market

    Return of Children's Tylenol

    J&J re-enters children's IBU market

    Other analgesics coming off patent

    Growing trends in alternative medicines (ie accupuntcure) perceived as safer by consumers

    Walmart sustainability score card - based on carbon footprint

    Increase in usages of "natural" therapies

    Less packaging waster - post-consumer packaging materials

    Retailers want fewer SKUs

    Own OTC - in order for competition to play... the do by our rules (eg. Gillette razor category)

    Digital will represent the majority of pain sales

    Thermacare and Advil flagship store or kiosk

    Shoppers buy OTC primarily from their phones

    Nuromol (spelling?) launches in US (Rx?)

    GSK in USA pain market

    Moist heat is introduced to consumers by either Pfizer or competition

    Legislation is US driving sustainability 100% recycled packaging

    Transparent and commercialized stories regarding PCH sustainable manufacturing practices pupport Advil equity and trust

    PCH sustainability strategy becomes more defined

    Rapid-release soft gelatin capsule technology becomes available

    Biodegradable bottle first used for OTC drug

    J&J captures "sustainability equity" in the mind of the consumer with Tylenol program

    Concern of consumer preference for having gelatin - what if another BSE/TSE issue?

    African becomes next labor-market - sourcing and manufacturing possible

    Late stage product differentiation allows/facilitates specific products/combinations (manufacture to order)

    Are there advantages of making dosage form in country to allow preferable approvals?

    Familiarity with epi-pen paves way for first OTC injectable product

    In-home ultrasound or laser therapy for pain treatment and prevention (very localized)

    Combine Advil and Thermacare to "own" pain globally - "pain kits"

    Thermacare brand and adjacencies (topicals and durables)

    Thermacare by Under Armour (co-branding)

    Designer-made devices

    Quicker response to pain relief

    Thermacare expands to mobility

    Thermal imaging will allow immediate diagnosis of fever in children (via smartphone)

    Genetic finger-printing enables identification of pain-susceptible sub-populations (migraine, r. arthritis, etc) -

    Using your phone as a pain relief device

    External therapy for children's pain and fever becomes the norm

    New technology that allows for safe and effective delivery of systemic actives

    External market grows 3-5% in a year in US

    Consumers become more interested in natural treatment

    How to penetrate hispanic population as growing in US?

    Topical Diclofenac launches OTC

    Far east consumer is biggest growing middle class

    Pfiizer owning OTC category. Pfizer is recognized as leader and most trusted in eye's of consumer

    Demographics of aging - ?% by 2015 will be > 50 in developed markets

    Celebrex switches to OTC

    As consumer diets get worse, obesity and dental pain cause major need for relief

    Obesity and diabetes will influence pain solutions, ie personalized size

    Demographics of obesity - ? % by 2015 will be obese in developed market

    Internal and externals combine with TCMs in Asian Markets

    Major retail chains spread across China enabling HUGE Advil launch

    China surpasses US as #1 economy

    Internal and topical Advil enters Japan market

    Advil like a "Coke model" - reach out for pain relief anytime

    Emerging markets will represent more sales in pain than rest of the world

    Unified drug approval process in Latin America

    30% of US population over age of 50 has at least one artificial joint

    Higher costs of healthcare drives consumers to be more productive

    Communication with your doctor is primarily through your internet account

    Doctor visit throgh webcam is routine

    Retirement age increases beyond 65 in US

    Use of "Doc-in-a-box" as general practitioner becomes > 50% of population

    Payers will require better knowledge of underlying condition before paying for treatment

    New body replacement parts becomes affordable to middle class

    Generics taking increasing market share because of poor economy

    Longer lifetimes combined with tough economy requires money to be stretched farther

    More treatments available OTC at lower cost

    Ibuprofen safety challenges

    Virtual pharmacist - smartphone OTC navagation

    Regulatory response to "alternative pain solutions" from ignore (require disclaimer) to srict guidelines

    Personal/online medical practicing will become more prevelent (in-store or at home), eg prescription provided via email

    Retail clinic visits exceed doctor office visits in the US

    Ibuprofen commoditized - further innovation reaches point of poor investment

    Inhaler form of IBU - fastest delivery available

    One tiny patch relieves all pain

    Fiscal insolvency of a western nationalized healthcare system

    Pain prevention technology highly available like vaccine

    Older consumers can't swallow - want patches or IV pain solution

    Cars assess not only its own mechanical health, but the health of its driver

    Consumers can take a picture with their smartphone of their pain and get an immediate diagnosis

    Moms prefer solutions that allow for 12-hour dosage

    Consumers are becoming more "value-oriented" - cost pressure will become more impoartant

    Portable heat and cold therapy is used during/before sporting activities to maximize performance (cold is used among marathoners)

    Smart phones are the first place where consumers seek treatment information

    Independent research shows ThermaCare reduces work loss time among chronic back sufferers

    Pain relief app developed. Enter pain info and bring output to doctor or pharmacist for solution

    Aging population increases pressure on fewer workers contributions to government programs

    Low birth rates means shortage of children as caregivers for the elderly

    Current economy driving customers to generics

    More joint replacement and at a younger age

    Aging baby-boomers (who refuse to slow down) will want safe pain relief for daily use

    Increased interest in non-medicated treatment (electric, magnetic)

    Thermacare regiment - theraputic 3-day (hot, cold, hot, cold, etc...)

    Trends & Assumptions

    Environmental Assessement Trends and Assumptions (Day 1 output)

    Trends Assumptions

    Consumer Expectations and CharacteristicsValue continues to be more important in the buying decisionEnvironmental context matters

    Ease of use continues to be more desirable and speed of benefit will become more desirableRetired consumers are different from othr consumers economically (compared to younger generation, for example)

    Use of internet for diagnosis and drug distribution will become commonPeople and companies other than Pfizer will be developing apps (Pfizer cntinues to be risk adverse)

    Personalization and fashion will become a delivery decision driverEveryone values convenience nearly equally (even globally)

    Desire for targeted relief will increaseCombination products will be more desirable

    Consumers will desire more tools for self-diagnosisThere is no demonstrable advantage to a patch for drug delivery

    Consumers will desire personal dosageWe will have physical models and diagnostics that provide guidance for treatments

    Consumers will want and act on genetically-based dosing as preventative care

    Portable devices play a role in diagnosis and delivery

    Customers expect better tasting products.

    Convenience and on-the-go demand is growing

    Global Markets (Developed and Emerging)Design for convenience and accessibilityOther solutions will cause a decline in demand for IB

    Desire growing for solutions that cure root cause instead of just reliefTruly global brands can (and will) exist

    Emerging markets desire topical solutions

    Overall, worldwide population continues to age

    Obesity increasing globally: joint pain and dental pain

    Increasing desire for liquid-filled capsules for pain solutions

    Combination of natural and chemical solutions is increasing (east and west medication)

    Major retail chains in China opening more distribution

    Within 8-10 years, new molecules may threaten IB solutions

    Emerging markets becoming more open to alternative pain relief solutions

    Economics (Macro- and Healthcare)Tougher economies drive consumers to more genericsPain will always be treated when it arises (rather than strictly evidence based reimbursements)

    Exercising and activity in later years extends quality of lifeGreen will be important everywhere

    Online communication with doctor and pharmacy moves into general healthcareLabor rates continue to driving sourcing decisions

    Walk-in clinics become more preferable than going to GP (Doc-in-a-box)

    Payers requiring documentation of efficacy for reimbursement (evidence-based)

    Payers are covering less meds and driving more OTC treatment

    RegulatoryMovement toward lower doses of 'A-PAP'

    Higher regulation standards in some Latin American markets (APAC?)

    Behind the counter regulation continues to become lower in the US

    Harmonized standards increase regionally (unification of standards)

    Faster approval time continues to occur

    Medical marijuana is growing

    Distribution and Path to ConsumerOnline orders increase rapidly

    Direct to consumer sales becoming more prevalent (medications and devices)

    Pain relief SPAs are increasing

    Multi-brand pop-up stores increasing

    Category ownership migrates to the OTC market

    Retailers demanding fewer SKUs

    CompetitionElectronic pain device available in mass market

    Increasing share of generic products

    Alternative delivery mechanisms become a viable competitive threat

    More intense competition among branded products for a smaller share

    Fewer competitor missteps will occur

    Service-based offerings over product-based offerings increase (provides greater value capture)

    SustainabilityReuse/repurposing of packaging increasing

    Increase monitor and control over pharma molecules in the environment

    Use of durables is increasing

    Increased regulation over recycling

    Continuous reduction of packaging

    Supply Chain and ManufacturingManufacturing processes are becoming more scalable

    Standardization of critical processes increasing

    Localized manufacturing increases

    Brand-based strategies for packaging increases

    Personalized and customized manufacturing solutions increases

    Continued concern with naturally-produced products

    OTC counterfeiting increasing

    Minority Report

    Environmental Roadmapping Session (Day 1)

    Minority Opinions

    [1] Sustainability will become a differentiator in purchasing decisions (and will become a potential competitive threat)

    [2] Evidence based reimbursement will drive adoption

    [3] Consumers value smaller stores rather than megastores such as WalMart.

    Advil Trends Portfolio

    Advil Trend Portfolio

    TrendSELECTION CRITERIA

    Vote TotalsPriorityOPPORTUNITY

    "If this happens, we can see a direct path to success"END-USER

    "Meaningful benefit to a large population of consumer; can also provide consumers with a leap-frog solution"GLOBAL REACH

    "Will provide an opportunity to increase our global reach"OWNABLE

    "Provides and opportunity for ownable IP"THREAT

    "If this happens, we might be in trouble"

    1Consumer shopping habits changing, looking for more value for dollar spent45616101728

    2Ease of use and convenience becoming more desirable - Devices3887121196

    3Consumers seeking simpler ways to manage their lives (often through technology)33118130

    4Use of the Internet for informaiton gathering, diagnosis, ordering (direct to consumer) and drug distribution will become more common 369114145

    5Consumers will desire targeted relief - taking only Rx needed; value30465153

    6Consumers will desire more tools for self-diagnosis - emphasis on self-diagnosis; eg. home tests40103

    7Consumers will desire personal dosage and customized drug delivery solutions, including potential fashion considerations - emphasis on personalization and customization47514104205

    8Consumers will want and act on genetically-based dosing as preventative care00000

    9Portable devices play a role in diagnosis and delivery102910

    10Customers expect better tasting products - appearance and other sensory characteristics60216166229

    11Desire is growing for solutions that cure root causes instead of just relief3351131410

    12Emerging markets desire topical solutions10010

    13Worldwide population continues to age, live longer, and desires to remain more active64121251547

    14Obesity is increasing globally (resulting in more joint, dental and other pains)3191254

    15Increasing desire for fluid-filled capsules - perception of efficacy and speed of relief32142313

    16Combination of natural and chemical solutions is increasing (east and west meciations), including the use of medical marijuana2874413

    17Major retail chains in China open more distribution channels - broaden to global trade throughout the globe opens more distribution channels1220100

    18With 8-10 years new molecules Rx switches threaten IB solutions54315183181

    19Walk-in clinics become more preferable to going to the GP (doc-in-a-box) - developed markets10010

    20Payers require documentation of efficacy for reimbursement (evidence based reimbursement)00000

    21More and more consumers will be held accountable for living healthier32010

    22Movement toward lower doses in A-PAP - not Europe22000

    23Higher regulations standards in some Latin America markets - higher efficacy31020

    24Behind the counter regulation is reduced introduced in the US and gains momentum14122004

    25Harmonized standards increase regionally62040

    26Faster approval time continues to occur00000

    27Pain relief spas are increasing00000

    28Multi-brand pop-up stores increase62040

    29Retailers demand fewer SKUs - more competition for shelf space00000

    30Electric pain relief devices are increasingly available in the mass market - shift from mechanical to electrical30120

    31Alternative delivery mechanisms become a viable competitive threat - epi-pens, head-on161519

    32More intense competition among branded products for a smaller share00000

    33Fewer competitor missteps will occur22000

    34Service-based offerings over product-based offerings will increase - spas70151

    35Increased regulation of recycling promotes reuse/repurposing of packaging or use of durables - green and sustainable3315918

    36Increased monitoring and control over pharma molecules in the environment00000

    37Manufacturing processes are becoming more scalable, standardized and customizable166007

    38Localized manufacturing increases - speed to market; protectionism2763810

    39Continued consumer and regulatory concern with naturally produced (GMO) products00000

    40OTC counterfeiting increases00000

    41Genetic planning leads to preventative care70304

    42Younger generation more accepting of western Rx2738160

    43Global healthcare changing - pushing costs down; pushing to OTC23120110

    44Customized SKUs by retailers20002

    45Increasing ethics for brand value101252

    46Increased global mobility70070

    47Consumers dealing with continued increase in personal stress38772074

    48Increased globalization of competitive brands3510951822

    49Product focus on entire family - kids focus4741512119

    Person to contact about this research

    Where research output will be delivered

    Person to contact about this research

    Where research output will be delivered

    Person to contact about this research

    Where research output will be delivered

    Advil Tech Needs & Gaps

    Technology Needs and Gaps Portfolio

    Story / Scenario 1Story / Scenario 2Story / Scenario 3Scenario 5Scenario 6Common needsGaps

    Technology Categories1. Customize based on pre-, during-, and post-activity; 2. pumps for dosage

    Speed1.Gel or best-in-class (Liquid-gels or FAA)1. During activity: liquid technology; 2. inhaler (faster than liquid)* Liquid technology, *gels, * dissolving technologyAirborn technology; How do we do behind-the-counter direct injection (epi-pen)?

    Duration1. 12-hour or best-in-class1.Sustained-release; 2.patches (convenience)* Sustained and/or controlled release technologies (systemic or topical)Combination with existing formula & r-technology; pre- and during- applications

    Sensory1.Homeopathic; 2.flavors1.Smell; 2.Flavor (to help deliver speed); 3.Energy-boost (+caffeine); 4. ODT flavors; 5.Smart Gel (self-warm/cold gel)1.Superior flavors; 2.Taste-masking; first class products (over generics); 3. Alternative forms (ODTs, mixins, gummies); 4.Texture* Flavor (personalized, better tasting), * Texture, * FormsBuild competency for quick prototyping and experiential testing for consumer insights (+2); Flavor production may need to be outsourced

    Information Communication1.RFID (track inventory by phone), barcode; 2.Re-order and re-stock; 3. Build a dialog and engage directly with consumer; 4.Social media; 1.Direct connect to consumer portal (educates consumer re: regiments and medication on per-activity basis); 2.Partnerships for app1.Partnering for development of smartphone app and software system (for gathering, processing, and sharing information); 2.Delivering relevent information (language translation)* Direct to consumer connection; * Partner for applications for entire regime (gather, process, share info); * Ingredient-qualifying (Non-GMO, dye-free, calories, sugar-free, natural) - globalLanguage translation: Software applications

    Packaging1.Kit design and development; single-use packets (similar look-and-feel); convenient and portable1.Delivery of active performance relief: application, pressure, spray; 2.Ergonomic design (elderly active)1.Superior dosing mechanisms; 2.Integrate with iPad/computer use; 3.RFID (product recognition to deliver relevent information); * Balance between consumer delight and ownability versus cost; * Dosing control and safety; * Ergonomics (specific needs); * RFIDE-ink; Safety packaging in small packaging (currently more expensive, historically killed projects); Ergonomics (easier to open, in some cases)

    Advil Tech Roadmap

    Advil Technology Roadmap

    20132014201520162017201820192020

    Safety

    Information Communication and Education

    Packaging

    Efficacy, Forms, and Formulation Technology

    Product and Consumer Research

    Diagnostics

    Key Partners

    Update apps continuously

    Rx to OTC switch?

    What does this pipeline look like?

    Flavor + form preference

    - Broad study to understand global + age groups

    Dosing applicator (cup or syringe)

    Dosing calculator (package)

    Locking mechanism for kit

    Website safety support

    Research lockout devices for Flavil

    Research daily dosing system

    Understand dose related flavor change

    Develop tutorial videos for products

    Safer IBU

    - Stop stomach issues- Understand

    Smartphone apps on safety

    Flavor that changes pleasant if you take recommended, negative if you take too much

    Drug interaction and safety

    Increased concentration2x strong, less volume

    Ped Med

    Finalize lockout system

    Finalize daily dosing device

    Dosing applicator (dial up syringe)

    Safer IBU- Clinicals- Understand results

    Dosing calculator (dispenser)

    Controlled dispensing (with lockout)

    Patch safety

    Dosing applicator(Dispenser)

    Dosing applicator (pipette/clicking mechanism)

    Drug interaction = dosing calculator system

    Social media research

    Study on global brands (link)

    Web launch database/all inclusive/interactive (portal)

    Information retrieval study

    Scan barcode to pull up videos

    Dosing calculator (electronic)

    ie Apps

    Use social media (kit) study

    Kiosk research - what would it take to get our products in kiosks?

    Investigate latest IT

    Design apps

    Ped Med

    FAQ videosInternal testing

    Recomment product app- Order online- Doctor/ER visit needed- Doctor input needed- Order from this app- Symptom apps

    Understand directions and translate in different cultures

    Ped Med

    Replenish kit app

    Incorporate RFID into package

    FAQ video launch

    Investigate latest IT

    Investigate latest IT

    Investigate latest IT

    Explore- Dispensers- Applicators- Devices

    Research green packages

    - Edible- Compostable- Other

    Investigate ergonomics and modern designs + locking

    ConceptsSmaller package designs and dispensing

    - All projects

    Kit design and exploring

    Develop breakaway on-go nesting packages

    Develop scannable code on packaging for video of use + FAQs

    App design for location of nearest purchase

    Explore suppository packaging

    Design and develop ergonomic and modern packaging

    Design daily dose system

    Lockout mechanism

    - Design- Research

    Kiosk and dispensing investigation

    Design and develop increased dose dispense

    - Suspension

    Investigating voice recognition package

    - Time to reorder- Explore

    Develop sensor for expiration (text)

    Develop sensor for temp, humidity, or other problems

    - Safety

    Develop fingerprint recognition on bottle for safety

    - Custom

    Develop compounding kiosk at pharmacy for flavor dev

    Develop foil/strip package + patch

    Digital dispensing device development with scanning adjust

    - Connects to phone- Monitor

    Long-lasting IR/ER (other combos)

    Soft Gel- Internal expertise and development* Easy to swallow compared to tablets* Taste masking and fast-acting

    Celebrex

    Evaluating safer IBU (PLX technology)

    Rapid prototyping process- What internal hurdles do we need to address/change/modify?

    "Coating" of actives

    Rx to OTC switch?

    Sachet- Vita-sprint- Mix-ins

    Coated modified release parhcles (?) (safer IBU)

    Ped Med suppository explore

    Rx to OTC switch?

    Higher conc. suspension for kids (Ped Med)

    Gemini MR suspension

    MR IBU suspension

    Ketoprofen

    Rx to OTC switch?

    ODT sublingual

    Taste changing formulation (safety)

    ShotsEnergy gels

    Rx to OTC switch?

    Strips

    Patches

    Changing color ink printed on tablets

    Rx to OTC switch?

    Rx to OTC switch?

    Rx to OTC switch?

    Package messagingBrand/product's message- Form, flavor, dose- Ingredients- Safety- Play up emotions

    Consumer taste research- Taste masking and flavors

    Consumer useDaily dosing device

    Consumer use- Confirm safety and design of locking device

    SuppositoryConsumer initial use study

    Consumer use- Package sensor studies

    Consumer usePleasant -> Poor taste

    Safe dosing

    Consumer useDosing applicator and calc

    Consumer useDigital dispensing

    Consumer useStrips and patches

    Need to find out what information we can collect with the average smartphone

    Need someone watching current technologies

    Need to find out how parents want to collect health information from their children

    Need to develop something to collect, transmit, and store health metrics

    App for manual input of health metrics for analysis

    Need device and app for kit druge management

    Semi-automatic

    Develop sensor implant that gives real-time health information

    Develop sensor to detect problems

    Develop app to populate vitals and sent to and receive from medical experts

    Partner with a mobile software developer

    Need to partner with medical sensor supplier

    Partner with data security firm

    Partner with medical implant company

    Partner with medical device company

    Lockout mechanism - packaging design

    Partner with design company - lockout mechanism (Flavil)

    Educate! Build trust and market safer IBU

    Supply for lockout system

    Key partners for complementary combinations

    Topicals - Imp to develop external partner

    Complementary devices

    Coating - Imp to develop external partnership

    Study! Major drug interactions (continue throughout)

    Partnerships with Healthcare and Pharma

    Design partner - small package

    Kit partner

    Develop partnership with Delivery (ie UPS/FedEx)

    Flavor science (Monell Sensory Institute)

    Partner Tastemaking Solvent coating process

    Interaction database

    Partner with fingerprint technology, co-feasibility

    Partner with kiosk dispensing system

    Talk to technology sensor and app companies

    Strip dev - Imp to develop external partnership

    Patch dev - Imp to develop external partnership

    Flavor research- Flavor houses- Global trends

    Consumer study on product need by demographic

    Packaging (elderly)- Ergonomic- Ease of use- Portability- Combination packs

    Packaging (kids)- Dosing application- Tunable dosing- Smaller packaging- Portability- Safety (locking mechanism)

    Kit research- What does the kit include?- Who is interested?- Work w/ focus group and design to create "kit"

    From flavor and form broad data

    Rapid prototypes for evaluation by different age groups

    Consumer research- Package designs- Technology

    Products research on senior package

    Products researchSmaller packages- Testing

    Sara

    Julia

    David

    Jeff

    Jonathon Boggia

    Kevin K

    Eric

    Vanessa

    Kristine

    Eric

    David

    Jeff

    Kevin K

    Jay

    Julia

    Kristine

    Sara

    Jonathon Boggia

    Vanessa

    Denise Walters

    Joyce

    Joyce

    Jay

    Ped Med Express Scenario

    Team 1 - "Ped Med Express"

    Trends:https://www.dropbox.com/s/99argj0zm0yutx0/Trends%2C%20Scenario%20and%20Storytelling.JPG

    Scenario and Storytelling:https://www.dropbox.com/s/99argj0zm0yutx0/Trends%2C%20Scenario%20and%20Storytelling.JPG

    Problem Finding and Solution Development:https://www.dropbox.com/s/3ozthnhzrym5bqy/Problem%20Finding%20and%20Solution%20Development.JPG

    Video:https://www.dropbox.com/s/6chqm04omlf8d4z/Report%20Out%20and%20Presentation.mp4

    https://www.dropbox.com/s/99argj0zm0yutx0/Trends%2C%20Scenario%20and%20Storytelling.JPGhttps://www.dropbox.com/s/99argj0zm0yutx0/Trends%2C%20Scenario%20and%20Storytelling.JPGhttps://www.dropbox.com/s/3ozthnhzrym5bqy/Problem%20Finding%20and%20Solution%20Development.JPGhttps://www.dropbox.com/s/6chqm04omlf8d4z/Report%20Out%20and%20Presentation.mp4

    Iron Lady Scenario

    Team 2 - "Iron Lady"

    Trends:https://www.dropbox.com/s/t6vou7v3xti62ts/Trends.JPG

    Scenario and Storytelling:https://www.dropbox.com/s/n2iuj4n6ayz14dm/Scenario%20and%20Storytelling.JPG

    Problem Finding and Solution Development:https://www.dropbox.com/s/a1t7tvmcnqhkhea/Problem%20Finding%20and%20Solution%20Development.JPG

    Video:https://www.dropbox.com/s/bhk6q0zjv0qya8o/Report%20Out%20and%20Presentation.mp4

    https://www.dropbox.com/s/t6vou7v3xti62ts/Trends.JPGhttps://www.dropbox.com/s/n2iuj4n6ayz14dm/Scenario%20and%20Storytelling.JPGhttps://www.dropbox.com/s/a1t7tvmcnqhkhea/Problem%20Finding%20and%20Solution%20Development.JPGhttps://www.dropbox.com/s/bhk6q0zjv0qya8o/Report%20Out%20and%20Presentation.mp4

    Flavil Scenario

    Team 3 - "Flavil"

    Trends:https://www.dropbox.com/s/h10vtbdwhvveu3a/Trends.JPG

    Scenario and Storytelling:https://www.dropbox.com/s/ywopheva23exedj/Scenario%20and%20Storytelling.JPG

    Problem Finding and Solution Development:https://www.dropbox.com/s/0jqoxnrho5py9ke/Problem%20Finding%20and%20Solution%20Development.JPG

    Video:https://www.dropbox.com/s/8dozvauq968atd4/Report%20Out%20and%20Presentation.mp4

    https://www.dropbox.com/s/h10vtbdwhvveu3a/Trends.JPGhttps://www.dropbox.com/s/ywopheva23exedj/Scenario%20and%20Storytelling.JPGhttps://www.dropbox.com/s/0jqoxnrho5py9ke/Problem%20Finding%20and%20Solution%20Development.JPGhttps://www.dropbox.com/s/8dozvauq968atd4/Report%20Out%20and%20Presentation.mp4

    My Pain On the Go Scenario

    Team 4 - "My Pain Solution On-the-go"

    Trends:https://www.dropbox.com/s/solsc40abt7nzwj/Trends%2C%20Scenario%20and%20Storytelling.JPG

    Scenario and Storytelling:https://www.dropbox.com/s/solsc40abt7nzwj/Trends%2C%20Scenario%20and%20Storytelling.JPG

    Problem Finding and Solution Development:https://www.dropbox.com/s/47209qgr69k0o13/Problem%20Finding%20and%20Solution%20Development.JPG

    Video:https://www.dropbox.com/s/eynllk7thus0s00/Report%20Out%20and%20Presentation.mp4

    https://www.dropbox.com/s/solsc40abt7nzwj/Trends%2C%20Scenario%20and%20Storytelling.JPGhttps://www.dropbox.com/s/solsc40abt7nzwj/Trends%2C%20Scenario%20and%20Storytelling.JPGhttps://www.dropbox.com/s/47209qgr69k0o13/Problem%20Finding%20and%20Solution%20Development.JPGhttps://www.dropbox.com/s/eynllk7thus0s00/Report%20Out%20and%20Presentation.mp4

    Smart & Savvy Spending Scenario

    Team 5 - "$mart & $avvy $pending"

    Trends:https://www.dropbox.com/s/69n00siofpdk6kb/Trends%2C%20Scenario%20and%20Storytelling.JPG

    Scenario and Storytelling:https://www.dropbox.com/s/69n00siofpdk6kb/Trends%2C%20Scenario%20and%20Storytelling.JPG

    Problem Finding and Solution Development:https://www.dropbox.com/s/1h7rbhmtidkyhnp/Problem%20Finding%20and%20Solution%20Development.JPG

    Video:https://www.dropbox.com/s/jrvfqi2dgr3r17j/Report%20Out%20and%20Presentation.mp4

    https://www.dropbox.com/s/69n00siofpdk6kb/Trends%2C%20Scenario%20and%20Storytelling.JPGhttps://www.dropbox.com/s/69n00siofpdk6kb/Trends%2C%20Scenario%20and%20Storytelling.JPGhttps://www.dropbox.com/s/1h7rbhmtidkyhnp/Problem%20Finding%20and%20Solution%20Development.JPGhttps://www.dropbox.com/s/jrvfqi2dgr3r17j/Report%20Out%20and%20Presentation.mp4

    Dropbox Files and Videos

    Team 1 - "Ped Med Express"

    Trends:https://www.dropbox.com/s/99argj0zm0yutx0/Trends%2C%20Scenario%20and%20Storytelling.JPG

    Scenario and Storytelling:https://www.dropbox.com/s/99argj0zm0yutx0/Trends%2C%20Scenario%20and%20Storytelling.JPG

    Problem Finding and Solution Development:https://www.dropbox.com/s/3ozthnhzrym5bqy/Problem%20Finding%20and%20Solution%20Development.JPG

    Video:https://www.dropbox.com/s/6chqm04omlf8d4z/Report%20Out%20and%20Presentation.mp4

    Team 2 - "Iron Lady"

    Trends:https://www.dropbox.com/s/t6vou7v3xti62ts/Trends.JPG

    Scenario and Storytelling:https://www.dropbox.com/s/n2iuj4n6ayz14dm/Scenario%20and%20Storytelling.JPG

    Problem Finding and Solution Development:https://www.dropbox.com/s/a1t7tvmcnqhkhea/Problem%20Finding%20and%20Solution%20Development.JPG

    Video:https://www.dropbox.com/s/bhk6q0zjv0qya8o/Report%20Out%20and%20Presentation.mp4

    Team 3 - "Flavil"

    Trends:https://www.dropbox.com/s/h10vtbdwhvveu3a/Trends.JPG

    Scenario and Storytelling:https://www.dropbox.com/s/ywopheva23exedj/Scenario%20and%20Storytelling.JPG

    Problem Finding and Solution Development:https://www.dropbox.com/s/0jqoxnrho5py9ke/Problem%20Finding%20and%20Solution%20Development.JPG

    Video:https://www.dropbox.com/s/8dozvauq968atd4/Report%20Out%20and%20Presentation.mp4

    Team 4 - "My Pain Solution On-the-go"

    Trends:https://www.dropbox.com/s/solsc40abt7nzwj/Trends%2C%20Scenario%20and%20Storytelling.JPG

    Scenario and Storytelling:https://www.dropbox.com/s/solsc40abt7nzwj/Trends%2C%20Scenario%20and%20Storytelling.JPG

    Problem Finding and Solution Development:https://www.dropbox.com/s/47209qgr69k0o13/Problem%20Finding%20and%20Solution%20Development.JPG

    Video:https://www.dropbox.com/s/eynllk7thus0s00/Report%20Out%20and%20Presentation.mp4

    Team 5 - "$mart & $avvy $pending"

    Trends:https://www.dropbox.com/s/69n00siofpdk6kb/Trends%2C%20Scenario%20and%20Storytelling.JPG

    Scenario and Storytelling:https://www.dropbox.com/s/69n00siofpdk6kb/Trends%2C%20Scenario%20and%20Storytelling.JPG

    Problem Finding and Solution Development:https://www.dropbox.com/s/1h7rbhmtidkyhnp/Problem%20Finding%20and%20Solution%20Development.JPG

    Video:https://www.dropbox.com/s/jrvfqi2dgr3r17j/Report%20Out%20and%20Presentation.mp4

    https://www.dropbox.com/s/99argj0zm0yutx0/Trends%2C%20Scenario%20and%20Storytelling.JPGhttps://www.dropbox.com/s/ywopheva23exedj/Scenario%20and%20Storytelling.JPGhttps://www.dropbox.com/s/0jqoxnrho5py9ke/Problem%20Finding%20and%20Solution%20Development.JPGhttps://www.dropbox.com/s/8dozvauq968atd4/Report%20Out%20and%20Presentation.mp4https://www.dropbox.com/s/solsc40abt7nzwj/Trends%2C%20Scenario%20and%20Storytelling.JPGhttps://www.dropbox.com/s/solsc40abt7nzwj/Trends%2C%20Scenario%20and%20Storytelling.JPGhttps://www.dropbox.com/s/47209qgr69k0o13/Problem%20Finding%20and%20Solution%20Development.JPGhttps://www.dropbox.com/s/eynllk7thus0s00/Report%20Out%20and%20Presentation.mp4https://www.dropbox.com/s/69n00siofpdk6kb/Trends%2C%20Scenario%20and%20Storytelling.JPGhttps://www.dropbox.com/s/69n00siofpdk6kb/Trends%2C%20Scenario%20and%20Storytelling.JPGhttps://www.dropbox.com/s/1h7rbhmtidkyhnp/Problem%20Finding%20and%20Solution%20Development.JPGhttps://www.dropbox.com/s/99argj0zm0yutx0/Trends%2C%20Scenario%20and%20Storytelling.JPGhttps://www.dropbox.com/s/jrvfqi2dgr3r17j/Report%20Out%20and%20Presentation.mp4https://www.dropbox.com/s/3ozthnhzrym5bqy/Problem%20Finding%20and%20Solution%20Development.JPGhttps://www.dropbox.com/s/6chqm04omlf8d4z/Report%20Out%20and%20Presentation.mp4https://www.dropbox.com/s/t6vou7v3xti62ts/Trends.JPGhttps://www.dropbox.com/s/n2iuj4n6ayz14dm/Scenario%20and%20Storytelling.JPGhttps://www.dropbox.com/s/a1t7tvmcnqhkhea/Problem%20Finding%20and%20Solution%20Development.JPGhttps://www.dropbox.com/s/bhk6q0zjv0qya8o/Report%20Out%20and%20Presentation.mp4https://www.dropbox.com/s/h10vtbdwhvveu3a/Trends.JPG

  • Identifying new business models

    Feeding the Strategic Planning Process

    "The Next Gen Auto" Business Model EvaluationExternal Ecosystem Partners Channels (HW and SW)

    Internal Ecosystem Partners Channels (Services)

    Value Proposition Customer Segments

    Cost Structure Revenue Streams

    LessStress

    Voice recognition f or key serv ices (y elp,

    phone, maps)

    Seemless sharing of

    music,photos, data

    Indiv idualCustomization

    Access to personal

    music, v ideo,

    Sav eTime

    Improv ed saf ety:can see/sense

    Cool Factor

    Makes driv ing more

    Allows driv er to beproductiv e while

    driv ing w/o compromising

    Helpssustain resale

    v alue of car

    Priv ate data manager (driv ing stats)

    Trav el route

    planning

    Internaldev eloped HW & SW

    OEM Dealer

    Platf orm(2-sided)

    connecting data f rom

    automobile to serv ice

    prov iders

    Serv ice Prov ider

    End User

    Serv ice prov iders pay f or

    data

    Support and Maintenance contract with

    OEM

    OEM pay s f or Si/SW

    and Integration

    3rd partyHW

    Vendors

    3rd party SW Vendors Gv t

    Serv ice Prov iders

    ODMs and Mf g Supply

    Radio Suppliers

    Stds & Certs/Regs

    ContentProv iders

    SW Suppliers (Hi v alue add)

    Security Company

    Media Serv ices

    Data Analy tics

    Radio Suppliers

    Internal Group 1

    IntGroup

    2

    Int Group

    3

    Int Group

    4

    Int Group

    5

    Int Group

    6

    IntGroup

    7

    July '11 Env Assessment

    ASD Environmental Assessment Map - July 2011 (Intel Confidential - Internal Use Only)

    201320142015201620172018201920202020+

    End Users - Drivers

    End Users - Passengers

    Emerging Markets

    Government

    Services and Applications

    Technology

    Competition

    Value Chain / Ecosystem

    Relatively Certain: Yellow Uncertain: Green

    Green

    Yellow

    End users can manage thire home energy, networking/gateway from their car

    Start safe IM, Texting, Tweeting

    Location based targeted advertising delivered to devices based on location

    Gvt limits text/multimedia UI for driver

    Drivers require voice recognition (C + C)

    User profiles/data are stored in the cloud

    Entertainment profiles/data are stored in the cloud

    US and EU unable to agree on connected car secuirity and privacy regs. Go sepeate ways in developing stds

    Better UI (contextual recog, gesture, face reg) for automotives

    Connected car is mobile device connecting hub -must serve as a connectivity dock

    Drivers want same experience/access to apps and content on all devices

    Face recognition basis for personalized car experience

    Passenger profiles for favorite songs, apps, etc

    Tablet adoption takes off in emerging markets

    US DOT mandates DSRC radios

    Superior input device for drivers emerges

    Voice and gesture become dominant command inputs for broad array of driver functions

    I create my own apps and services (highly personal and custom)

    Majority of consumers store/access a significant portion of personal date files in the cloud

    My digital life is in the cloud (any device/anywhere access)

    China will develop own IVI Si

    Gvt requires increased % recycleability

    Consumers refuse/resist stand-alone subscriptions for services

    Car timesharing (vs single ownership) becomes wide spread in emerging markets

    Driverless becomes major mode of transportation

    China establishes 20% market share in US and EMEA

    Smart cities take off - requires fewer cars

    DOTs establish high speed lanes for autonomous driving - cars only

    Cars drive themselves

    Device physical forms completely disappear & human machine interactions change radically

    Form factor (interface and portability dominate user experience

    Domestic Chinese OEM passes Toyota in WW production

    Servive providers want to monetize assets: NW infrastructure, cust relations, info

    Remote diagnostics services for high end cars

    60+% mobile NW traffic is video - HD and interactive

    Cars can self clean - also have a fridge and garbage disposer

    First law passes requiring voice control for IVI

    Gvt requires ADAS

    Gvt mandates our use of electric/environmental safe cars

    Connectivity becomes ubiquitous

    Integrated and synchronized apps are common

    Intel sells software and services decoupled from HW that can be used on any HW architecture

    ECU consolidation factor of 10

    Internet access option for all mid/high cars

    Connected games for passengers

    Media can be shared, downloaded from home cloud or server cloud

    Adaptive heads up display goes mainstream

    Autopilot features in over 25% of cars

    Car to car and car to infrastructure communication for safety emerges

    Remote diagnostics pervasive

    End users can manage, connect to and share all their data (music/files) from their car

    China, Brazil and India become large emerging markets demanding high-end systems in their cars

    China total fleet hits 100 million

    Modular construction of behicles (TATA) provides 'plug-in' opportunity

    Gvt makes handheld device use in cars illegal

    EU mandates e-call

    Gvts all over the world discourage car ownership

    Internet in car starts

    Pay as you drive insurance becomes mainstream in US

    Appls need to be introduced and scaled faster

    RSS feeds for car

    Increasing distracted driver accidents along w/ineffective enforcement means increased regulatory pressure on suplly chain to enact controls and automated detection for device usage infractions

    Natural language processing becomes integral to the car experience

    Gvts WW require controlled/limited mobile device operation in vehicles due to fatalities

    Car's IVI bexomes master & Commander of mobile devices in car

    Pervasive remote access/control to car

    Use-based revenue generater favored by govt

    Driver profile to customize display and controls

    Semi-autonomous driving cars in production

    Affordable personal transport for EM countries leads to further productivity growth and shifts from urban centers

    Service will be >50% of ecosystem, Si

  • The Strategic Roadmapping Life Cycle

    Webinar #3Nov 12th

  • Lessons learned Storytelling gets better when you force the team to tell the

    story from the point of view of the end user and/or customer

    Team continuity & video taping the report outs Challenge of new businesses models

    Business model canvas to envision ecosystem and to drive operational plans

  • Questions

  • Irene J. Petrick, managing director of TrendScape Innovation Group and former Penn State University professor, is an internationally recognized expert in strategic roadmapping. She is actively engaged with companies in their innovation and technology strategy activities, including work with 12 Fortune 100 companies, the U.S. military, and a wide variety of small- to medium-sized enterprises. She has over 25 years of experience in technology planning, management, and product development in both academic and industrial settings. Irene is author or co-author on more than 150 publications and presentations. [email protected]

    Russ Martinelli, managing director of TrendScape Innovation Group is engaged with companies in the areas of business strategy development, business model evaluation, ecosystem development, and technology roadmapping. He has over 20 years of experience in strategy development; portfolio management; new product development program management; and engineering in the high-tech, aerospace and defense, medical, and non-profit industries. Russ is the co-author of multiple books including Program Management for Improved Business Results, and Leading Global Project Teams, and over 60 articles and publications. [email protected]

    mailto:[email protected]

    The Power of Problem Finding and StorytellingReviewing the Strategic Roadmapping Life CycleSlide Number 3Slide Number 4Many trends some more important than othersSlide Number 6Slide Number 7Slide Number 8Slide Number 9Slide Number 10Slide Number 11Slide Number 12Slide Number 13Slide Number 14Slide Number 15Slide Number 16The Strategic Roadmapping Life CycleSlide Number 18Slide Number 19The Strategic Roadmapping Life CycleLessons learnedSlide Number 22Slide Number 23