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Slides from workshop conduced 16th and 17th of september 2009
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TECHNOLOGYTECHNOLOGY ROADMAPPING
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Pericles
Agenda - Introduction to technology roadmapping (TRM)
The motivation for roadmapping and roadmaps – the ”Why?” Case Story: Gatehouse and roadmapping the SDR markets and
technologies The roadmapping process – the ”How?” Fast track roadmap – the ”What’s next?”
The road is not the map!!
I the late 15.th century the cartographs Gerard Mercator and Abraham Ortelius made a number of maps witha number of maps with California – correctly –depicted as a peninsula.
In 1602, Sebastian Vizcaino sailed up the California coastsailed up the California coast, and Father Antonio de la Ascension wrote a journal of the voyage. Claiming that California was separatedCalifornia was separated from the American continent by the “Mediterranean Sea of California.”
For more than 100 years For more than 100 years California was depicted on maps as an island even long after Father Kino established its penisularity about 1705its penisularity about 1705
Finally in 1747, Ferdinand VII of Spain issued a royal edict declaring California as part of the mainland
Kort af Francisco de Ulloa der besejlede bugten udfor Californien i 1539
the mainland
Ask yourself: How precise are your maps?
GPS metaphor
Retrospective
Prospective
A roadmap is a forward directed and qualified tool for supporting decision making – like a GPS for a driver
More than one route are found as the context and preconditions change A roadmap could be the best qualified estimate on a safe or quick route to your A roadmap could be the best qualified estimate on a safe or quick route to your
destination
Ask yourself: Where are you looking for directions and guidance? Are these sources trustworthy?
“Roadmapping” is the process that pp g pproduces a number of interrelated roadmaps which can be used in the ongoing making and communication of decisions on technology, business and strategy…
The occasion…
The current crisis calls for more secure choices - saying “no” to the right things at the right time...
The choice of technologies are no- The choice of technologies are nomore a metier for experts alone –it’s coordinated with business and organizational matters...
A huge democratization of A huge democratization of “Technology roadmapping” is going on – moving from an expert driven innovation to a more open employee driven model of innovation...
Getting business value from our innovation processes – superior p pknowledge and excellent skills are only half way there...
Complicated matter in knowledge intensive organizationsintensive organizations
Conclusions – just to map out where we are goingConclusions just to map out where we are going…. Technology Roadmapping (TRM) is a mature process and
supported by numerous tools and methods
TRM can give you tremendous insight AND outlook – both don’t go for both at the same time
Roadmapping is a continuous process the roadmaps are the Roadmapping is a continuous process – the roadmaps are the outcome or artifacts from this process
The roadmaps are hypothesis on the future markets, their d d t h l ti d ibilitidemands, technology options and possibilities – you can use them to reduce risk and combine them with scenarios to give these hypothesis dynamics and “life”
Use it to identify strategies and necessary activities
Roadmaps are superb tools for internal and external communicationcommunication
Roadmaps gives you a tool to time your efforts
A roadmap can create a consensus which are crucial if we are to A roadmap can create a consensus which are crucial if we are to move forward together as a group or organization
You can do it – in fact you are already doing it….
Another roadmap most of us know…
From Wikipedia
Source: Statusrapport 2005 EPJ-Observatoriet
NOWHERENOWHERETime Perspective
A view can never be from nowhere. It will always be from a now and a here
The anagram on “nowhere” / "now, here" / “Erewhon” with reference to Samuel Butler (1835-1902) and Gilles Deleuze (1925-1995)
Introduction to technology roadmapping (TRM)
The beginning:[place]: Motorola[time]: Late 70’s Technology Roadmapping – the process of producing roadmaps – where introduced
in Motorola in the late 70’s
Through the 80’s the roadmapping process are integrated tightly as one of Motorola's g pp g p g g ymost important control- and communication tools – both internally but just as much externally in relation to suppliers and markets/costumers
Motorola formulated the goals with their roadmaps:g p1. Establish a cooperation tool which both development dept. and marketing
could use2. Be able to more qualified assumptions on future developments in technologies
or markets3. Be able to coordinate across a large and diverse organization and increase
consistency4. Identify ”gaps” – holes in the collective knowledge / product series / markets –
more rapidly and more effectivelyp y y5. To time and synchronize efforts towards new technologies and new markets
”A Roadmap is an extended look at the future of a chosen field of inquiry composed from the
Ask yourself: How well does these goals from Motorola fit your own?
collective knowledge and imagination of the brightest drivers of change in that field”, Brian Galvin CEO Motorola
Creativity
Sciencefiction
Strategy, business development, technology assesment
Brainstorming
Essays /Gaming
technology assesment, market segmentationand validation….
Scenariowriting
Essays / foresights Trend
analysis
Technologicalwriting TechnologicalSubstitution
modelBackcasting
StakeholderBibliometric
DelphiImpact
matrix / SWOTWorkshops
Technologyassessment
mappinganalysis
Panels / advisory boards
Conferences
WorkshopsGAP
analysis
Expertise Interactionalignment
”A Roadmap for the Robotic and Human Exploration of Mars”, NASA 2004
A roadmap we may know…
http://www.isip.nhs.uk/roadmap/
SDR Hype Cycle
MM3xR
SCA ver 2.2Remaining technology limitations
PUSHING
JTRS Launch
limitations- AD/DA conversion-Power consumption- Linear amplification
PUSHING TECHNOLOGY
ENVELOPE
SIB
ILIT
Y
JTRS
- Broadband antennas- SW reload time
VIS
SpeakEasy Re-organisation andRe-targeting
Coalition waveform
implementation
DSPs, FPGAs
Euro-SDR Proto ?p
TechnologyTrigger
Peak of InflatedExpectations
Through ofDissillusionment
Slope ofEnlightenment
Plateau ofProductivity
Early 1990’s 2000 2005 2010 2015
MATURITY
gg p g y
SDR Emerging Technology Roadmap
Reference : Dr. Klaus Moessner, CCSR, University of Surrey, UK
Ask yourself: How many roadmaps do you use or produce daily?
Case: Gatehouse
Technology Roadmapping of Software Defined Radio (SDR)
About GatehouseAbout Gatehouse Software that connects GateHouse was founded in 1992 by the current
CEO Michael Bondo Andersen During the last
Based on extensive experience within satellite communications GateHouse has developed an Inmarsat BGAN Waveform for SDRCEO, Michael Bondo Andersen. During the last
decade GateHouse has risen to become a well-know international player in the software development market for communication systems Contributory to this success are the
Inmarsat BGAN Waveform for SDR• The waveform is SCA compliant and has all the
advantages from the BGAN system:• Global coverage• High data rate transfer (up to 492 kbit/s)• L-Bandsystems. Contributory to this success are the
BGAN Protocol Stack, the Automatic Identification System (AIS) and the numerous consultancy service contracts for the Danish Army
• For land, maritime and aeronautical use
Army. Now GateHouse employs about 80 highly
skilled M.Sc. in engineering, business developers, sales and marketing specialists. Their geniuses are deployed in the solutions weTheir geniuses are deployed in the solutions we make for our customers translating their requirements into "software that connects".
Today GateHouse operates within 5 business areas sharing the same dedication to suplyareas sharing the same dedication to suplymission critical solutions characterised by reliability and interoperability.
The business areas are:Satellite CommunicationsTracking, monitoring and control (TrMC)Coastal SurveillanceDefenceSoftware Defined Radio (SDR)
The purpose of Technology Roadmapping at Gatehouse
Artefacts
Scope lse af SDR teknolo
Artefacts
Roadmap for dardisation_v13052
mindmap Markeder roadmap ålgrupper iteration
The value of TRM in the Gatehouse caseThe value of TRM in the Gatehouse case
T h l di A l f h i I t l i ti f• Technology readiness within 2-3 years
• Standardization important and imminent
• A lot of research going on
• Standardization is not –definitely – not a driver
• Internal communication of SDR as an emerging technology and consolidation of strategic direction
• A lot of new skills required internally
• No mainstream near-market implementa-tions ready
• Different US and
• Prioritization of 2 market segments
• Identification of a number of “critical levels” for SDR roll-
tDifferent US and European approach
• SDR sets software development skills of most importance and is
out• Identification and mapping
of research clusters to follow
• Validation of software asmost importance and is a key parameter in the competitive market space
• Validation of software as key competence and hereof a dramatic change in the competitive landscape
AssumptionsBefore
KnowledgeNow
Valueoptained
Organizing and managing the roadmapping process
Cybernetics – the organization seen as a body or organism
[SENSE]Size of organization?Is there a 6th sense? [S S ]
Acquisition and processing of information
Is there a 6 sense?
[INTERPRETATION][REACT]Develop common
understanding through shared
beliefs
[REACT]
Strategic adaption and specific tactical
actions beliefs
The ability to share knowledge is key!
Absorptive capacity
As suggested by professor Harry Boer from CIP (AAU), Denmark
The TRM framework
Adapted from: ”Fast-Start Technology Roadmapping” Phaal, Farrukh & Probert, 2008Ask yourself: Can you point out where to seek the 5 information types in your organization?
A roadmap as a strategic lens on the world
Ask yourself: What “lenses” provides you with outlook or perspectives on the surrounding world? Are they aligned? Are they shared?
What can Roadmaps do for you?
Give one – or more likely: more – well supported hypothesis on the future markets, their demands, options and possibilities – hereby reducing risk
Identify the “hard” and “soft” facts necessary to capture future benefits and Identify the hard and soft facts necessary to capture future benefits and possibilities
Identify strategies and activities from where companies and industries can get access to new sources of knowledge eg strategic partnerships commonaccess to new sources of knowledge – eg. strategic partnerships, common R&D areas
Roadmaps are superb tools in the internal and external communication: they invite to dialog and a roadmap is always stronger if it is challenged
Roadmaps gives you a tool to time your efforts: don’t invest in new technologies if the roadmap for a targeted market doesn’t say that adoption g p g y phere is ready
A roadmap can create a alignment of knowledge which are crucial if we are to move forward after a common layout / architecture / business plan etcmove forward after a common layout / architecture / business plan etc.
Ask yourself: What would you like roadmapping to provide you? Where would it provide you with the most value?
“How” - The Roadmapping Process
Roadmapping is a learning process
Identified risk
edic
tion
urity
of p
r
”Wild guesses” with no or poor documentation
Informed estimates Reliable estimates
Inse
cu documentation
Identified risk
TimeIncreasing leaning valueIncreasing leaning value
Identified risk
Increasing leaning valueIncreasing leaning value
Ask yourself: How do you identify and eliminate risks?
5 main topics in roadmapping
Experience• Prior experience
and knowledge in the area must be
t d
Facts!• Not all knowledge
or opinions are based on facts
Creativity• It’s about shaping
a qualified scenario of the f t i
Interaction• It’s a coope-
ration between multiple
Documentation• To communicate
it must be visualized
present and represented
• This may challenge the documentation
based on facts but if they are: find it!
• If not: find the people able to
ti l t it
future in some local areas
• It demands that we engage in thinking out-of-
pindividuals and groups –perhaps even other
i ti
• To support the collaboration of stakeholders
documentation and our organization
articulate it thinking out ofthe-box organizations
• This may challenge our culture
Ask yourself: Who or what would you use in your organization to cover each topic?
Gatehouse case revisited: activities and structure
Adopted from: “T-Plan: the fast start to Technology RoadmappingPlanning your route to success”
The roadmapping process seen iterative
The process begins with a very broad scope
Narrowing in short iterations Early iterations are short Early iterations are short
(hours/days) Later Iterations are longer
(weeks) and perhaps even in parallelparallel
Figure adopted from Phaal & Müller: ”An architectural framework for roadmapping” 2008
Ask yourself: How good are you to run and facilitate processes?
Outlined roadmap process per iterationOutlined roadmap process per iteration
As proposed in Phaal & Müller: ”An architectural framework for roadmapping” 2008
Ask yourself: Where would you think your process would be the most productive – ideation, divergence, convergence, synthesis?
The TRM framework
Adapted from ”Technological Forecasting & Social Change” Phaal & Muller 2007Ask yourself: Which Push / Pull-effects are the strongest in your context?
The TRM framework
The Scenarios – the stories – the multiple instantiations of the roadmap The important disruptive elements
Ask yourself: In your case - which scenario would be the most powerful or effective as a communication vehicle?
Learning points for the process:
Appoint a facilitator among the group
Make a preliminary roadmap for the first workshop
Agree on the time span for the roadmap• Keep the alignment of the time span for
as long as you can
workshop• Give the group a starting point – even
though you know it’s inaccurate and with errors
• Use 3 party roadmaps (ask Mr Google
Agree on the time span for the roadmapping process
• For each iteration• For the whole process until first delivery• Use 3. party roadmaps (ask Mr. Google
but not as only source)
Control your abstractionsSeek a limited number of abstraction
For the whole process until first delivery (fx a report to a project review or kick-off)
Classify and group input in themes all the time• Seek a limited number of abstraction
levels• Keep them well-balanced: don’t over-
expose the bottom ones just because you can
time• Again: control the abstractions
Seek and qualify with “Facts and Figures”E th h th t di t h thyou can…
• Keep it simple – very simple – in the first 2 iterations
• Keep the abstraction levels in alignment for the first 2 iterations
• Even though they contradict each other• Name your sources
Maintain and keep the roadmap up-to-for the first 2 iterations date
Ask yourself: The last time you facilitated a process - how did you do that? Are there any learning points from that you need to take into consideration?
People | Organization
Critical factors for a successful TRMPeople | Organization
The right team over time
The right team over time
Processes
The right mix of competencies
The right mix of competencies
Mature organization
Mature organization
Sources for data
organizationorganization
Sources for dataand information
Maintain momentum
Maintain momentum
Valid sources
Valid sources
The right data
The right data
Maintaining the right level of abstraction
Maintaining the right level of abstraction
Managenble processes for initiating, developing, reviewing and integrating
the TRM
Managenble processes for initiating, developing, reviewing and integrating
the TRM
datadata
Enough -but not to much...
Enough -but not to much... the TRMthe TRMmuch...much...
Conclusions – revisitedConclusions revisited Technology Roadmapping (TRM) is a mature process and
supported by numerous tools and methods
TRM can give you tremendous insight AND outlook – both don’t go for both at the same time
Roadmapping is a continuous process the roadmaps are the Roadmapping is a continuous process – the roadmaps are the outcome or artifacts from this process
The roadmaps are hypothesis on the future markets, their d d t h l ti d ibilitidemands, technology options and possibilities – you can use them to reduce risk and combine them with scenarios to give these hypothesis dynamics and “life”
Use it to identify strategies and necessary activities
Roadmaps are superb tools for internal and external communicationcommunication
Roadmaps gives you a tool to time your efforts
A roadmap can create a consensus which are crucial if we are to A roadmap can create a consensus which are crucial if we are to move forward together as a group or organization
You can do it – in fact you are already doing it….
What´s next?
A suggested next step: fast track roadmapping
What do tyou put
here?
Fast track roadmappingFast track roadmapping
1. Sell the concept of TRM roadmapping• Get the key stakeholders identified and involvedGet the key stakeholders identified and involved• Set the overall scope for the TRM process
2. Initiating the TRM process – how to get started?S t th TRM t
Preliminary activities
• Set the TRM process core-team• Identify supporting resource-members
3. Define scope of the TRM process and roadmapp p p• Identify largest technology areas• Identify technology alternatives• Develop roadmaps
D l t ti iti4. Integrate or adopt TRM into existing processes
• Align / adopt to whatever development or analysis process in-house
Development activities
y p• Make TRM communication package• Use resource-members as ambassadors
5 Maintain the TRM process on an everyday basis5. Maintain the TRM-process on an everyday basis• Review and validate• Find external review partners (costumers,
suppliers, etc.)
Follow-up / review activities
A f t t k TRM ith f t f kA-fast-track TRM process – with reference to framework
Ask yourself: Won’t that guy ever stop??? Adapted from: ”Fast-Start Technology Roadmapping” Phaal, Farrukh & Probert, 2008
Perspectives on Roadmapping
Roadmapping as a platform for Open Innovation?
Common activities
Company specific activities
Thank you…
Bent Bilstrup | 72201614 | [email protected]
Further reading
“An architectural framework for roadmapping: Towards visual strategy”, Robert Phaal, GerritMuller (Technological Forecasting & Social Change (2008)g ( )
”Establish a creative environment for roadmapping of i-system methodology”, Tieju MA, Andrzej P. WIERZBICKI, Yoshiteru NAKAMORI
”Evolution of roadmapping at Motorola”, Richey, pp g , y,James M., Grinnel, Mary (Research | TechnologyManagement, march-april 2004)
“Fast-Start Technology Roadmapping”, R Phaal, CJP Farrukh and DR Probert
“Fundamentals of Technology Roadmapping” Marie L. Garcia & Olin H. Bray