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Wherefore livestock? Does animal agriculture have a role in future
food systems?Jimmy Smith, Director General,
International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI), KenyaFood Tank Webinar
19 October 2016
Key messages
• Globally, demand for animal source foods is rising rapidly; livestock commodities have the highest production value; animal production has significant environmental and human health impacts
• ‘Unpacking’ global information reveals many opportunities for animal agriculture to contribute to:
• Inclusive, sustainable economic growth • Equitable livelihoods• Nutritious and healthy diets• Sustainable ecosystems
Animal source foods: 5 of 6 highest value global commodities (total value of these 5=US Int $715 billion)
FAOSTAT 2015(values for 2013)
Cow milk
Rice, paddy
Indig. Pig meat
Indig. Cattle meat
Indig. Chicken meat
farmed food fishwheat
soybeansmaize
sugar cane
tomatoes0
50
100
150
200
250
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
net production value (Int $) billion production (MT)
Net
pro
ducti
on v
alue
(Int
$) b
illio
n
Prod
uctio
n (M
T) m
illio
ns
Cow milk has overtaken rice
Global value
Huge increases over 2005/7 amountsof cereals, dairy and meat will be needed by 2050
From 2bn−3bntonnes cereals each year
From 664m−1bntonnes dairy each year
From 258m−460m tonnes meat each year
Global
demand
Animal agriculture and the environment
14.5% anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions
70% of total freshwater use is for agriculture, of which 31% is for livestock
30% global terrestrial biomes – livestock raising 33% all croplands – livestock feed
Global
environment
Global antimicrobial consumption will rise by
67% by 2030
Animal agriculture: food safety, AMR and diet
UK
Netherlands
India
Vietnam
USA
China
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Animal source foodProduceOther
Animal sources foods
cause food borne
diseases
Global health
and nutrition
UnpackingDemand and supply
Gains in meat consumption in developingcountries are outpacing those of developed
1980 1990 2002 2015 2030 20500
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
developingdeveloped
Mill
ion
met
ric to
nnes
E.Asia Pacific
China
South Asia
SSA
High income
0
50
100
150
200
250
% growth in demand for livestock products to 20302000 - 2030
9
E.Asia Pacific
China
South Asia
SSA
High income
0
50
100
150
200
250
E.Asia Pacific
China
South Asia
SSA
High income
050
100150200250300350400
E.Asia Pacific
China
South Asia
SSA
High income
0
50
100
150
200
250
Figure 1. Estimates of the % growth in demand for animal source foods in different World regions, comparing 2005 and 2030. Estimates were developed using the IMPACT model, courtesy Dolapo Enahoro, ILRI.
Beef Pork
Poultry Milk
BMGF, FAO, ILRI
Smallholders still dominatelivestock production in many countries
Region (definition of ‘smallholder’)
% production by smallholder livestock farms
Beef Chicken meat
Sheep/goat meat
Milk Pork Eggs
East Africa(≤ 6 milking animals)
60-90
Bangladesh (< 3ha land)
65 77 78 65 77
India(< 2ha land)
75 92 92 69 71
Vietnam (small scale)
80
Philippines (backyard)
50 35
Livestock and livelihoods
• Almost a billion people rely on livestock for livelihoods
• Over 100 million landless people keep livestock.
• For the vulnerable, up to 40% of benefits from livestock keeping come from non-market, intangible benefits, mostly insurance and financing.
• In the poorest countries, livestock manure comprises over 70% of soil fertility amendments.
• Many employed in local informal livestock product markets
• 90% of animal products are produced and consumed in the same country or region
• Over 70% of livestock products are sold ‘informally’
Smallholders: part of the development
Not sentimentality or a belief in “small is beautiful”Based on the evidence and the dual objectives of
increasing animal source food supply to consumers supporting rural development and livelihoods
The evidence: They produce the bulk of the livestock (and half of crop) products in
developing countries so need to be part of increase supply strategy They continue to be competitive so wont go away on their own Does not detract from investing in larger commercial systems
UnpackingValue
Economic growth
A valuable market: examples
• Livestock: 40% GDP and growing• Market value of animal source foods
in Africa in 2050 estimated as US $ 151 billion
• Globally disease reduces livestock productivity by 25% - valued at US $300 billion per year
• Annual global investment of US $ 25 billion in one health approaches could save as much as US $100 billion annually
Herrero et al. 2014
Demand for livestock commodities in developing economies will be met – the question is how
Scenario #1Meeting livestock demand byimporting livestock products
Scenario #2Meeting livestock demand by
importing livestock industrial production know-how
Scenario #3Meeting livestock demand by
transforming smallholder livestock systems
Demand for milk imports – growing fastest in SSA
2010 2020 2030 2040 20500
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
S.Asia SE. Asia SSA S.America High income
USD million
Employment – for all - matters
Africa N America Europe
1 044
344
735
208 48 94
2010
Africa N America Europe
2 478
433 707
452
52 72
Total PopulationYouth
2050
Regional projections to 2050, of total and youth (15 to 24) populations in millions
Global ramifications
18
Africa: refugees, 2014
Internally displaced people = 9.9 million
Refugees originating from Africa = 4.6 million
Sub-Saharan Africa hosts more than 26 per
cent of the world's refugee population
Africa: unemployment, 2013
Total for the six highest = 11.8 million
(Nigeria, South Africa, Uganda, Morocco,
Algeria, Ghana)
Smallholder mixed crop-livestock keepersare competitive
East African dairy• 1 million Kenyan smallholders keep Africa’s largest dairy
herd• Ugandans are the world’s lowest-cost milk producers• Small- and large-scale Kenyan poultry and dairy producers
have same levels of efficiency and profits
Vietnam pig industry• 95% of production is by producers with less than 100
animals • Pig producers with 1-2 sows have lower unit costs
than those with more than 4 sows• Industrial pig production could grow to meet
no more than 12% of national supply in the next 10 years • Smallholders will continue to provide most of the porkIFCN, Omiti et al. 2004, ILRI 2012
UnpackingLivestock and the environment
Global greenhouse gas efficiencyper kilogram of animal protein produced
Large livestock production inefficienciesin the developing world present an opportunity
Herrero et al PNAS
Improving the feeding and breeding of India’s smallholder dairy cattle would save some 120 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent each year
With improved grazing management and enriched pastures, the world’s grasslands could store about 600 MT of C02
equivalent each year.
Supporting dairy NAMAs in Kenya and Tanzania
GHG emissions from African livestock excreta were lower than IPCC tier 1 emission factors and cattle breed makes a difference to emissions
UnpackingLivestock and human health
Nutritional divides among 7 billion people today
chronic hunger
inadequate diets
overweight
obese
balanced dietsChronic disease likely to cost $35 trillion by 2030
11% of GNP lost annually in Africa
and Asia from poor nutrition
Animal source foods: valuable for human nutrition, critical in early lifeMilk, meat and eggs:• 13% of the energy and 28% of the protein consumed globally• For the undernourished consumption of far too little of such foods
presents a major threat to their health and wellbeing. • Animal source foods contain:
• essential macronutrients (high quality protein and some fatty acids) • micro nutrients (notably: calcium, vitamin A, B12, iron, zinc, and riboflavin) • some are lacking in plant based foods; some are naturally more bioavailable in
animal products
• Milk: improves childrens’ growth, preventing stunting• Meat: improves cognitive ability (long term)
• Branding & certification of milk vendors in Kenya & Guwahti, Assam led to improved milk safety.
• It benefited the national economy by $33 million per year in Kenya and $6 million in Assam
• 70% of traders in Assam and 24% in Kenya are currently registered
• 6 milllion consumers in Kenya and 1.5 million in Assam are benefiting from safer milk
Positive solutions for food safety:risk not hazard based; capacity development
Key messages
• Globally, demand for animal source foods is rising rapidly; livestock commodities have the highest production value; animal production has significant environmental and human health impacts
• ‘Unpacking’ global information reveals many opportunities for animal agriculture to contribute to:
• Inclusive, sustainable economic growth • Equitable livelihoods• Nutritious and healthy diets• Sustainable ecosystems
This presentation is licensed for use under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Licence.
better lives through livestock
ilri.orgILRI thanks all donors and organizations who globally supported its work through their contributions
to the CGIAR system