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Meeting the line between Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate change Adaption

The role of Early Warning systems

Christophe Lavaysse

J. Thielen-del Pozo, P. Barbosa, J.

Vogt, P. Salamon, L. Feyen

Our common future under Climate Change 7-10 July 2015, Paris

Weather driven hazards – a global threat

- With rising global temperatures the

frequency and intensity of severe weather

driven events are likely to increase

- Natural hazards are cross-cutting different

disciplines and sectors and disproportionally

affect vulnerable societies

- Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk

Reduction 2015-2030 “enhancing disaster

preparedness for effective response and to

“Build Back Better” in recovery,

rehabilitation and reconstruction”

Our common future under Climate Change 7-10 July 2015, Paris

Global Impact of Weather Driven hazards

3

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

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Flood Drought Temp Ext WildFires

Num

ber

Occurrence (CRED: 1900-2015)

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2

4

6

8

10

12

Flood Drought Temp Ext WildFires

Num

ber

in m

illion

Casualties (CRED: 1900-2015)

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

Flood Drought Temp Ext WildFires

Num

ber

in M

illion

Persons affected (CRED: 1900-2015)

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100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

700000

Flood Drought Temp Ext WildFires

US

Dollar

in M

illion

Total damage (CRED: 1900-2015)

Reducing impacts today and in the future

4

Soft adaptation options

• (effective) emergency management

• Seamless forecasting systems

• Increasing knowledge base on cross-sectoral impacts

• Insurances

• Climate resilient funding (projects, aid, loans, …)

• Appropriate land-use planning

• Drought resistant crops

• Soil moisture conservation practices

• […]

Hard adaptation options

• Structural measures such as building irrigation systems, dykes,

reinforced building and infrastructures, reservoirs, […]

Reducing impacts today and in the future

5

Soft adaptation options

• (effective) emergency management

• Seamless forecasting systems

• Increasing knowledge base on cross-sectoral impacts

• Insurances

• Climate resilient funding (projects, aid, loans, …)

• Appropriate land-use planning

• Drought resistant crops

• Soil moisture conservation practices

• […]

Hard adaptation options

• Structural measures such as building irrigation systems, dykes,

reinforced building and infrastructures, reservoirs, […]

Benefit of seamless early warning (time)

• Weather driven events are difficult to predict. The longer the lead time the larger the uncertainties

• Seamless forecasting chains can help with early preparation and timely decision making

Long-medium HEPS (monthly, seasonal)

Observations

Nowcasting

Frequently updated high resolution NWP

Medium Resolution NWP

Medium-range HEPS (15 days)

Accuracy

Lead

time

Climatology

Fre

qu

en

cy

Seamless forecasting systems can provide decision makers with best information including uncertainty estimates at any time to adapt and prepare for events

• Weather and climate do not know

administrative boundaries1

• Through increasing globalization the

impacts of disasters propagate globally and

across sectors, e.g. energy demand,

interruption of supply chains, food

shortages, transport, epidemics, …

7 25 August 2015

Benefit of seamless early warning (in space)

1Bakker MHN (2009) Water Policy 11 (2009) 269–288

Being aware and informed about major disasters anywhere in the world is important to adapt on the short and the long term

www.supplymanagement.com/news

EU initiatives and systems

Policy framework

• Comprehensive EU policy framework for individual hazards, civil

protection (EU and developing world), Emergency Management

(Copernicus), and Strategy for Adaptation to Climate Change

• EU commitments to International frameworks such as Sendai

Framework and Sustainable Development Goals

Research, development and transfer to operations

• JRC developed pan-European monitoring and early warning systems

for weather driven hazards

• Expertise from EU systems is being adapted to global systems

• Knowledge is transferred within European and global partnerships

8 25 August 2015

9 25 August 2015

Monitoring the current conditions (droughts) (also available for floods)

Seamless EU and global flood forecasting

10

25 August 2015

Europe (operational under COPERNICUS) •Forecasting

• 0-3 days flashflood indicator (1x1 km2) • 1-15 days flood forecast (5x5 km2) • 15-30 days tendency (5x5 km2) • Seasonal (under preparation)

•Risk assessment •EFAS partner network

Flashflood indicator

Dynamic Risk Indicator

EFAS forecast 15 May 2014

Global (research) •Forecasting

• 1-30 days flood forecast (0.1ox0.1o)

• Seasonal (under preparation) •Impact indicator •Global Flood Partnership

Global

11 25 August 2015

Seamless EU and global drought forecasting

12 25 August 2015

Climatology of the extremes events (heat waves)

Inland flood risk and adaptation in EU

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Increased flood risk in the future (UK, France, North Italy)

Adaptation can be highly cost-effective

2000

2050

2020

2080

Avoided Damages

Rojas, R., L. Feyen, and P. Watkiss (2013), Climate change and river floods in the European Union: Socio-economic consequences and the costs and benefits of adaptation, Global Environmental Change, 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2013

Conclusions

• Seamless forecasting systems for weather driven hazards can

provide decision makers with the best information at any given

point in time to adapt to new situations and prepare for crises

• Forecasting systems provide the framework for full adaptation

studies under changing climate scenarios

• Partnerships are essential for development and knowledge

transfer to accelerate adaptation processes in the EU and

globally

• Visit :

http://www.globalfloods.eu/

http://edo.jrc.ec.europa.eu/edov2/

14 25 August 2015

Associated losses …

Direct losses

•Casualties

•Monetary losses

Indirect losses

•Costs of emergency management

•Business and supply-chain interruption (local but with possibility for global

propagation)

•Production losses during event and recovery period

•Investment losses and macro-economic and political feedbacks

•Deterioration of health and communities

… tend to disproportionally affect the poor and with increased

globalization propagate globally

15

16 25 August 2015

Flood and Drought occurrence by continent

17 25 August 2015

• About 40% of all floods are reported in Asia • About 40% of all droughts are reported in Africa

[source: CRED Database (1900-2015)]

Trend evolution over the past decades

18 25 August 2015

• Increasing trend in reported events

• Overall increasing trend in average reported damages

[source: CRED Database (1950-2015)]

19

Ensemble projections of future streamflow droughts in Europe

Scientific question

What can be the future scenarios of

streamflow droughts across Europe in

view of climate change and an

intensification of human water

consumption?

Data

Bias corrected ENSEMBLES (A1B),

SCENES (Economy First), LISFLOOD

Key message

• Streamflow droughts will become

significantly more severe and

persistent in many parts of Europe

due to climate change, except for

northern and northeastern parts of

Europe.

• Future water use will aggravate the

situation by 10-30% in southern

Europe Forzieri G, Feyen L, Rojas R, Flörke M, Wimmer F,

Bianchi A (in review)

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sc.

Adaptation to Climate Change

- Having modelling platform

and data collection in place

allows assessing the socio-

economic consequences,

costs and benefits of

weather risks across

different sectors.

- Projection of Economic

impacts of climate change in

Sectors of the European

Union based on bottom-up

Analysis (PESETA I, II, III)

can be expanded to other

regions

Feyen, L., et al (2012). Fluvial flood risk in Europe in present and future climates. Climatic Change, Climatic Change, 112, Issue 1, pp 47-62. Rojas, R., et al (2013). Climate change and river floods in the European Union: Socio-economic consequences and the costs and benefits of adaptation. Global Environ. Change 23(6):1737–1751