Tanzania Livestock Sector Analysis (LSA) Baseline 2016and Projections to 2031: Livestock Production & Household Economy

Tanzanian Livestock Master Plan, Technical Advisory Committee (TAC) Meeting, Colosseum Hotel, Dar Es Salaam 23 June 2016

Stephen Michael, Francis Makusaro (Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Fisheries Development)& Solomon Desta (ILRI)

NOT FOR CITATION

RESULTSAverage annual net income (TZS)

(per head of traditional cattle)

Average annual net income (TZS) (per head of commercial cattle)

114,000

Distribution of Livestock keeping Households by main livestock activity

Distribution of Livestock keeping HHs by main livestock activity by production zone

Contribution of Livestock income to household Poverty reduction - Central Zone

Livestock Contribution to Employment Generation (C&L zone) at production stage

(# person months/year/household)

Dominant species Total Labour Family Labour External LabourCattle

Small 12 9 3Medium 25 20 5

Goats  Small 0.02 0.02 0.00

Poultry  Small 1 1 0.0

Swine  Small 2 2 0.00

Medium 61 13 48

Contribution of livestock to meeting household (HH) nutrition requirements

Calories ProteinsCattle Small 8% 22% Medium 10% 45%Sheep Small 16% 1%Goats Small 6% 2% Medium 2% 14%Poultry Small 7% 1%Swine Small 11% 1% Medium 8% 2%

NATIONAL LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION (Meat, Milk, Eggs, Organic Matter and Energy) - 2016

 Product 

Unit  

Quantity of product

MEAT    • Cattle Tonnes 395,000• Sheep Tonnes 20,000• Goats Tonnes 64,000• Swine Tonnes 19,000• Poultry Tonnes 82,290All Meat Tonnes 580,320COW MILK Liters 2,043,061,700EGGS Number 2,882,456,300HIDES & SKIN Tonnes 2,540ORGANIC MATTER Tonnes 19,459,150ENERGY Days 45,934,000

Share of meat production by livestock species

NATIONAL LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION GDP - 2016

 Product 

Total value added (in millions TZS)

MEAT  • Cattle 1,371,700• Sheep 68,640• Goats 212,810• Swine 33,290• Poultry 391,800All Meat 2,078,270COW MILK 764,890EGGS 272,130HIDES & SKIN 1,300ORGANIC MATTER 194,590ENERGY 828,990

 TOTAL 4,140,140* LSA estimates do not include income from donkeys, other livestock species and GDP from the VC

Percent share of Livestock GDP by product type

Comparison of Livestock Production from LSA, MALF and FAO

Product Unit LSA Estimates 2016 MALF 2016

Meat Cattle Tonnes 395,049 323,775Sheep Tonnes 19,955 129,292Goats Tonnes 63,979Swine Tonnes 19,047 91,451

Poultry Tonnes 82,290 104,292Total Meat 580,320 648,810

Milk Million litres 2,043 2,127

Eggs Millions of eggs 2,882 4,353

Hides & Skins Tonnes 2,538

Organic matter Million tonnes 19,459,149

Energy Thousand days 46,000

NATIONAL LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION from ruminants (Meat, Milk, Organic Matter and Energy) & GDP– 2016 and 2031

 Product 

Unit  

Quantity of product - 2016

Quantity of production 2031

MEAT    • Cattle Tonnes 395,000 649,450• Sheep Tonnes 20,000 29,000• Goats Tonnes 64,000 159,600

COW MILK Million litres 2,043 3,400

ORGANIC MATTER

Thousand tonnes 19,459 34,171

ENERGY Thousand days 45,934 74,995

NATIONAL LIVESTOCK & GDP AT PRODUCTION STAGE for ruminants– 2016 and 2031

 Product 

Total value added (Millions TZS)

2016

Total value added (Millions TZS)

2031MEAT  • Cattle 1,371,700 2,255,000• Sheep 68,640 100,000• Goats 212,810 530,800COW MILK 764,890 1,273,060ORGANIC MATTER 194,590 1,828,200ENERGY 828,990 1,352,700

CONCLUSIONS In Tanzania, cattle and poultry are the major livestock activities Results show annual returns per head of cattle in the highland zone is

higher than other zones in traditional herds. For commercial livestock keeping, medium size dairy pays more than

ranches and cattle fattening. The contribution of traditional livestock to increasing income is substantial

only in medium size livestock herds (which are small in number), not small herds kept by poor households.

Thus, reducing household poverty in traditional livestock will require investments in productivity increasing technology and changes in policies to promote adoption.

Contribution of the sector to employment and national economy (GDP) is substantial, but it can only be raised greatly with appropriate investments in productivity increasing technologies.

The potential of the sector to overcome malnutrition is great through providing Animal Source Foods (ASF).

Livestock production will increase greatly from 2016 to 2031 but to see whether this increase will be enough to ensure “food security” in 2031 we will need to compare this projected production growth to the projected increase in consumption requirements (the next step in the LSA analysis)