SARA is a three year project, funded by Swiss Re Foundation, focused on the assessment of potential losses and impacts of earthquakes in South America
Our goal: to obtain a transparent seismic risk model, produced by local experts in a close communication with decision makers
Local experts+50
17 Local institutions
2 Europeanorganizations
Components of SARA
Tools for OpenQuake Platform
Regional and integrated risk assessment
Seismic hazard Assessment
State of the art
Active faults
Subduction
Catalogue
Crustaldeformaton
GMPE’S
Regional model
Exposure and vulnerability
models
Exposuredatabases
Fragility and vulnerability functions
Social and economic vulnerability and
resilience
Socialvulnerability
Resilience
Indirect losses
City scenarios
Quito
Lima
Medellin
Iquique
Osorno
Rancagua
Review and implementation of available hazard models into OpenQuake
Active faults Subduction > Catalogue > GMPEs > Regional
model>State of the art >
IG-EPNSGC (2010)
Compilation
Appraisal
Implementation and validation
Presenter
Presentation Notes
the primary task to be achieved by the hazard component was to appraise the current state-of-the-art in (PSHA) in the region - Collection and identification of information available about the most recent and currently under development PSHA studies at both, regional or national scale appraise for each model its consistency, transparency and reproducibility, taking into account, for example, the methods adopted to build the catalogue, the seismicity processing procedure, the criteria adopted for the definition of sources, the methods used to select ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs), the epistemic uncertainties considered and the code used for the hazard computation. In this exercise we involved as much as possible the local hazard experts. the implementation of the available models into the OpenQuake-engine, translate them into a common standard and make them all available to the South American scientific community To support this process of sharing the models, GEM is creating a SARA-dedicated version of a web-based controlled repository that will host data and tools used within this project
Build a harmonized database of shallow active faults
Active faults Subduction > Catalogue > GMPEs > Regional
The preliminary data structure defined – which has already been shared with the local scientists collaborating within this topic – is organized into four main parts: general information, parameters describing geometry and kinematics of the fault, additional data (e.g. age of last movement) and other information (e.g. the method adopted in order to identify the fault)
A homogenous earthquake catalogue for South America
Active faults Subduction > Catalogue > GMPEs > Regional
model>State of the art >
Earthquakes before 1964 Instrumental national catalogues
Collection of available catalogs
Homogenization and merging criteria
Development of a tool
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Global Regional Nacional Criterios de homogenizació Herramientas para la merge y homogenization de catálogos The first component is working on compiling the earthquake catalogue before 1964 using mostly information from historical sources, macroseismic observations and - to a minor extent - instrumental earthquakes identified in the early instrumental period. The instrumental component of the catalogue worked so far on collecting international and national catalogues CERESIS-91 catalogue (CERESIS, 1995) CENTENNIAL catalogue (Engdahl and Villaseñor, 2002) GEH catalogue ISC-GEM catalogue National catalogues (see Instrumental component) Individual studies [Beauval et al., (2013, 2010), Udías et al.,(2012), Palme et al. (2005), Lomnitz (2004), Dorbath et al. (1990), etc] A preliminary selection schema following the methodology proposed in Albini et al. (2014) for the creation of the GEH catalogue was also completed. After applying this selection process, the historical component of the catalogue contains 1537 events (see Figure 3) For the time being, six countries (Brazil, Bolivia, Colombia, Chile, Ecuador and Venezuela) shared the most updated version of their catalogues, which in most cases have been used in the national PSHA calculations We are now organising this information in a version-controlled repository hosted at GEM-Secretariat. All the participants have access to the data stored in the repository and will have the possibility the actively participate in the homogenization + integration process of the catalogue. The on-going work is focusing on the creation of software for the harmonisation of the national catalogues in a standardised format
Selection of regional or global GMPEs for probabilistic seismic hazard
Active faults Subduction > Catalogue > GMPEs > Regional
model>State of the art >
Processing
Discussion
Collection
Selection
Strong motion records
GMPEs
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Collection of stron motion records and a the use of the tool available in the hazard toolkit for the analysis of the consistency between the GMPES with the recorded data. Preselection of GMPES and assignation of weights, The team will also start the statistical analysis of the residuals between observations and predictions. The goal is to provide logic-trees for each tectonic regime (active crustal, stable continental, subduction both inslab and interface, deep-focus non-subduction events).
National and subnational exposure models based on census information and previous studies
An exposure model for countries of the Andean Region
Type of dwelling
Material of:- Exterior walls- Floors- Roof
Type of area-Urban- Rural
Mapping schemes
Exposure models based on the knowledge of local experts
Building types:
Census Chamber of
construction Field/virtual
surveys
Replacement costs by material of construction
Exposure models based on surveys and knowledge of local experts
Built area from Cadastral maps and aerial images
Building heights from Field/virtual surveys
Replacement value based on builders judgement
Mapping schemes
Review / development of vulnerability/fragility functions
Country Existing Vulnerability /fragility functions
CHL Reinforced concrete frames Housing solutions for low
