Research Frontiers in Space Weather, II

Dr. Thomas H. Zurbuchen Professor, University of Michigan

Nature of Space Weather in Research Community

Research Frontiers In Space Weather

Space  Weather  is  to  Space  Researchers  what  Cancer  is  to  Biological  Scien5sts:  A  way  to  demonstrate  the  value  and  impact  of  one’s  work!      

Role of University Community

Research Frontiers In Space Weather

Ø  Fundamental research on physical processes through theoretical investigations, data analysis, and models

Ø  Knowledge and understanding of instrument designs of instrument used today and needed in the future

Ø  Applied research by building large-scale models, analysis of predictions and improved prediction methodologies

Ø  Educate talent equipped with both skillsets

Space Weather Facts

Research Frontiers In Space Weather

Ø  Small CMEs today affect operations of power grid at $10B/yr in USA and Europe alone

Ø  A Carrington-like event is estimated to cause$2 trillion in damage Ø  The current estimate of occurrence of such an event is 12% in 10

years

Key question

Research Frontiers In Space Weather

Ø  How do we get from forecasts of 48 minutes to forecasts of 48 hours?

Ø  Modeling challenge, observational challenge, education challenge

?  

Modeling Challenge: University of Michigan Space Weather Modeling Framework

Research Frontiers In Space Weather

Ø  Multi-physics, multi-scale system only addressed by SWMF.

SWMF Control & Infrastructure Eruption

Generator

Solar Corona

Inner Heliosphere

Global Magnetosphere

Polar Wind

Inner Magnetosphere

Ionospheric Electrodynamics

Thermosphere & Ionosphere

Solar Energetic Particles

Radiation

Belts

3D Outer Heliosphere

Couplers

Flare/CME Observations

Upstream Monitors

F10.7 Flux Gravity Waves

Magneto-grams, rotation

tomography

Particle in Cell

Particle Tracker

Convection Zone

NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center Ran External Evaluation

Research Frontiers In Space Weather

Ø  The University of Michigan’s SWMF was ranked #1 in prediction skill among all available models

Ø  Result: SWMF runs in predictive mode now 24/7 on NOAA’s super-computers

March 2015 St Patrick’s Day Storm

Research Frontiers In Space Weather

New Architectures: Space Weather Distributed Sensor Network

Research Frontiers In Space Weather

Ø  Status quo: looking at Sun from Earth, L1, some observations in magnetosphere

Ø  Future architectures: multi-point measurements of significantly cheaper spacecraft operated as system

Ø  Discussed and recommended in new report by National Academies

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New Architectures: Severe Storm Example

Research Frontiers In Space Weather

Ø  Eight nano-spacecraft provide comparable measurements at ~10% of cost, and with repeat times 5-10 times quicker than traditional technologies

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!Cyclone  Global  Naviga1on  Satellite  System  (CYGNSS)    

CubeSats as Development Platform

Research Frontiers In Space Weather

Current    Emerging      Developing  Demonstrated    Within  2  years      Expected  in  5  years    0.1  degrees    0.02  degrees      0.0003  degrees  

                             (arc-­‐minute)      (arc-­‐second)  

AAtude  Control  

Current    Emerging      Developing  Demonstrated    Within  2  years      Expected  in  5  years    N/A      Inert  gas,  3D  printed    Micro  Electrospray  

     50  m/s        300  m/s    

Propulsion  

Current    Emerging      Developing  Demonstrated    Within  2  years      Expected  in  5  years    10  krad  Si  total  dose  Selec1ve  hardened    Radia1on  hardened  bus  12  months  LEO  12  months  interplanetary  Mul1-­‐year  interplanetary    

Radia5on  Tolerance  

Blue  Canyon  XACT    aUtude  control  system  

Astrium  LEON  microprocessor  

JPL  Indium  MEP  thruster  

Educational and Training Challenge

Research Frontiers In Space Weather

Ø  Education, mobilize workforce to Ø  Develop new, more compact sensors and

systems Ø  Analyze data with fundamental and

applied problems Ø  Develop and run models for research

and forecasting

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