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Presentation at workshop: Reducing the costs of GHG estimates in agriculture to inform low emissions development November 10-12, 2014 Sponsored by the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO)
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UNFCCC Inventory Reporting Needs, Collecting Data and Using this
Information to Inform NAMAs and LEDS
Stephen M. Ogle, Ph.D. Senior Research Scientist
Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory Colorado State University
Fort Collins, Colorado, USA
National GHG Inventory Guidelines
1991
Estimation of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks, OECD/IPCC
1995
IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories
1996
Revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories
2006
2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories
2013
2013 Supplement to the IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories: Wetlands
2000
Good Practice Guidance & Uncertainty Management in National Greenhouse Gas Inventories
2003
Good Practice Guidance for Land-Use, land use Change and Forestry
UNFCCC Reporting Requirements
• Annex I Parties shall use the methodologies in the 2006 IPCC Guidelines, unless stated otherwise in the UNFCCC Annex I inventory reporting guidelines, and any supplementary methodologies agreed by the COP, and other relevant COP decisions (decision 24/CP.19)
• Non-Annex I Parties provide biennial update reports (decision 2/CP.17)
• Use the Revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines, 2000 IPCC Good Practice Guidance, and 2003 IPCC Good Practice Guidance for LULUCF
Basis for IPCC Good Practice Guidance
Result • Credible • Reliable • Useful
Inventory • Documented • Assessed for Uncertain9es • Subject to QA/QC • Efficient use of resources • Uncertain9es reduced over 9me
TCCCA
• Transparent • Consistent • Complete • Comparable • Accurate
Basic Inventory Method
Most sources can use defaults from
IPCC Guidelines – Only “Key
( Categories” ~ 10 - 15 Sources ) need use more detailed
parameters
G u i
d e l i n
e s
Activity Data usually can be
found in national or international
statistics . O
f f i c i
a l S
t a t i s
t i c s
“Key Categories” ( usually ~ 10 - 15
Sources ) account for over 95 % of a
countries emissions , focus
resources on these
E m i s
s i o n
E s t
i m a t
e s
= X Emission Estimate
Emission Factor
Activity Data
IPCC Tier Methods • Tier 1 is lowest level of methods
– IPCC default equations and factors
• Tier 2 is the next level of methods – IPCC default equations with country-specific emission factors
• Tier 3 are the most advanced – Country specific method/equations and emission factors – Requires testing of method to demonstrate that the approach is an
improvement over lower tiers
• IPCC considers it good practice to use higher tier methods with key emission source categories
Ogle et al. 2014, Global Change Biology
Basic Inventory Method
Most sources can use defaults from
IPCC Guidelines – Only “Key
( Categories” ~ 10 - 15 Sources ) need use more detailed
parameters
G u i
d e l i n
e s
Activity Data usually can be
found in national or international
statistics . O
f f i c i
a l S
t a t i s
t i c s
“Key Categories” ( usually ~ 10 - 15
Sources ) account for over 95 % of a
countries emissions , focus
resources on these
E m i s
s i o n
E s t
i m a t
e s
= X Emission Estimate
Emission Factor
Activity Data
Improve Activity Data Collection
• Mine existing data including national statistics and data compiled by international organizations
• Develop surveys that monitor practices across a network of locations, households, farms, etc.
• Elicit expert knowledge through a survey of experts
Improve Activity Data Collection • Crowd-sourcing data collection to compile information on
practices
• Utilize geospatial data developed from remote sensing technologies or other sources – Could be combined with surveys in a phased sampling design
Produced through USAID Project in Central America
Basic Inventory Method
Most sources can use defaults from
IPCC Guidelines – Only “Key
( Categories” ~ 10 - 15 Sources ) need use more detailed
parameters
G u i
d e l i n
e s
Activity Data usually can be
found in national or international
statistics . O
f f i c i
a l S
t a t i s
t i c s
“Key Categories” ( usually ~ 10 - 15
Sources ) account for over 95 % of a
countries emissions , focus
resources on these
E m i s
s i o n
E s t
i m a t
e s
= X Emission Estimate
Emission Factor
Activity Data
IPCC Working Group: Update Emission Factors
• Commission a scientific working group to develop emission factors through Technical Support Unit for the National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Program through a synthesis of the literature and modeling
• Factors should be officially reviewed and be given the IPCC “Stamp of Approval” – Allows country compilers to utilize them as specified in the guidance
without having to defend the use of the new factors
• Disseminate the emission factors through the IPCC Emission Factors Database
Ogle et al. 2014, Global Change Biology
Ogle et al. 2013, Environmental Research Letters
Basic Inventory Method
Most sources can use defaults from
IPCC Guidelines – Only “Key
( Categories” ~ 10 - 15 Sources ) need use more detailed
parameters
G u i
d e l i n
e s
Activity Data usually can be
found in national or international
statistics . O
f f i c i
a l S
t a t i s
t i c s
“Key Categories” ( usually ~ 10 - 15
Sources ) account for over 95 % of a
countries emissions , focus
resources on these
E m i s
s i o n
E s t
i m a t
e s
= X Emission Estimate
Emission Factor
Activity Data
Improve National GHG Mitigation Analyses
• National inventories are compiled for reporting GHG emissions to the UNFCCC
• Arguably the real value of these efforts is using the information to evaluate mitigation potentials and inform policy actions
– Mitigation is part of the national communications that country’s submit to the UNFCCC
• Inform policy development for LEDS and NAMAs
Ogle et al., accepted, ACSESS Book Publication
Mitigation Analysis for South Africa • UNFCCC Eastern and Southern Africa GHG Inventory Capacity-
Building Project • Developed the inventory in the Agriculture and Land Use National
Greenhouse Gas Inventory (ALU) software • Conducted a mitigation analysis for livestock and manure
management • One mitigation analysis featured manure management
• Option 1: 50% of manure currently managed in anaerobic lagoons is proposed to be managed in anaerobic digesters with 75% methane capture efficiency
• Option 2: Same as Option 1 with 75% of manure managed in anaerobic digesters
• Option 3: Same as Option 1 with 85% methane capture efficiency • Option 4: Same as Option 2 with 85% methane capture efficiency
Ogle et al., accepted, ACSESS Book Publication
Thanks for your attention!
• Ogle, S.M., L. Buendia, K. Butterbach-Bahl, F.J. Breidt, M. Hartman, K. Yagi, R. Nayamuth, S. Spencer, T. Wirth, and P. Smith. 2013. Advancing national greenhouse gas inventories for agriculture in developing countries: improving activity data, emission factors, and software technology. Environmental Research Letters 8, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/015030
• Ogle, S.M., L. Olander, L. Wollenberg, T. Rosenstock, F. Tubiello, K. Paustian, L. Buendia, A. Nihart, and P. Smith. 2014. Reducing agricultural greenhouse gas emissions in developing countries: providing the basis for action. Global Change Biology 20:1-6.
• Ogle et al., accepted, Developing National Baseline GHG Emissions and Analyzing Mitigation Potentials for Agriculture and Forestry using an Advanced National GHG Inventory Software System. In ACSESS book, Synthesis and Modeling of Greenhouse Gas Fluxes and Carbon Changes in Agricultural and Forest Systems to Guide Mitigation and Adaptation.
• New degree program focused on greenhouse gas emissions in agriculture and forestry
• Provide training to a new generation of practitioners focused on reducing greenhouse gas emissions in agricultural and forestry systems
• Offered at Colorado State University, Department of Ecosystem Science and Sustainability
• Website: warnercnr.colostate.edu/mgma • E-mail: [email protected]
