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Livable Urban Futues: A critical Pathway to Transitioning
UGEC into Future Earth
Patricia Romero-Lankao, David Simon,
Thomas Elmqvist Corrie Griffith
AGU December 2014
Livable Urban Futures
I. Why do we need it?
II. How are we designing it?
III. Who is participating?
IV. What will it deliver?
New Orleans
I. Why? Urbanization and urban areas are key drivers of planetary environmental changes
Group VI (“haves”): Canada Czech Republic France Germany Greece Hungary Italy Japan Korea Netherlands Poland Portugal Spain United States
Group III (“haves and have some”): Argentina Australia Belgium Brazil Chile Mexico Saudi Arabia United Kingdom Venezuela
Group V (“have nots”): Burkina Faso Congo Ethiopia Kenya Madagascar Malawi Mali Mozambique Nepal Niger Tanzania Uganda Yemen Zambia
Group VII (“have some”): China Sri Lanka Thailand
Group VIII (“have some”): Indonesia Kazakhstan Romania Russian Federation Ukraine
72 countries total, 93% of global population
Romero Lankao, Nychka and Tribbia 2008
India
Urban areas face greatest risks
De Sherbinin-Romero Lankao (2008): The hazard risk of each city represents a cumulative score based on risk of cyclones, flooding, landslides and drought
Contoured: hazard risk associated with climate change
II. How?
1990’s Core projects Long-term Science plan (top- down) Scientific committee International Project Office
2015 Platforms/ networks and clusters Flexible scientific strategy Centers of synthesis Engage with stakeholders
6
Network of networks
II.Urban Team
Xuemei Bai SC liaison
Paty Romero Lankao David Simon
Debra Roberts EC liaison
Thomas Elmqvist Corrie Griffith (ASU IPO)
Livable Urban Futures
Timeline Scoping Meeting
February 2014 UTT Establishment January 2015
UGEC Synthesis Conference November 2014
Scoping/What is Urban Meeting March 2015
UTT/Boot Meetings Summer 2015
Urban Initiative established by Jsnuary 2016!
Survey
Who? Some of our Urban Networks
IAI
UBC
UCCRN
APN
GCP ISET
ELLA
SETIS ICLEI
ACCCRN
START
III. Other Urban Communities
• Asia-Pacific Network for Global Change Research (APN) • Asian Cities Climate Change Resilience Network (ACCCRN) • C40 Cities Climate Leadership Group (C40) • European Initiative on Smart Cities | SETIS - European Commission • Evidence and Learning from Latin American Cities (ELLA) • ICLEI Local Governments for Sustainability (ICLEI) • Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research (IAI) • International Finance Corporation (IFC) • Institute for Social and Environmental Transition-International (ISET) • Global Change System for Analysis, Research, and Training (START) • Living with Environmental Change (LWEC) • Red Cross/Red Crescent Climate Centre • Rockefeller Foundation 100 Resilient Cities initiative • Slum and Shack Dwellers International (SDI) • UN-HABITAT • World Bank Low-Carbon Liveable Cities Initiative • World Bank Low-Carbon Livable Cities Initiative
IV. What?
Mission: to champion science that supports and challenges action, reflecting the centrality of the urban in transforming pathways to sustainable development
IV. What? Online Survey
• What are key urban research/policy questions?
• What are the research needs for future urban research?
• Who are the potential key partners?
• What other critical components must be considered in the design?
• How can local and regional science and policy communities be best involved?
Dynamic Urbanizing Planet
• How do urbanization/cities drive planetary environmental changes?
• How do they vary at different
scales (space, place, time, culture)?
• What are the risks and tipping
points in biodiversity, climate, air quality and hydrology?
Global Urban Development
• How does GEC affect urban populations, livelihoods, economic activities, and infrastructures?
• How vulnerable or adaptable
are urban actors, economic activities and infrastructure to current temperatures and to a future warmer world?
Urban Transformations towards Sustainability • What are the limits, barriers and
opportunities to transition to a more sustainable and resilient urban world?
• What lifestyles, ethics and approaches to sustainable, economically successful and livable cities are compatible with a transition to global sustainability?
– A set of four papers in the journal, Earth’s Future
A Special Issue on Urbanization and Carbon
A comparison of contemporary research on urbanization, cities and carbon
Engineers Social scientists Natural scientists
Definitions of
"carbon" of
urban
relevance
An input (fossil fuels) that
directly or indirectly
supports human activities;
an output (GHG)
A natural resource, an
element embedded in
materials (e.g., cement) or
a pollutant/waste
The flow, flux or exchange of carbon
among pools (e.g., materials, fuel,
biosphere, hydrosphere, and
atmosphere).
Definition of
"urbanization
" of urban
carbon
relevance
A process shaped by
growth
- in the proportion of
population living in cities
- of urban infrastructure,
i.e., paved streets, water
supply and sewerage
systems, electricity
A process resulting from
-shifts (transitions) in
population dynamics, or
-economy (from primary to
secondary and tertiary
sectors),
- Or increased social
complexity
A process that alters land cover and
ecosystems, and significantly
concentrates and disrupts “natural”
carbon flows and pools. This process
is dominated by anthropogenic
carbon fluxes
Romero-Lankao et al., 2014
What is the Urban Anthropocene? Patterns and Pathways to Sustainability
FTI
International Scientific Conference 7-10 JULY 2015 Paris, France Session proposal: The Urban Anthropocene is now: transformative dynamics and solutions in urban systems Conveners :T. Elmqvist ; X. Bai Special Issue in Current Opinion In Environmental Sustainability (proposal in progress) www.commonfuture-paris2015.org
Future Earth Website: www.icsu.org/future-earth