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Lini Wollenberg, CCAFS November 10, 2016
Lessons Learned for Climate Smart Livestock and Food Crop Intensification SystemsCOP22 Side event hosted by the Indonesian Agency for
Agricultural Research & Development (IAARD)
2
The challenge of climate change adaptation and mitigation
Is more agricultural intensification enough?
Climate drives 32-39% of yield variation
Our systems are sensitive to climate, not resilient to it
Ray et al. 2015
Synergies (32%) and tradeoffs (62%) of food security and
adaptation with CSA
Mean effect from random sample of 130 studies (55 comparisons)
ProductivityAd
apta
tion
6% 16%
46% 32%SynergiesTradeoffs
Tradeoffs
11/9/16 5
Drought tolerant maize can increase yields 20-30% in dry conditions
11/9/16 6
Safe Alternate-Wetting-and-Drying (AWD)
30% water
20-50% GHG
Without compromising yield
• Keep flooded for 1st 15 days and at flowering
• Irrigate when water drops to 15 cm below the surface
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16 15.0
8.7
-42%
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
t CO
2-eq
/ ha
*sea
son
4.93.9
-20%
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
-22%-28%
6.04.7
6.44.6
Hilly mid-slopes Delta low-lying
Summer-Autumn
Winter-Spring
Sander et al. in press IRRI
AWD Conventional
11/9/16 7
Landscapetransitions
Crop transitions
Rice crops
Crops(non rice) Fertilizer Livestock
- 4.7M
Tota
l Ann
ual t
CO2e
Landscape and crop transitions
Management practice improvements
Increased emissions
Reduced emissions/ increased C
sequestration
(1,865,626)
(905,776)
(433,447)(616,320)
(32,068)
(819,848)
435,313
1,723,672
5,802
2.1 M
Agricultural development’s mitigation co-benefits
11/9/16 8
Contributions of mitigation scenarios compared to the 2°C mitigation goal for agriculture
Series1
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5
0.21
0.40
0.92
1.19
1.23
Mitigation (GtCO2e/yr)
RCP2.6 (IMAGE) (2)
GCAM2.6 (3)
MESSAGE2.5 (4)
Technical practices USD20/t (8)
GLOBIOM USD20/t (9)
1 GtCO2e/yr mitigation target to
stay within 2° C
Goal
9
11/9/16 10
See https://sites.google.com/a/irri.org/ccac/home
11/9/16 11
The transition to CSA will require major shifts
• Agricultural intensification and productivity is not enough• trade-offs with adaptation (>half of time)• mitigation co-benefits are substantial, but not enough to
meet the 2 °C target• Need more practices with joint adaptation-productivity
outcomes• And need more transformative mitigation practices (2.5-5x)• Finance, capacity enhancement and technology transfer are
needed, but so is technology development for CSA