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AIR POLLUTION, CLIMATE CHANGE AND HUMAN HEALTH
Patrick L. Kinney
Professor and Director Climate and Health Program. Columbia University
July 7, 2015 Paris
Source: 2015 Lancet
Commission Report
Windblown Dust
Anthropogenic Ozone and PM2.5 Pollen and Allergies
Wildfire Smoke
Source: Fiore et al.,
JAWMA 2015
Relative Contributions of Emitted
Air Pollutants to Warming and
Cooling of the Earth’s Atmosphere
Source: Fiore et al.,
JAWMA 2015
Source: Jacob and
Winner, Atmos.
Environ., 2009
STRATUS CONSULTING
Health Impact Assessment
4 steps (from Campbell-Lendrum 2006):
•Identify health outcomes sensitive to climatic
influences, (via surveillance etc)
•Quantify the dose–response relationship for a baseline
climate period, (via a range epidemiologic methods)
•Define future climate exposure scenarios, (via
dynamical modeling)
•Estimate the burden of disease that is attributable to
exposure…and the burden that could be avoided by
plausible reductions in exposure. (via simple
calculations)
Source: Burnett et al., Environ. Hlth. Perspec. 2013
Green circles: Ambient Air Pollution Epidemiology
Blue triangles: Second Hand Smoking Epidem.
Black circles: Active Smoking Epidem.
Integrated Exposure Response Functions for PM2.5-related Mortality
President Obama’s Proposed “Clean Power Plan” Rule
http://www2.epa.gov/carbon-pollution-standards/clean-power-plan-proposed-rule
• Applies to existing power plants
• Goal is to reduce CO2 emissions by 30% by 2030
• Control costs are compared to 2 kinds of benefits: • Global climate benefits, based on the social cost
of carbon
• Health co-benefits in US related to reduced air pollution
Climate Benefits Health Benefits Control Costs Net Benefits
Bill
ions o
f D
olla
rs in
203
0
010
20
30
40
50
60
70
Benefits and Costs in 2030 for Full Implementation
If we limit emissions of greenhouse pollutants, we
have the opportunity to also achieve direct health
benefits from cleaner air
• Air-Health benefits tend to occur close to where the emissions are reduced, so
–Local populations receive direct benefits,
–These benefits occur right away
• This provides powerful incentives for local actions to achieve both climate and community health objectives
Climate and Health Win-Win
State of the Science
We have a pretty good understanding of how ozone will respond to climate and precursor emission changes; PM2.5 story is less clear but emerging. Health impacts of are well understood
For pollen, wildfires and dust, there has been relatively less modeling work across the full continuum from climate to exposures to health
There is an urgent need for high quality, sustained research into the multiple interactions between climate and air quality of both human and natural origin
