Prediction of the impact of climate change on coffee and mango growing areas in Haiti

Anton Eitzinger, Carolina Navarette, Stefanie Neno Peter Laderach, Stephania Carmona, Carlos Navarrow

August, 28th, 2014, Hotel Montana, Port au Prince, Haiti

Decision and Policy Analysis (DAPA)

•Multidisciplinary team, we think that better decisions can be made with the power of information

•We have a supporting function for other CIAT research areas, globally we are leaders in different themes, among them climate change in CCAFS

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Source: http://ipcc-wg2.gov/AR5/

Principles for Effective Adaptation

• Adaptation is site and context specific• A first step is reducing vulnerability and exposure to present climate

variability• Planning and Implementing are contingent on social values, objectives,

and risk perceptions• Decision support is most effective when it is sensitive to context and

decision processes• Constraints can impede adaptation planning and Implementation• Maladaptation, because of poor planning, overemphasizing short-term

outcomes, can increase vulnerability• Exists co-benefits, synergies, tradeoffs between adaptation & mitigation,

different feedbacks of adaptation measures and regions

Climate-Resilient-Pathways

• Present Vulnerability• Perceptions (climate

risks & adaptive capacity)• Decision making

process

1• Participative

Prioritization of adaptation measures• Analysis of benefits

and tradeoffs

• Implementation• Evaluation and

Monitoring• Spatial Scaling CRP

2 3

Towards climate adapted sustainable agriculture: Bringing together

Resi

lienc

e

Technology adapted

Technology adapted

+Site specific

management

Technology adapted

+Site specific

management+

Agro climatic forecasts

Technology adapted

+Site specific

management+

Agro climatic forecasts

+ Politics to facilitate

adaptation and mitigation

climate adapted sustainable production

Simple Agriculture

Prediction of the impact of climate change on coffee and mango growing areas in Haiti

Modeling Earth climate system

Observe climate Model climate

B

9

Predecir los impactos a los cultivos

Suitability of crops: MaxEnt model

Suitability of crops: Ecocrop model

Predict impacts on cropsResearch tools

1. How can we predict future crop climate suitability?By Environmental niche modeling using bioclimatic variables.

Predict impacts on crops (EXPOSURE)

Bioclimatic variables for suitability modeling

• Bio1 = Annual mean temperature• Bio2 = Mean diurnal range (Mean of monthly (max temp - min temp))• Bio3 = Isothermality (Bio2/Bio7) (* 100)• Bio4 = Temperature seasonality (standard deviation *100)• Bio5 = Maximum temperature of warmest month• Bio6 = Minimum temperature of coldest month• Bio7 = Temperature Annual Range (Bio5 – Bi06)• Bio8 = Mean Temperature of Wettest Quarter• Bio9 = Mean Temperature of Driest Quarter• Bio10 = Mean Temperature of Warmest Quarter• Bio11 = Mean Temperature of Coldest Quarter• Bio12 = Annual Precipitation• Bio13 = Precipitation of Wettest Month• Bio14 = Precipitation of Driest Month• Bio15 = Precipitation Seasonality (Coefficient of Variation)• Bio16 = Precipitation of Wettest Quarter• Bio17 = Precipitation of Driest Quarter• Bio18 = Precipitation of Warmest Quarter• Bio19 = Precipitation of Coldest Quarter

derived from monthly temperature & precipitation

Expert validation of current suitability

• Table sectorielle Agricole du sud,• Les Responsables du Ministère de l’Environnement• le staff du programme & partenaires• Table sectorielle Agricole de la Grand Anse• Direction de protection Végétale (DPV)• Institut National du Café Haïtien (INCAH)• Programme de Mitigation des Désastres Naturels• Staff du ministère de l’agriculture a Damien1. For Coffee: The Island in the map named Corail must be replaced by Iles des

Cayemites and not suitable for coffee, this is marginal.2. The coast of les Irois is not suitable for coffee3. The coast of Anse d’Hainault is suitable for mango

Coffee and Mango in Haiti

Diversification crops

Results

Coffee & Mango vs. Altitude

Results

3 strategies for adapting coffee systemsto future climate change

1. Invest in areas that will become more suitable for coffee (conserve natural resources)

2. Maintain coffee production in areas that will become slightly less suitable through targeted measures

3. Start diversifying where coffee is likely to decrease significantly, eventually switching to cocoa

Common beans

• decrease quite substantially• up to -70% of areas climate-suitable, available and without limitations

in soil capacity• currently most areas are limited by maximum temperatures and could

benefit from heat tolerance resistant varieties

Results

cocoa

• possess excellent suitability for cocoa in many areas and this is not predicted to be affected by changes from long-term climate patterns

• opportunity to benefit from an increasing global demand for cocoa production• Main problems are small production volumes, low quality and continuing issues with

fragile producer organizations should be the main focus for development

Results

Maize and Sorghum

• maize yields have clearly indicated a strong negative yield response to accumulated days above 30 °C

• specific response of maize to increased high temperature days, modeling climate-suitability on a monthly timescale is highly uncertain

• sorghum will increase its suitability in Haiti between 4 and 8% in available land with no or low limited soil capacity.

Results

Yam and Malanga• About 6 species (out of 600 species of yam) are

cultivated in the Caribbean• we modeled 2 varieties (D. rotundata, D. trifida or

cushcush ) of yam and malanga (dasheen)• Results show that cushcush yam is losing

suitability• White and yellow yam is gaining suitability and

available areas remain more or less constant all over Haiti by 2050

• Malanga is shifting its geographical areas of suitability but generally losing suitability and areas

Results

Groundnut

• important secondary crop grown throughout most of rural Haiti

• Our climate-suitability analysis reveals that climate change could provide an opportunity for this crop

Results

• Intersect climate suitability with– Land use restrictions– Protected areas & conservation– Soil capacity & erosion– …

Haiti's landcover (1:300,000 scale) - year 2008 and Haiti's soil use capacity for agriculture (1:250,000 scale) - year 1998; created by the Haitian National Centre for Geospatial Information (CNIGS); downloaded from: http://www.haitidata.org

Danger for forests

Less area for cropping

In mid altitude zones , potentials for diversification, but crops are competing

Haiti

New areas, need strategic investment

Results

Key results• Threat by sea level rise and climate variability• Coffee yield/quality may decline at lower elevations as a result of lower

rainfall and higher night and daytime temperatures• Risk of conversion of high-altitude forests and protected areas to cropland• Ecosystem services provided by coffee must be protected through risk

management (short- and long-term)• Areas where climate change will affect coffee only marginal, farmer should

adapt their production by investing (shade management, irrigation, new varieties)

• In areas where coffee will be much less suitable in the future, landowners should begin diversifying (e.g cocoa to maintain the ecosystem benefit of agroforestry systems)

• Mango will remain highly suitable and could, therefore , replace in lower altitudes coffee and dry beans systems

• Sorghum and yam are also good options for crop diversification, since its likely that they become more suitable in the future

Further recommended actions

• Develop climate stress-resilient coffee varieties; validate agronomic management; improve market linkages

• Financial assistance (subsidies, insurance, payment for ecosystem services)

• Promote diversification as short-term risk and bridge to full crop substitution as long-term strategy in respective areas

• Strenghen capacity and linkages with regional and global networks to exchange knowledge and climate-change adaptation expertise