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Food For All on A Changing Planet
Photo: Matthieu Paley, National Geographic
Kimberly NicholasLund University Centre for Sustainability Studies, Lund, Sweden
www.kimnicholas.com@KA_Nicholas
2
Imag
e: M
ark
Voge
l
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Smallholders: 1/3 people, grow 70% of food
5Photo: Martin Mejia/AP, in The Guardian
6Photo: Reuters/Paulo Whitaker
12% ice-free land used for crops (size of South America)
Ramankutty et al., 2008; Leff et al., 2004
7Photo: Yann Arthus-Bertrand
22% ice-free land used for grazing livestock (size of Africa)
Ramankutty et al., 2008; Leff et al., 2004
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Land is limited on the blue planet…
NASA PPM
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ALL water on Earth(1384 km sphere)
Liquid fresh water (270 km sphere)
Fresh water in lakes & rivers(56km sphere)
Data from Shiklomanov, In Gleick 1993,“Water in Crisis.” Visualization by USGS Water Science Photo Gallery
Water Resources Are Limited…
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Agricultural production is 92% of human water footprint
Hoekstra and Mekonnen, 2012, PNAS
Phot
os: N
ation
al G
eogr
aphi
c
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Traditional fertilizer
Photos: Peter Essick, National Geographic
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Modern fertilizer
Photos: Peter Essick, National Geographic Photos: UNEP 2011, National Geographic
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Photo: Mishka Hnner, 2013. Tascosa Feedyards waste lagoon, Texas. Compiled from Google Earth.
Livestock manure: from valuable nutrient to toxic waste
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Livestock “probably largest sectoral source of water pollution”
(In US: 55% erosion, 37% pesticides, 33% N & P)(FAO, 2006, Livestock’s Long Shadow)
Photo: NASA
We’re losing diversity
15http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/2011/07/food-ark/food-variety-graphic
We need a new food paradigm
Slide from Jon Foley. Figure from Foley et al., 2011, Nature
Right now, we have too little food security…
Slide from Jon Foley. Figure from Foley et al., 2011, Nature
… and too much environmental harm
Slide from Jon Foley. Figure from Foley et al., 2011, Nature
We need more real, fair & resilient food
Slide from Jon Foley. Figure from Foley et al., 2011, Nature
… and less environmental damage
Slide from Jon Foley. Figure from Foley et al., 2011, Nature
Which causes more global warming?
Photo: Jodi Cobb, National Geographic Photo: Lee Turmpore, National Geographic
Livestock are major greenhouse gas sources
Photo: Jodi Cobb, National Geographic Photo: Lee Turmpore, National Geographic
Sources: FAO, 2006, Livestock’s Long Shadow; 20-year global warming potentials: IPCC WG1 2013, Table 8.A.1; Transport: IPCC WG3 2014, SPM
18%Total greenhouse gas emissions (CO2-equivalent):
14%• 37% methane (84x stronger than CO2)• 65% nitrous oxide (264x stronger than CO2)
23Henson, 2011, “Warming World: Impacts by Degree.”
Climate change threatens crop yields
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What about quality?
Climate change threatens wine quality
25Nicholas, 2015, Scientific American Graphic: Jen Christiansen, Scientific American
Climate change threatens wine quality
26Nicholas, 2015, Scientific American Graphic: Jen Christiansen, Scientific American
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Hunger remains a problem for 1/8
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Progress in poverty & food security
FAO, IFAD, & WFP (2013): State of Food Insecurity in the World
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Food has never been so plentiful
Source: Our World In Data, Max Roser
What’s the leading determinant of health around the world?
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Source: Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington
What we eat determines global health
32Source: Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington
Diets kill more than disease
Cassidy et al., 2013, ERL
Only 59% of calories produced become foodCurrent crops could feed 4 billion more if fed
directly to people
Global meat consumption has increased dramatically since 1960
Godfray et al., 2010, Science
https://xkcd.com/1338/
Slide courtesy Emily Cassidy. Source: Cassidy et al., 2013, ERL.
Meat is inefficient to produce human nutrition
Data are for USA. Source: Eshel et al., 2014, PNAS
Beef uses 28x more landCompared with dairy, poultry, pork, or eggs
beef
Data are for USA. Source: Eshel et al., 2014, PNAS
Beef uses 11x more waterCompared with dairy, poultry, pork, or eggs
beef
Data are for USA. Source: Eshel et al., 2014, PNAS
Beef produces 5x more greenhouse gasesCompared with dairy, poultry, pork, or eggs
beef
Data are for USA. Source: Eshel et al., 2014, PNAS
Beef produces 6x more reactive nitrogenCompared with dairy, poultry, pork, or eggs
Data are for USA. Source: Eshel et al., 2014, PNAS
Beef has the largest footprint of animal products
How much meat are we consuming?
Data: FAO 2013; map: chartsbin.com
How much meat is recommended?
~0.7 grams / kilogram
90 kilogram person (200 lbs)
63 grams per day = 23 kilograms per year
Otten et al., 2006. Dietary Reference Intakes: The Essential Guide to Nutrient Requirements. National Academies Press. Slide from Emily Cassidy
Source: FAO Food Balance SheetsSlide from Emily Cassidy
Source: FAO Food Balance SheetsSlide from Emily Cassidy
Recommended intake
Most countries are consuming more meat than recommended for health - and the environment
How much meat are we consuming?
Data: FAO 2013; map: chartsbin.com
Too much! Ukraine: 48.5 kg/person
Recommended level
How can we do better?
Health and environmental goals align in plant-based diets
49
Sweden’s new diet guidelines: health + environment
2015. “Find your way to eat greener, not too much and be active”
50
Stop wasting 30-40% of food grown
http://itm.marcelww.com/inglorious/
Urban Food Forestry
Clark and Nicholas, 2013, Landscape Ecology51
Urban trees could meet substantial food needs
Very Food Insecure:
Plant 1%city land
Recommended fruit intake: Plant 2% city land
52Clark and Nicholas, 2013, Landscape EcologyCase study in Burlington, Vermont, USA
City planners recognize benefits of trees for wildlife…
Clark and Nicholas, 2013, Landscape Ecology
“wildlife” N= 30 urban forestry master plans
80
60
40
20Perc
ent m
entio
ning
con
cept
Andr
ea C
olon
77%
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…but not for people.
Bren
dan
Calla
han
Clark and Nicholas, 2013, Landscape Ecology
13%
“wildlife” “food”N= 30 urban forestry master plans
80
60
40
20Perc
ent m
entio
ning
con
cept
Andr
ea C
olon
77%
54
2 in BC! Saanich and Selchelt
“In terms of immediacy… and feasibility… [reduced meat consumption] is clearly the most attractive opportunity. Give up meat for one day a week initially, and decrease it from there.”
Decrease meat consumption
Dr. Rajendra PachauriChair of IPCCQuoted in The Guardian, 7 September 2008 Photo: Elizabeth Ruiz
Data: Scarborough et al., 2014, Climatic Change. Graphic: Brad Plumer, vox.com
Data: Scarborough et al., 2014, Climatic Change. Graphic: Brad Plumer, vox.com
Smaller portions of meat, meat-free meals go a long way
“Meat is a wasteful use of water and creates a lot of greenhouse gases. It puts enormous pressure on the world’s resources. A vegetarian diet is better.”
Go further
Lord Nicholas SternFormer World Bank chief economistQuoted in The Daily Mail, 27 October 2009
Data: Scarborough et al., 2014, Climatic Change. Graphic: Brad Plumer, vox.com
Vegetarians had half the carbon footprint of heavy meat eatersFish-eaters and vegetarians had similar carbon footprintsVegans go the extra mile
“We conclude that reduced ruminant meat and dairy consumption will be indispensable for reaching the 2°C targetwith a high probability, unless unprecedented advances in technology take place.” Hedenus et al., 2014, Climatic
Change
EAT Forum 2014
Some exciting models
Picture from @kaityarnall
62Quote by Michael Pollan; graphic design by Rob Kelley, namtab.com
We vote with our forks three times every day
Photo: Seven Stans, National Geographic
If we’re serious about addressing climate
change, we have to get serious about reducing meat
consumption.@KA_Nicholas Image: Bill Hogan on vox.com
High-impact actions for individuals to reduce greenhouse gas emissions
65Wynes & Nicholas, in prep
Based on: • 42 sources (25
peer-reviewed)• 16 countries• 161 scenarios