Cities in 2065: Science and Foresight, Sir Mark Walport, Government Chief Scientific Adviser

Future of Cities: Thinking for the long-term Sir Mark Walport Chief Scientific Adviser to HM Government

RCUK Water Showcase // June 30th 2015

Foresight Future of Cities

Cities matter

Cities are dense concentrations of people, jobs, culture, productivity

Cities are the places where policy objectives succeed or fail

E.g.

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Employment

Health Growth

Water efficiency

Housing


The UK is in the process of devolving powers to cities

The UK has been devolving powers to cities for 15 years… …the pace is now accelerating

Greater London Authority created

English Mayoral Referendums

Manchester Devolution Deal

Cities and Local Government

Devolution Bill

2000 2012 2014 2015 2013

City deals (Waves 1 & 2)

2007

Further powers transferred to GLA

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Many recent reports on cities

What are the prominent themes and signals about the future of our cities?

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What we are currently thinking: Future cities should be liveable cities

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Foresight Future of Cities 6

To realise attractive future cities, there must be greater engagement with

water as a critical development issue

Gas Street Basin, Birmingham


Cities affect water, water affects cities

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recreation

biodiversity resilience

community

health

Cities affect the natural water cycle

Water affects city well-being & development

flash-flooding

run-off evaporation

infiltration


Foresight Land Use Futures recommended water issues feature systematically into decision-making on national and local development

Source: RTPI (2014)

Significant overlap between projected future city growth and areas of serious water stress


But the nature of city systems reveals some fundamental challenges

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Challenge 1: City systems have long cycles of impact

New towns

Green belts City deals

GLA Service economy

Railway investment

Devolution

Municipal bonds

Car-oriented development

Digital technologies

Cotton trade

Canals

National Grid

Growth of UK Ports

Brownfield development

Welfare state

Shipbuilding

Impo

rtan

ce o

f citi

es a

s au

tono

mou

s un

its

2000s 1900s 1800s

Increasing obesity levels

City networks

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Heritage

Attractiveness of place

Creative Economy

Teacher attraction & retention

Housing Student performance

School capacity

Land availability

Quality urban form

Employment Well-being

Minimising isolation & loneliness

Neighbourliness

Cultural events & activities Universities

Innovation

Economic productivity

Connectivity

New technology

Agglomeration opportunities

Short commute Strong labour market Active travel

Travel to work

Challenge 2: City systems are highly interdependent

ICT infrastructure

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Thinking with a system-wide view

What do we have to do? Respond with appropriate ways of thinking

NOW FUTURE

Thinking with a long-term view

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How can we better support this?

Greater availability of data is driving new analytical approaches

Emerging ‘Science of Cities’ potential for future cities development

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Research has key role

Research required to:

• Address knowledge gaps • Drive innovation • Develop UK skills, expertise

Significant contribution by UK Water Partnership to Foresight Future of Cities project that maps the current state of research and critical knowledge gaps


Many knowledge gaps to be addressed

Water quantity & quality Impact of disease

vectors changes Urban pollution Invasive species Food production

changes

User behaviour Lifestyle impacts Regulation for water

efficiency Community engagement Policy effectiveness

Infrastructure Impact of scaling Refurbishment options Cross-sectoral links Investment approaches Smart monitoring

Groundwater Flooding risk Sustainable urban

drainage systems Urban landscape

design

Extreme events Water cycle patterns Risk and resilience Mitigation strategies

Ecosystem services Biodiversity impacts Social impacts Urban farming growth Health benefits


Diversity in evidence types required

Local consultation and visioning

Academic reviews

Workshop feedback

Future trends analysis Comparative data

Disruptive ideas

Aspirational visions

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Diversity in methods required

Speculative design

Future projections

Data analytics & modelling

Major city empowerment

London-centric

Smaller cities focus

Baseline 2037

UK national system “What-if” scenarios

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Include local people

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“My purpose is to inquire into the influence which the progress of modern science and industry may exercise upon the planning, and particularly upon the aspect, of the Cities of the Future…

The Cities of Tomorrow will be more readily susceptible to transformation and adornment than the Cities of Yesterday.”

Eugene Hénard (1910)

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Every effort has been made to trace copyright holders and to obtain their permission for the use of copyright material. We apologise for any errors or omissions in the included attributions and would be grateful if notified of any corrections that should be incorporated in future versions of this slide set. We can be contacted through [email protected] .

@foresightgovuk

www.gov.uk/go-science