Challenge and Reconstruct Learning, Mekong Delta

Challenge and Reconstruct Learning (ChaRL): cross sectoral nego6a6ons in the Mekong delta Dr John Ward Mekong Region Futures Ins6tute October 2015

Sustainability = conflict between compe4ng interests sectors

& Sustainability = complexity

ê advances in complex system methods

ê�widening policy-‐science gap

ê�engagement process to promote systems

learning!!

MERFI -‐ Mekong Region Futures Ins6tute

Policy arenas vary: structured and unstructured problems

Structured Problem

excluded knowledge = con6nuing conflict

excluded values = con6nuing conflict

Unstructured problem

Consensus of values

Cer

tain

ty o

f fac

ts a

nd k

now

ledg

e

No Yes

Yes

No

Increasing science-policy gap



Policy has to do with man’s problems with coping with his future

…..policy brings to statement what is judged to be possible,

desirable and meaningful for the human enterprise. In this

sense policy is the nexus of fact, value and ul6mate meaning in

which scien4fic, ethical and theological-‐philosophical reflec4ons

meet.” (Winter 1966)

Challenge and Reconstruct Learning (ChaRL)




Mekong Delta Seal Level Rise and salinity intrusion

3 rice crops

2 rice crops

rainfed rice

shrimp

rice-shrimp

Salinity iso-line (4 g/l)

Salinity intrusion effects: -  Local agricultural land

uses -  Farmer’s livelihoods - National food security

and exports

Levels of salinity intrusion: - Climate change-induced SLR - Droughts - Upstream water use changes -  Land uses and salinity

management




Step 2: Shared visions for the Mekong Delta in 2040

0.2 ha rice-‐shrimp farming can sustain family

No damage from sea level rise

No environmental pollution

No salinity intrusion

Irrigation for aquaculture projects provide better living conditions

Industrial development projects provide better living conditions

Government policies respond successfully to environmental challenges -‐> control of industrial pollution and disease

Government policies improve a poor family’s living conditions




Step 3: Existing beliefs

Stakeholder beliefs Scien6fic evidence

Hard adapta4on measures improve livelihoods

SoP adapta4on measures improve livelihoods




Salinity intrusion + Dams + drought More saline land and less rice production (282,000 households)

SLR by 30 cm: 50,000 ha affected ( of 1.8m ha) • 120,000 tonnes less rice (23m tonnes)

SLR 30 cm + dams + drought 500,000 ha affected •  1,000,000 tonnes less rice


Recommended policy: the upgrade of exis4ng sea-‐dikes and construc4on of major estuary sluice gates in Cai Lon, Cai Be, Ham Luong and Co Chien rivers. 13,000 ha of land use change 355,000 ha <2g/l


Recommended Policy: land use change:

180,000 ha land use change

up to 8 farming

systems

exis4ng rice shrimp retained


Principle adaptation options

1.   Challenge and Reconstruct Learning (ChaRL) Large-‐scale sluice gates and dikes (Hard adapta6on)

–  $5b-‐$8b investment required –  Some land-‐use change has to be reversed –  Annual maintenance costs of about $500m – Main risk: damage/loss to storm surge and erosion

Land-‐use change (SoT adapta6on) –  Incen4ve schemes for re-‐op4mised land use –  Re-‐organisa4on of farm systems and market access – Main risk: livelihoods in extreme years/events


Challenged beliefs

Ini6al beliefs Post ChaRL beliefs

Hard adapta4on measures improve livelihood

Most effec4ve response to salinity intrusion combines hard and soP measures

SoP adapta4on measures improve livelihood

Small-‐scale infrastructure and land-‐use change most effec4ve adapta4on


Final workshop: amended beliefs and learning

– Less polarized debate between agencies

– Greater recognition of sectoral feedbacks and tradeoffs

–  Integrated research approaches and multi sectoral deliberations favoured

–  Avoid panaceas: diversity in policy deliberations and targeted implementation strategies

–  Some science outputs readily adopted (eg rice salinity tolerance) Structured problems

–  a different science role in unstructured problems: sustained negotiation and iterative solutions


Final workshop: amended beliefs and learning

– Emphasize the importance of the participatory process to discover adaptation strategies

– Accounting for National development agendas is crucial


Key lessons from ChaRL: 1.  To avoid project irrelevance and sustain engagement, Partners

need to identify the problem and co-design research and criteria of success

2.  Cross sectoral impact can only be achieved through participatory processes if: A.  The problem involves multiple sectors with contested values and

objectives AND

B.  The problem requires integration of multiple sources of uncertain information and knowledge

3.  Developing future visions is a crucial step to replace sector objectives with a plausible shared normative benchmark

4.  Use tools/methods to manage complexity and assist decision makers discover sustainable solutions

5.  Evaluation metrics need to correspond with the research question. E.g. Systems learning


Thank You

Dr John Ward (MERFI) [email protected]

Dr Alexander Smajgl (MERFI) [email protected]

MERFI - Mekong Region Futures Institute

Changing beliefs

Workshops 1 & 2 Workshops 3 & 4 Workshop 5 Sea dikes will reduce salinity and increase agricultural produc4on

Hard adapta4on measures improve livelihood

Most effec4ve response to salinity intrusion combines hard and soP measures

New rice varie4es help increase produc4on under increasing salinity

SoP adapta4on measures improve livelihoods

It is not necessary to do “big dykes” but small construc4ons are more important

Sea dikes create risk for rice as storm surges increase

Sea dikes will reduce water quality

Small-‐scale infrastructure and land-‐use change most effec4ve adapta4on

Shrimp-‐rice rota4on farming increases farm income

Salinity increase triggers emigra4on

Rice–aquaculture is best along rivers/canals (mainly fish, less shrimp)

Upstream dams cause water shortage in the Mekong Delta

Improved educa4on improves adap4ve capacity and livelihoods

Investments need to be priori4sed and go to most vulnerable areas



•  Smajgl A, Ward J, 2013. A framework to bridge science & policy… Futures, 52(8), 52-‐58.

•  Foran T, Kemp-‐Benedict E, Ward J, Smajgl A, 2013. A technique…foresight... Ecology and Society, 18(4).6.

•  Smajgl, A., & Ward, J. (2015). A design … research impact evalua4on… Journal of Environmental Management, 157, 311-‐319.

•  Smajgl, A., Foran, T., Dore, J., Ward, J., & Larson, S. (2015). Visions, beliefs… Ecology and Society, 20(2):15.

•  Smajgl A, Xu, J, Egan, S., YI, Z.-‐F., Su, Y.,Ward J, 2015. Assessing …PES...China Environmental Modelling and So@ware, 69, 187-‐195.

•  Smajgl, A., Toan, T.Q., Nhan, D.K., Ward, J., Trung, N.H. , Tri, L.Q., Tri, V.P.D., Vu, P.T. (2015). Responding to rising sea-‐levels in Vietnam’s Mekong Delta. Nature Climate Change, 5, 167-‐174.

Shrimp can increase income by 50%

Farming systems

Total variable costs Gross return Gross margin

Benefit-‐cost ra4o Rice Shrimp Rice Shrimp

Two rice crops (n = 46)

25.3 ± 1.1 46.8 ± 2.0

21.6 ± 1.9 0.9 ± 0.1

Rice – shrimp (n = 48)

6.0 ± 0.6 24.1 ± 7.9

16.3 ± 2.1

50.4 ± 9.5

36.8 ± 5.1 1.2 ± 0.3


Salt tolerant rice crops improve livelihoods

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7Salinity (‰)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Yie

lds

(tons

ha

-1) Tolerant

Less tolerant Sensitive

Tolerant: Y = 5.1 - 0.2X - 0.02X2

Less tolerant: Y = 5.3 - 0.9X + 0.05X2

Sensitive: Y = 5.0 - 1.4X + 0.1X2


Downscaled climate

projec6ons

Land use and crop modeling in a

changing climate

Ecological stocks and

flows Dams and irriga6on

Livelihoods and adapta6on poten6al

Ci6es and estuaries

Research elements Basin hydrological run off model:

sediments nutrients

Floodplain dynamics: floods

and salinity

MERFI - Mekong Region Futures Institute

Science

Challenge and Reconstruct Learning, Mekong Delta