BALANCINGCLIMATE SCIENCE

&RELIGIONPaul H. Carr

www.MirrorOfNature.org

IMBALNCED OPINIONS •“On Earth Day Time is Running Out,” Secretary of State John Kerry affirmed the conclusion of 97% of climate scientists: Increasing greenhouse gas emissions are raising sea levels and increasing weather extremes. USA Today

In the contrary opinion,• “The Climate-Change Religion,” House Committee Chairman Lamar Smith calls climate science “religion”. Wall St. J.

Relating science and religion: 1. Conflict, 2. Contrast (defining boundaries between separate magisteria), 3. Contact (dialogue) 4. Confirmation

“The boundary is the best place for acquiring knowledge.” Paul Tillich

Deepen our understanding of

1. Difference between climate science & weather

2. Religion, per Pope Francis’ encyclical and US Visit.

1880-1980: 0.3 C TEMP INCREASE1980- 2012: 0.55 TEMPERATURE INCREASE

(Hansen, J., Ruedy, R., Sato, M., and Lo, K., 2010: Global surface temperature change, Rev. Geophys. 48, RG4004.)

INCREASES IN AVERAGE ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURES SINCE 1880

• OUR PRESENT DECADE HAS BEEN THE WARMEST IN CENTRURIES

• IS THE “PAUSE” SINCE 2000 STATISTICALLY AND CLIMACTICALLY SIGNIFICANT?

Boundary between Weather & Climate ?

“Climate in a narrow sense is usually defined as the average weather, or more rigorously, as the statistical description in terms of the mean and variability of relevant quantities over a period of time ranging from months to thousands or millions of years.” IPCC

2. Boundary between Science & Religion ?

1880-1980: 0.3 C TEMP INCREASE1980- 2012: 0.55 TEMPERATURE INCREASE

(Hansen, J., Ruedy, R., Sato, M., and Lo, K., 2010: Global surface temperature change, Rev. Geophys. 48, RG4004.)

LONG TERM CLIMATE AVERAGES REMOVE THE SHORT TERM WEATHER FLUCTUATIONS

THE “FAUX PAUSE” IS NOT STATISTICALLY AND CLIMACTICALLY SIGNIFICANT. OUR PRESENT DECADE HAS BEEN THE WARMEST IN CENTRURIES

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90% of our Planet’s Heat Content is in the Oceans

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The rate of sea level increase correlates with the blue line of the CO2 increase that drives Greenhouse warming.

Sea level rise is a proxy for global temperature, since it is due to thermal expansion (50%) and the melting of ice (50%)

SEA LEVEL RISE IS A BETTER MEASURE OF GLOBAL WARMINGTHAN TEMPERATURE

Meteorologist (weatherman) John Coleman, who co-founded The Weather Channel, said

www.dailymail.co.uk/.../article.../Oct 23, 2014 - 'The ocean is not rising significantly. The polar ice is increasing, not melting away.

Would a sea level rise of 10 feet by 2050 be significant?

Blue: Sea level change from tide-gauge data (Church J.A. and White N.J., Geophys. Res. Lett. 2006; 33: L01602)Red: Univ. Colorado sea level analyses in satellite era (http://www.columbia.edu/~mhs119/SeaLevel/).

Present Sea level rise rate is 4 times that of 1900.

1 ft./100 years.

7.5 in./100 years

3 in. /100 years

Recent prediction for 2100: 2 to 6 feet

Earth’s Most Famous Climate Scientist Issues Bombshell Sea Level Warninghttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/07/20/sea_level_study_james_hansen_issues_dire_climate_warning.html

To be published in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics

The study—written by James Hansen, NASA’s former lead climate scientist, and 16 co-authors, concludes that glaciers in Greenland and Antarctica will melt 10 times faster than previous consensus estimates, resulting in sea level rise of at least 10 feet in as little as 50 years.

The study brings new importance to a feedback loop in the ocean near Antarctica that results in cooler freshwater from melting glaciers forcing warmer, saltier water underneath the ice sheets, speeding up the melting rate.

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NASA photo shows Thwaites Glacier in Western Antarctica. Ice in west Antarctica is melting at an accelerating rate,

Richard Alley, a glaciologist at Penn State University and an author of the last IPCC report said, “It involves the physics of ice fracture that we really don’t understand. •If the Thwaites Glacier breaks free from its rocky berth, that would liberate enough ice to raise sea level by three meters—nearly ten feet. 17

TREADING WATER, NATIONAL GEOGRAPHIC, FEB 2015

Meteorologist (weatherman) John Coleman, who co-founded The Weather Channel, said

www.dailymail.co.uk/.../article.../Oct 23, 2014 - 'The ocean is not rising significantly. The polar ice is increasing, not melting away.

Is this statement, published in the non-peer reviewed Daily Mail, correct from a climatology perspective?

• The Sept 2012 minimum area set a record low.• Sept 2013, 2014 is larger but not climate trend changing.• http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/ Nat. Snow & Ice Data Ctr.

ARCTIC MELTING

A darker Arctic is boosting global warmingFrom1979 to 2011, less reflecting ice, more absorbing water made North Pole warm twice as

fast as the rest of the earth. http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2014/02/13/1318201111.abstract

Proc. National Academy of Science, Feb 18, 2014.

ARCTIC MELTING IN THE LAST 32 YEARS SATELITE PHOTO

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PAST COLD ARCTIC PRESENT WARMER ARCTIC

Higher pressure sub-tropic constrained the low-pressure arctic

Lower pressure difference allows waves of arctic air to invade the South: Warmer & Colder Winters.

Cold Air Oscillates South from the ArcticThe Arctic is warming faster than the rest of our earth.

Therefore the temperature and the accompanying pressure difference that used to keep arctic air up North comes South, bringing cold air to Atlanta & New Orleans.

The Winters of our Discontent Charles H. Green, Scientific American, pgs 51-55, Dec.2012 A Wacky Jet Steam Is Making Our Weather Severe , Scientific American, Nov 18, 2014

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Paul H. Carrwww.MirrorOfNature.org

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Hopefully humorous, intuitive,near term weather (notclimate) perspective

A rising tide lifts all boats.

Everyone should benefit from increasing economic prosperity.

Prophetic Pope Francis:

•MORAL IMPERATIVE: Stop plundering our planet for profit, the poor suffering the most.

200 Page Encyclical Laudato Si: On Care for our Common Home. June 2015

CONSCIOUSNESS OF CREATION

Encyclical Laudato Si: On Care for our Common Home. By Pope Francis, S.J. June 2015

1. “LAUDATO SI’, mi’ Signore” – “Praise be to you, my Lord”. In the words of this beautiful canticle, Saint Francis of Assisi reminds us that our common home is like a sister with whom we share our life and a beautiful mother who opens her arms to embrace us. “Praise be to you, my Lord, through our Sister, Mother Earth, who sustains and governs us, and who produces various fruit with coloured flowers and herbs”.

10. I do not want to write this Encyclical without turning to that attractive and compelling figure, whose name I took as my guide and inspiration when I was elected Bishop of Rome. I believe that Saint Francis is the example par excellence of care for the vulnerable and of an integral ecology lived out joyfully and authentically. He is the patron saint of all who study and work in the area of ecology, and he is also much loved by non-Christians. He was particularly concerned for God’s creation and for the poor and outcast…He was a mystic and a pilgrim who lived in simplicity and in wonderful harmony with God, with others, with nature and with himself. He shows us just how inseparable the bond is between concern for nature, justice for the poor, commitment to society, and interior peace.

Popular Pope Francis, S.J. confounds categories.He graduated from technical school as a Chemical Technician.

Pope Francis, White House, September 23, 2015 “Mr. President,” Francis said, speaking in English despite his discomfort with the language, “I find it encouraging that you are proposing an initiative for reducing air pollution. Accepting the urgency, it seems clear to me also that climate change is a problem which can no longer be left to a future generation. When it comes to the care of our common home, we are living at a critical moment of history.” “To use a telling phrase of the Rev. Martin Luther King, we can say that we have defaulted on a promissory note and now is the time to honor it,” he said.

Pope Francis about to address the US Congress, 9/24/2015

CREATION OF WEALTH “It goes without saying that part of this great effort is the creation and distribution of wealth. The right use of natural resources, the proper application of technology and the harnessing of the spirit of enterprise are essential elements of an economy which seeks to be modern, inclusive and sustainable.”

“RELIGION is about rebinding and rereading…putting together a meaningful world…Meanings are co-constructed by biohistories of humans living in a larger earth community…Humans do not make meaning without histories, genetic evolution, stable climate, and surrounding communities.”

10/26 BALANCING ECONOMICS & ETHICS

Deepen our understanding of

1. Difference between climate science & weather

2. Religion, per Pope Francis’ encyclical and US Visit.

Swallowtail Butterfly with Divine Proportion 1.618

BEAUTY in SCIENCE &

SPIRIT.

Chapter 9 Nature’s Beauty vs. Its Utility:The environmental challenge.