Uncertainties and Climate Change Adaptation:   problems of local experience, high science and coffee growing in South India

Anshu Ogra PhD Student

Centre for Studies in Science Policy Jawaharlal Nehru University

Location of field area: coffee plantations in Western Ghats, South India

Yield estimate and Rainfall

• “Coffee Board of India has reduced the production forecast for 2014-15 (oct/sep) to 5.517 mln 60-kg bags in its post monsoon forecast. This forecast puts the production 4% down from a level of 5.746 mln bags projected in its July 8, 2014/15 post- blossom estimate. The reasons attributed for this were unfavorable weather and disease pressure. The Arabica production forecast was further reduced by 98,333 bags from the previous forecast to 1.660mln bags, while the Robusta projection was cut by 130,833 bags to 3.857 mln bags.”

- International Coffee Report ( December, 2014-15)

Coffee auctions

Performance of the rainfall

Crop expected Impacts on prices Impact on plantation Returns expected by the grower

Rainfall performs as per expectation

Estimates indicate possibility of a good crop in the forecast.

Prices are set because market demands can be met.

Less incentive to add more inputs in order to improve the yield. Rather there is tendency to reduce inputs in order to increase the profit margin.

An assured but average returns are expected.

Fluctuation in rainfall is experienced. Blossom showers have not performed as expected

Estimates indicate possibility of a below average crop in the forecast.

Prices are high because there is a possibility that demand will not be met.

With high prices there is an opportunity to earn more but fluctuation in rainfall limits this possibility as yield be less.

Though the yield is low there is a possibility that grower will be able to draw average returns and not suffer loss because of increase in prices. Given that fluctuation in rainfall is minor and it is not draught like situation.

Weather Conditions in Major Coffee

Producing Countries

Expected Price

Investment made in the Plantation

Local Weather Conditions

Expected Yield

Local Weather Conditions

Expected Income

Realized Yield

Possible scenarios

Scenario 1: Less or no investment + normal rainfall = Low yieldScenario 2: Less or no investment + variation in rainfall = Very low yieldScenario 3: Good investments + normal rainfall = High yield Scenario 4: Good investment + variation in rainfall = Average to low yield

Survey response: growers' choice between irrigation and insurance

Source: Primary Survey

only irrigationOnly insuranceBoth insurnace and irrigation None of the two

RISc information network

Rainfall pattern for three districts of Karnataka from 2007-2012

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120

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Rainfall ( in mm) Number of rainy days

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120

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Rainfall ( in mm)Number of rainy days

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120

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Rainfall (in mm)Number of rainy days

Chikmaglur

Kodagu

Hassan

Data Source: Coffee Board Database

Performance of RISc in KarnatakaData Source: Agriculture Insurance Company (AIC) Office, Bangalore

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 20140

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ChikmaglurKodaguHassan

Fluctuation in New York futures prices (for Arabica) and London futures prices ( for Robusta) for the period between 2006-2014

Source: Coffee Board Data base

2006-2007 2007 - 2008

2008-2009 2009-2010 2010-2011 2011-2012 2012-2013 2013-20140

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New York Futures (Arabica) in U.S Cents/lbLondon Futures (Robusta) in U.S Cents/ lb

The core equation

Investment + rainfall = yield

Irrigation RISc

Irrigation on the field

Package of Practices• For South- West Monsoon Areas• Robusta harvesting and processing.• Stripping off-season berries in berry borer infested areas.• Collection of Arabica gleaning and disinfestation/disposal of berries infested with berry borer.• Regulation of permanent shade.• Pruning and handing of Arabica• Pre-blossom manuring. • Pre-blossom spraying with 0.5% Bordeux mixture against leaf rust and anthracnose (twig die-back).• Control measures against root mealybug, if necessary.• Collection and destruction of pupae of hairy caterpillars.• Clearing fire path.• Nursery: Preparation of secondary beds, filling arranging basket/ bags and transplanting.• Preparation of land for new planting, removal of under-growth and selective felling of trees and there disposal. • Blossom irrigation during the second fortnight for Robusta. • In young clearings, watering young seedlings when necessary. •  • March • South-West monsoon areas• Completing of harvesting and gleaning of Robusta. Stripping off-season berries in berry borer infested areas. Disinfestation/ disposal of berry borer-infested gleanings.• Pruning and handling of Arabica and Robusta. • Permanent Shade regulation.• Pre-blossom manuring.• Pre-blossom spraying with 0.5%Bordeaux mixture if not completed earlier.• Stem-borer tracing.• Collecting and destruction of pupae of hairy caterpillars.• Control measures against root and shoot mealybug and green scale, if necessary.• Fire path cleaning.• Nursery: Transplanting and after-care of seedlings. • New Clearing: watering young seedlings when necessary.• Sprinkler irrigation for backing.

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London Futures Prices (Robusta)New York Futures prices (Arabica)

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Central Coffee Research InstituteKelagur Estate (Chikmaglur)Chandrapore Estate (Hassan)Cauvery Peak estate (Y-ercaud)

Showing fluctuation in New York futures prices ( for Arabica) and London futures prices ( for Robusta) for the period between 2006-2014. Data Source: Coffee Board database

Showing fluctuation in rainfall. Special emphasis on the dip in rainfall in the year 2003. Data Source: Primary work. Based on data gathered from the estates.

Concluding remarks

1. Rain gauges can measure the variation in rainfall but not the impact of that variation.

2. Irrigation has the potential to undo the impact of poor rainfall but the decision to irrigate is not informed by how rainfall preforms.

3. Irrespective of how closely high science is able to track, follow or forecast a weather event through downscaling it is not sufficient to reflect on the lived uncertainty that this weather event triggers.

4. Downscaling a weather event is not the same as localizing it.

Thank you