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"The Future Of Retail" is often an untold story. The line between ecommerce and in-store retail in blurring and converging. Brick and mortar is the foundation for omni-channel retailing. Ecommerce is a channel, not a business, and will increasing rely on its growth from physical retail locations.
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THE FUTURE OF RETAIL
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Ranking
1)
2)
3)
4)
5)
Top 5 Corporate Venture Group in US
Focused on Retail Tech
Only Multi-Stage VC Specifically
Focused on Retail Tech
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S&P 100Largest Retail Real Estate Company In The World
> +Retail Sales
US Online Sales
The Truth Is An Often Untold Story
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Old Cliché“THE MALL IS DEAD”
New Cliché“ECOMMERCE IS DEAD”
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“THE DEATH OF PURE PLAY ECOMMERCE”
The Future of Retail is Omni-Channel
In-Store vs. Online In-Store + Online
1 + 1 = 3
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Ecommerce vs. In-Store
Cost of Traffic = Online Marketing vs. Rent
Conversion Rate: 3% Online vs. 20-30% Walk-ins
Basket Size: Low/Hyper-Targeted vs. 1.5x-3x+ Higher
Product Returns: Up to 40% vs. Much Lower In-Store
Ecommerce Sites: 65% fail in 18 months,
90% in 5 years!9
Ecommerce Is Big$304
Billion
2014
15.5% Annual Growth
Source: eMarketer, 2014. US Market. 10
In-Store Retail Is Huge!!!
$304 Billion
2014
$4.4Trillion
93.6% = In-Store
6.4% = Ecommerce
Source: eMarketer, 2014. US Market. 11
$225 $263
$304 $347
$393 $440
$492
16.2% 16.9%15.5% 14.2% 13.0% 12.2% 11.6%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
$-
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
2012 2013 2014 E2015 E2016 E2017 E2018
% C
han
ge$
US
Bill
ion
s
US Ecommerce Sales % Change
US Ecommerce, Declining Growth Rate
Source: eMarketer, 2014
Now
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$25
$42
$58
$76
$98
$115
$133 82.6%
70.0%
37.2%32.2%
28.4%
16.7% 15.9%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
$-
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
$160
2012 2013 2014 E2015 E2016 E2017 E2018
% C
han
ge$
US
Bill
ion
s
US Mcommerce Sales % ChangeSource: eMarketer, 2014
Now
US Mcommerce, Declining Growth Rate
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5.2%4.2% 4.4% 4.3% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0%
4.6%3.5% 3.7% 3.6% 3.3% 3.3% 3.3%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
2012 2013 2014 E2015 E2016 E2017 E2018
% C
han
ge
% Change of US Retail Sales % Change of US In-Store Sales
US Total Retail & In-Store RetailMature With Consistent Growth
Source: eMarketer, 2014
Now
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By 2018…
Source: eMarketer, 2014
Mcommerce Will Grow From11%27% of Ecommerce!
Ecommerce’s Lunch
Mcommerce
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The Future of Ecommerce is Mcommerce
• Mcommerce will be great for physical retail!
• Mobile = Local
• The future of Ecommerce is localized Mcommerce
• 80% of retail sales happen within 20 miles of shopper’s homes, we live in a local economy
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eMarketer Ecommerce Data: Includes products or
services ordered using the internet, regardless of
the method of payment or fulfillment.
Attribution!!!17
In-Store Sale or Online Sale?
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IN-STOREPICKUP
In-Store Sale or Online Sale?
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In-Store Sales Online Sales
Ecommerce = 8.9% of Retail Sales by 2018
What % Attributable
To Physical Stores?
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In-Store Sales
Ecommerce+
McommerceSales
Retail Sales
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Omni-Channel Retailing
Order From Anywhere
Fulfill From Anywhere
Desktop Mobile
Call Center
Flash Sales
Catalog
In-Store
In-Store
Warehouses Pop-Up Stores
Vending Machines
Kiosks
Distribution Centers22
Reverse Showrooming is 2x as common as Showrooming!
Reverse Showrooming
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Physical Retail Brands DIGITAL
Ecommerce Brands PHYSICAL
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Mall Omni-Channel
The Rise of E2B (Ecommerce to Brick) Brands
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The Rise of E2B (Ecommerce to Brick) Brands
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The Rise of E2B (Ecommerce to Brick) Brands
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MillennialsMallennials
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Ecommerce= Channel≠ Business
It’s Just “Commerce”
Future Prediction…
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