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Finding our futurein Retail
Greg Maloney
President & CEO
JLL Americas Retail,
ICSC Board of Trustees
April 2015 Unemployment Rate
Economy
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
5.4%
USA
4.1%
Hawaii
3.6%
Honolulu
7.9
17.1
9.6
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
1-m
onth
net
cha
nge
(tho
usan
ds)
U-6 Unemployment
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
True unemployment is still well above past lows.
Economy
Economy
Only 46.1% of Americans are engaged in full time employment,
with 30+ hours per week and a regular paycheck. Source: 7/14/16, Gallup Good Jobs
111.998.0
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Con
sum
er c
onfid
ence
Inde
x
Source: JLL Research, Conference Board
Consumer confidence still below its last peak.
Economy
Source: Conference Board, June 2016
U.S. Job Market
Economy
23.4%
Say jobs are “plentiful”
23.3%
Say jobs are “hard to get”
Source: JLL Research, Conference Board
A growing gap between the present and future.
Economy
Present Situation
Future Expectations
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Con
sum
er c
onfid
ence
Inde
x
Economy
Value shopping is now for everyone. Low-income families plus higher-income shoppers
who’ve now developed a taste for discounts.
92.3%
7.7%
Bricks-and-Mortar
e-Commerce
7.7% of all retail sales are e-Commerce.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
e-Commerce
U.S. Retail
Sales,
Q1 2016
What percentage of e-Commerce
sales come from traditional
bricks-and-mortar retailers?
e-Commerce Penetration for Select Product Categories, 2005-2030F
Source: Forrester, Bain
e-Commerce
e-Commerce Penetration
Actual Forecast
Experience Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs
Commoditized goods,
Internet/impersonal
shopping
Premium goods,
experiential shopping
Experience
Source: World Tourism Organisation
Global Tourism Outlook – Tourist arrivals forecast to reach 1.8 billion by 2030 globally.
Experience
Source: Hawaiii.gov
Hawaii Visitor Volume Will Exceed 9 Million by 2018
0.0%
20.0%
40.0%
60.0%
80.0%
100.0%
120.0%
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
Mill
ions
Visitor volume
Experience
Source: CoStar, JLL
Retail Vacancy Rate
2.3%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 (Q2)
Hawaii San Francisco Los Angeles South Florida New York City
Five trends impacting
retail’s future
Food, food, food!
Touch screen transformation
Merchandise with meaning
Reality star treatment
Fan base
In 1992 we spent $163 at grocers for every $100 in restaurants.
Today we spend $96 at grocers for every $100 spent in restaurants.
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
Jan-
92Ja
n-93
Jan-
94Ja
n-95
Jan-
96Ja
n-97
Jan-
98Ja
n-99
Jan-
00Ja
n-01
Jan-
02Ja
n-03
Jan-
04Ja
n-05
Jan-
06Ja
n-07
Jan-
08Ja
n-09
Jan-
10Ja
n-11
Jan-
12Ja
n-13
Jan-
14Ja
n-15
Jan-
16
Grocery stores ($M)
Restaurants & bars ($M)
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Food, food, food!
Panera 2.0 is fully digital. Mobile app, instore kiosk and web ordering combined.
Touch screen transformation
Smart fitting rooms
Touch-screen mirrors
POS mobile checkout
Communal tables with charging stations
Touch screen transformation
Five trends
impacting retail’s
future
Food, food, food!
Touch screen transformation
Merchandise with meaning
Reality star treatment
Fan base