Upload
group-gti
View
227
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
SPONSORED BY IN ASSOCIATION WITHAN EVENT FROM
“The class of 2017”
The Anthologist24 November
SPONSORED BY IN ASSOCIATION WITHAN EVENT FROM
Simon RogersDirector, GTI
WELCOME
SPONSORED BY IN ASSOCIATION WITHAN EVENT FROM
SPONSORED BY IN ASSOCIATION WITHAN EVENT FROM
09.03.16 28.04.16 30.06.16 15.09.16 24.11.16
IDEAS WORTHKNOWING
#BNEWS16
2016 dates
SPONSORED BY IN ASSOCIATION WITHAN EVENT FROM
#BNews16
We want to hear from you via twitter
SPONSORED BY IN ASSOCIATION WITHAN EVENT FROM
Today’s agenda: “The class of 2017”Welcome & trendence UK research updateSimon Rogers, Director, GTI The Economic UpdateDeclan Curry, Broadcaster, Business & Economics journalistHow to get the best out of the class of 2017Stephen Isherwood, Chief Executive, AGRPride and prejudice: shifting mindsets in an age of uncertaintyGraeme Wright, Strategy Director, Havas PeopleThe millennials of 2017Toby Young, Journalist, Author & Co – founder of the West London Free School
SPONSORED BY IN ASSOCIATION WITHAN EVENT FROM
Our click throughs per employer are
Up 43% YOY
Engineering click throughs
up 40% YOY
IT click throughs
up 122% YOY
Market share up over last quarter
SPONSORED BY IN ASSOCIATION WITHAN EVENT FROM
SPONSORED BY IN ASSOCIATION WITHAN EVENT FROM
SPONSORED BY IN ASSOCIATION WITHAN EVENT FROM
SPONSORED BY IN ASSOCIATION WITHAN EVENT FROM
…60 secondupdate
SPONSORED BY IN ASSOCIATION WITHAN EVENT FROM
&
SPONSORED BY IN ASSOCIATION WITHAN EVENT FROM
A*AA Law Students
50%2012
18%2016
SPONSORED BY IN ASSOCIATION WITHAN EVENT FROM
Declan CurryBroadcaster, Business and Economics Journalist
THE ECONOMIC UPDATE
SPONSORED BY IN ASSOCIATION WITHAN EVENT FROM
UK: 2016The Brexit recession that never happened ...• Economic growth stronger than expected• More people in work • Strong consumer but weak biz investment• Sharp fall in pound makes imports dearer• Government deficit still enormous
SPONSORED BY IN ASSOCIATION WITHAN EVENT FROM
UK: 2017 ? • Growth: already slowing, eases further• Price rises may overtake wages
- makes people feel poorer in real life• Govt increases infrastructure spending;
eases welfare squeeze = higher deficit• Interest rates low, inch towards increase
SPONSORED BY IN ASSOCIATION WITHAN EVENT FROM
GLOBAL: 2017 • Trump vs Congress• Cheap money vs Govt spending• USA slowdown ? • China: permanently lower growth• France: Presidential election - could EU survive Le Pen & Fr-exit ?
SPONSORED BY IN ASSOCIATION WITHAN EVENT FROM
UK GROWTHEconomic growth lower, but stronger than expected post-Brexit vote:• Q3 2016: +0.5% q/q• Q2 2016: +0.7% q/qGDP up 15 quarters in a rowEconomy 8% stronger than before c. crunch
SPONSORED BY IN ASSOCIATION WITHAN EVENT FROM
GROWTH FORECASTSEconomists expect slowdown next year:• Q2 2016 ACTUAL: +2.1% y/y• Q3 2016 ACTUAL: +2.3% y/y• FY 2016 HMT FCST: +2.0% y/y• FY 2017 HMT FCST: +1/1% y/y(HMT compiled avg of independent fcasts)
SPONSORED BY IN ASSOCIATION WITHAN EVENT FROM
PRODUCTIVITYStagnant; key for higher living standards … • Q3 2016: +0.4%
y/y• Q2 2016: +0.4%
y/yBefore crash, annual increase was +2.0%UK behind Germany, USA, France, Italy.2015 figs: UK 18 %points below G7 average
SPONSORED BY IN ASSOCIATION WITHAN EVENT FROM
INFLATIONA surprising slowdown in rising prices:• Oct 2016: +0.9%
y/y• Sept 2016: +1.0%
y/yPrices were expected to rise faster …The “Marmite effect” after Brexit …Falling pound increases costs of imports...
SPONSORED BY IN ASSOCIATION WITHAN EVENT FROM
STERLINGPound down sharply since Brexit vote … • £1 = €1.12 (avg Oct 16 - down 18% y/y)• £1 = $1.23 (avg Oct 16 - down 20% y/y)• Basket of currencies: down 18.5% y/y OctPushing up import prices (+7%) & petrolFull impact felt in 2017 ?
SPONSORED BY IN ASSOCIATION WITHAN EVENT FROM
WAGESWages still rising faster than prices:• Avg earnings: +2.3% y/y
(3mths to Aug 16, inc bonuses)• Private sector: +2.5% y/y
(3mthSept)• Public sector: +1.4% y/y
(3mthSept)Key to 2017 – will prices overtake wages?
SPONSORED BY IN ASSOCIATION WITHAN EVENT FROM
EMPLOYMENTHighest rate of employment on record:• July-Sept 16: 31.80m people in work• UP 461,000 from previous year• Employment rate = 74.5% UP 0.7
%ptsRise in men, women, full-time & part-timeFall in temps & agency workers
SPONSORED BY IN ASSOCIATION WITHAN EVENT FROM
YOUTH EMPLOYMENTFewer young people in work:
• Jul-Sept 16: 3.91m 16-24 yr olds in work
• DOWN 65,000 from previous year• Rate = 54.4% DOWN 0.3 %pts
SPONSORED BY IN ASSOCIATION WITHAN EVENT FROM
YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT… but also fewer young people out of work
• Jul-Sept 16: 591,000 16-24 yr olds (ILO)• DOWN 33,000 on previous year• Rate = 13.1%, DOWN 0.6%pts y/y
SPONSORED BY IN ASSOCIATION WITHAN EVENT FROM
UNEMPLOYMENTContinues to fall …• Jul-Sept 16: 1.60m people unemployed• DOWN 146,000 on previous year• Rate = 4.8%, DOWN 0.5%pts y/yFewer men & women unemployedTotal was 2.5m in Jul-Sept 2013
SPONSORED BY IN ASSOCIATION WITHAN EVENT FROM
RETAIL SALESStill underpinning overall economic growth • Aug-Oct 16: +4.5%
y/y• Total sales Oct 16: £7.7bn• Total Internet Oct 16: £1.0bnInternet sales up 26.8% on previous year¾ of Internet sales from online-only retailer
SPONSORED BY IN ASSOCIATION WITHAN EVENT FROM
HOUSING MARKETGrowing after initial Brexit shock … • UK House Price Index: +7.7% Sept 16
y/y• Mortgage Approvals: 62,932 Sept
16DOWN 9.6% on previous year;
UK• Housebuilding Starts: 36,400 Q2
2106UP 6% on Q2 in 2015; England
only
SPONSORED BY IN ASSOCIATION WITHAN EVENT FROM
HOUSEHOLD DEBTRising gradually over the last year … • Debt = 142% of gr. disp. income (Q2 16)More people going bust:• 24,251 insolvencies Eng & Wales (Q3 16)• UP 19.3% from previous year• 2,424 in Scotland (Q3); UP 8.5% y/y
SPONSORED BY IN ASSOCIATION WITHAN EVENT FROM
GOVERNMENT DEBT• Deficit: £76bn
2015 (actual) (new borrowing) £56bn 2016 (fcst)• Debt:
£1.60 TN 2015 (act) (accumulated debt) £1.64 TN 2016 (fcst)More borrowing if govt increases spend on infrastructure and eases welfare squeeze?
SPONSORED BY IN ASSOCIATION WITHAN EVENT FROM
SERVICESRebounded after immediate Brexit shock:• Output (Aug 16): +0.2% m/m
+3.2% y/y• Markit/CIPS PMI: 54.5 (best since
Jan)80% of UK economy; includes retail, leisure, finance, professions, govt admin & culture
SPONSORED BY IN ASSOCIATION WITHAN EVENT FROM
MANUFACTURINGManufacturing output up 3 months in a row:Post-Brexit fall in sterling helping exporters? • Output: +0.6%
m/m Sept 16
+0.2% y/y Sept 16• Markit/CIPS PMI: 54.3 (Oct 16) … 10% of UK economy; 8% of jobs
SPONSORED BY IN ASSOCIATION WITHAN EVENT FROM
TRADESlight improvement in trade gapStill buy far more than we sell; most with EU• Q3 16 trade deficit: £11.0bn• Q2 16 trade deficit: £12.7bn• Q2 16 current acc: -£28.7bn vs -27bn Q1Already record deficit in foreign income 2015
SPONSORED BY IN ASSOCIATION WITHAN EVENT FROM
MARKETS (Figures at 17 Nov 2016. Source: FT)
• FTSE 100:6794.71, +9% y/y
- Brexit effect? 2nd highest price on 10 Oct • Brent Crude oil: $47.01,
+17% y/y - can OPEC deliver production cuts? (no)• Gold:
$1,226.75 : -4% y/y
SPONSORED BY IN ASSOCIATION WITHAN EVENT FROM
UK MONETARY POLICY• Rates, QE unchanged at 3 Nov meeting• BoE forecasts inflation above 2% in 2017
- will ignore; says temporary• Cut interest rates to 0.25% after EU ref• Boosted QE by £70bn; TOTAL £445bn
SPONSORED BY IN ASSOCIATION WITHAN EVENT FROM
GLOBAL MONETARYEurozone:• Negative rates in Eurozone since Mar ‘16• + €80bn QE per monthUSA:• Rose 0.25% in Dec 15, first rise since ‘06• WATCH meeting on 13-14 Dec
SPONSORED BY IN ASSOCIATION WITHAN EVENT FROM
GLOBAL GROWTHUK stronger than Europe; USA surging• USA:
+0.7% q/q• UK: +0.5%
q/q• Eurozone: +0.3%
q/q• France: +0.2%
q/qNB Slow and steady recovery in Eurozone
SPONSORED BY IN ASSOCIATION WITHAN EVENT FROM
GLOBAL INFLATIONPrices falling in six European nations …… wrong type of inflation• UK: +0.9%
(Oct 16)• USA:
+0.8% (Sept 16)• Germany: +0.7% (Oct
16)• Bulgaria (+Cyprus): -0.1% (Oct 16)
SPONSORED BY IN ASSOCIATION WITHAN EVENT FROM
Stephen IsherwoodChief Executive, AGR
HOW TO GET THE BEST OUT OF THE CLASS OF 2017
SPONSORED BY IN ASSOCIATION WITHAN EVENT FROM
We spend at least £82 million hiring graduates
£3.4k per hire
ConstructionRetail
Engineering or industrialPublic Sector
IT & TelecommunicationsAccountancy or professional services
Banking or financial servicesEnergy, water or utility company
FMCGLaw
Overall excl. Law firms
£764£800£1,219£1,258
£1,617£1,793£1,810
£2,393£2,813
£5,195£1,722
£532£1,777£812
£2,001£543
£1,070£2,833
£2,836£1,976
£1,516£1,661
Attraction & Marketing Selection & Assessment
SPONSORED BY IN ASSOCIATION WITHAN EVENT FROM
Retail sector£920
Engineering or industrial company
£1,325
Public sector£1,364
Energy, water or utility company
£6,000
Banking or financial services
£5,158
Construction firm or consultancy
£2,817
FMCG sector£3,125
IT & Telecoms£1,538
And millions more to develop them
SPONSORED BY IN ASSOCIATION WITHAN EVENT FROM
Because there is still a skills gap
Managing up
Dealing with conflict
Negotiating/influencing
Commercial awareness
Business communication
Self-awareness
Problem-solving
Interpersonal skills
Teamwork
50%
71%
92%
79%
66%
86%
69%
88%
79%
4%
10%
11%
15%
20%
29%
63%
68%
82%
Share of graduate intakes who have this skill
Share of employers training hires on this skill
SPONSORED BY IN ASSOCIATION WITHAN EVENT FROM
SPONSORED BY IN ASSOCIATION WITHAN EVENT FROM
SPONSORED BY IN ASSOCIATION WITHAN EVENT FROM
68 applications per vacancy
SPONSORED BY IN ASSOCIATION WITHAN EVENT FROM
SPONSORED BY IN ASSOCIATION WITHAN EVENT FROM
Graeme WrightStrategy Director, Havas People
PRIDE AND PREJUDICE: SHIFTING MINDSETS IN AN AGE OF UNCERTAINTY
SPONSORED BY IN ASSOCIATION WITHAN EVENT FROM
49
SPONSORED BY IN ASSOCIATION WITHAN EVENT FROM
50
I am proud of my country
SPONSORED BY IN ASSOCIATION WITHAN EVENT FROM
51
It’s not an outwardly directed nationalism that puts one’s country above all others so much as it’s a recognition of the elements that make one’s country and culture worth celebrating—and protecting. To a large extent, it’s a patriotism steeped in the past—in history, in bygone glories, in deep-rooted traditions.
SPONSORED BY IN ASSOCIATION WITHAN EVENT FROM
52
neopatriotism
SPONSORED BY IN ASSOCIATION WITHAN EVENT FROM
53
SPONSORED BY IN ASSOCIATION WITHAN EVENT FROM
54
National identity: The new cool
SPONSORED BY IN ASSOCIATION WITHAN EVENT FROM
55
What makes you proud
SPONSORED BY IN ASSOCIATION WITHAN EVENT FROM
56
Implications - End of the great Mingle
Globally Segmentation is key
Locally celebrate your national identity
SPONSORED BY IN ASSOCIATION WITHAN EVENT FROM
57
Collaborative Democracy
SPONSORED BY IN ASSOCIATION WITHAN EVENT FROM
58
SPONSORED BY IN ASSOCIATION WITHAN EVENT FROM
59
SPONSORED BY IN ASSOCIATION WITHAN EVENT FROM
60
Implications
“Honesty and transparency are valuable currencies in an age of cynicism and suspicion. That lesson applies to politicians and brands alike.”
SPONSORED BY IN ASSOCIATION WITHAN EVENT FROM
61
CCTV and Xenophobia
“In these times of fear, what was oncea plot element in dystopian fiction isbeing seen as a plausible solution.”
SPONSORED BY IN ASSOCIATION WITHAN EVENT FROM
62
Which of these measures would you support to increase your national security?
only four countries—the US, the Netherlands, Singapore, and Laos—had agreement levels below 25 % this issue
SPONSORED BY IN ASSOCIATION WITHAN EVENT FROM
63
Implications
Brands should focus on trust and transparency & not be shy as to how they contribute to the national interest
SPONSORED BY IN ASSOCIATION WITHAN EVENT FROM
64
In pursuit of happiness
SPONSORED BY IN ASSOCIATION WITHAN EVENT FROM
65
SPONSORED BY IN ASSOCIATION WITHAN EVENT FROM
66
SPONSORED BY IN ASSOCIATION WITHAN EVENT FROM
67
SPONSORED BY IN ASSOCIATION WITHAN EVENT FROM
68
The Search for happinessWe expect the state to use our tax monies to provide for our health, our education, and our physical and economic security. And we increasingly look to businesses and brands to provide some of the important “extras” that make life better
SPONSORED BY IN ASSOCIATION WITHAN EVENT FROM
69
Implications
Link people to the right job
Celebrate success
Find the meaning in any career
Make work/life balance a given
CSR
SPONSORED BY IN ASSOCIATION WITHAN EVENT FROM
70
UK based students - Do you believe
SPONSORED BY IN ASSOCIATION WITHAN EVENT FROM
71
Do you agree a person who is not cultured will never be truly successful?
Do you feel Democracy is the best form of government
I am willing to give up some personal liberty in order to feel safer
SPONSORED BY IN ASSOCIATION WITHAN EVENT FROM
72
Three key words
TRUST TRANSPARENCY
CARE
SPONSORED BY IN ASSOCIATION WITHAN EVENT FROM
The power in any relationship resides with the person who cares less…
But power isn’t happiness, and I think that maybe happiness comes from caring more about people rather than less
SPONSORED BY IN ASSOCIATION WITHAN EVENT FROM
Toby YoungJournalist, Author & Co – founder of the West London Free School
THE MILLENNIALS OF 2017
SPONSORED BY IN ASSOCIATION WITHAN EVENT FROM
Thank you