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Scenario Planning for Climate Change
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SCENARIO PLANNING FOR CLIMATE CHANGE
Littlemarsh Climate Stakeholders Meeting
Vandana Rao, PhD., Massachusetts Executive Office of Energy and Environmental Affairs
E. Heidi Ricci, Mass Audubon - Shaping the Future of Your Community Program
Julie Conroy AICP, Metropolitan Area Planning Council
Introduction/Impacts
Vandana Rao, PhD., Massachusetts Executive Office of Energy and Environmental Affairs
Climate change is the greatest environmental challenge of this generation, with potentially profound effects on
the economy, public health, water resources, infrastructure, coastal resources, energy demand,
natural features, and recreation
HUMAN INFLUENCE ON CLIMATE CHANGE IS CLEAR!
It is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-
20th century!- IPCC-WG1, 2013
Change in Average Surface Temperature
Draft National Climate Assessment Northeast
Heat waves, coastal flooding due to SLR, and river flooding due to more extreme precipitation events will challenge to the region’s environmental, social, and economic systems.
Infrastructure will be increasingly compromised by sea level rise and coastal flooding, and intense precipitation events.
Agriculture and ecosystems will be increasingly stressed by climate-related hazards, including higher temperatures, sea level rise and coastal flooding, and more extreme precipitation events.
MassachusettsObserved Annual Average
Temperature
Source: Draft National Climate Assessment
Flooding
Source: U.S. Global Change Research Program Source: When It Rains It Pours, Envi. America, 2012
Increased Precipitatio
n
Source: Stephen Mabee
Photo by J. Kopera
Transportation Impacts
Sea Level Rise
Development Damage
Infrastructure
Heat-related Illness
Source: Chartered Institute of Environmental Health
Heat
Source: Birmingham News
Source: Boston Housing Authority
Loss of Development Buffer
Adaptation
Source: Penney, 2008
ADAPTATION means increasing resiliency and
reducing vulnerability of our natural and built
systems, and better preparing our response
capabilities
Key Concepts
KEY SECTORS Natural Resources and Habitat Human Health and Welfare Key Infrastructure Local Economy Government Land Use and Planning Coastal Zone and Oceans
Need to Think of - PLANNING & LAND USE!
New Development Existing Development Through long-term Planning, Regulation
& Assistance
What is MA Doing?
• GWSA Implementation – Mitigation & Adaptation Subcommittees
• EEA Adaptation Subcommittee• Agency representation from DCR, DEP, DFG, DAR, DOER,
MassDOT (MBTA, Highways, MassPort), DPU, CZM, MassGIS• Federal Partners: USGS, EPA• Regional Partners: MAPC, NEIWPCC• Other: TNC, CLF, Mass Audubon, UMass Boston, UNH, UMass
Amherst
• EEA Workplan• Update on the latest science• Develop climate change scenarios• Incorporate review of climate change effects into MEPA• Develop a Data and Information Tools Workshops• Prioritize strategies to protect infrastructure & human life
• Cross Agency Plan
Natural Resource Protection
E. Heidi Ricci, Mass Audubon - Shaping the Future of Your Community Program
[email protected]/shapingthefuture
Protect and Restore Nature’s Defenses
• Floodplains, wetlands, stream corridors, upland buffers
• Natural landscapes absorb rainfall during storm events, decreasing flooding, and filter the air and water.
• Compact development and land conservation keeps forested and natural (carbon absorbing) lands intact
• Trees provide shade, reduce heat islands • Priority Protection Areas
• Priority Development Areas
Protect Floodplains and Upland Buffers
Rivers erode and deposit.Give them room to move!
Scour on the outside of meander bends
Deposition on inside of bends
Source: Carrie Banks, MA Division of Ecological Restoration
Keep Development Out of Floodplains
Protect Built Environment AND Natural Systems
Case Study: Walker Brook, Becket 10/06/05
Source: Carrie Banks, MA Division of Ecological Restoration
Intense Precipitation
6/30/2011
Culverts Washed-out & Replaced W/ Same (Undersized)!
Post Irene
Replacement Culverts
10 years
10 years
10 years
10 years
10 +
years
Estimate for Stream Crossing Span:
Cost of Two Replacements in 6 years:
$130k
$300-400k
Estimated Crossing Lifespan and Costs
10
years
Bronson Brook During and Post Irene
Source: MA Fish & Game Div. of Ecological Restoration
Wetland Restoration & Dam Removal
Natural Buffers:Green Infrastructure
Source: Green Infrastructure Center
Green Infrastructure
Source: City of Portland, Environmental Services
Regulation/Zoning
Julie Conroy, AICP,- Metropolitan Area Planning Council
Local Codes & Regulations
Do They Discourage or Promote LID? Do they Agree/Conflict with Each Other?
Wetland RegulationsStormwater RegulationsZoning Bylaw and Site Plan ReviewSubdivision Rules and Regulations
EPA’s Water Quality Scorecard: http://www.epa.gov/smartgrowth/pdf/
2009_1208_wq_scorecard.pdf
Wetlands
Resources:• http://www.co.lancaster.pa.us/toolbox/
• http://www.town.duxbury.ma.us/public_documents/DuxburyMA_Conservation
LID / GI/ Stormwater Bylaws
Credits for use of LID/GI General Permit for Certain ActivitiesEngineering Review FeesStormwater Drainage Fee / Utility & Enterprise Fund
Zoning/Site Plan Review
Relax Parking RequirementsUtilize Right-of-Way & Reduce
SetbacksPermit use of Open Drainage
Systems Credits for On-site Retention,
Infiltration, Evapo-transpiration
Incentives:• Fee Discount• Development Incentives • Rebates & Installation
Financing • Awards & Recognition
Programs
Zoning in High Hazard Areas
Natural Resource Protection Zoning
Single Family: Open Space Reserved = 0 Cluster: OSR 30%
Conservation: OSR 50% NRPZ: OSR 80%
What Would NRPZ Look Like? 100 Acre Wooded, Pre-Dvlp.
2-Acre Zoning, Conventional (34 Lots, No Protection)
NRPZ (14 lots, 75% Protect.)
Resources:http://www.co.lancaster.pa.us/toolbox/
Yes It Can Be Done!
Receiving area = lot w/in
Residential A or B – w/ municipal
water& sewer
Transfer of Development Rights
Rolling Easements
Source: Georgetown Law; Harrison Inst. For Public Law
Retreat/By-Outs
Source: flicr user swirlspace
Ocean Beach, San Francisco Planned Retreat:http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=OixVjHrcWM8
$ Federal Emergency Management Agency
$ Presidential Declaration
$ Local Flood Control(e.g. King County Flood
Control District: http://www.kingcounty.gov/environment/waterandland/flooding/buyou
t.aspx)
What are MA Communities Doing?
• Chatham – zoning bylaw prohibits new residential units in mapped floodplains - designates ‘conservancy districts’ for land in 100-year floodplain; designates uses as permitted, needing special permit or are altogether prohibited
• Cape Cod Commission – model floodplain district bylaw prohibiting new development in V, no public infrastructure in V and A zones
• Boston – updating their hazard mitigation plan, looking into updating wetlands ordinance - all accommodating for CC
• Cambridge – vulnerability assessment
• Reducing Storm Risk in Developed Areas w FEMA $: Quincy & Scituate help property owners elevate homes/utilities; covers 75% of cost
Town of Littlemarsh Climate Stakeholders Meeting
October 17, 2013
Town Stats
Roles
Planning Board Conservation Commission Board of Selectmen Emergency Management Department of Public Works Business Community Residents
Options for the Committee to Consider
Prioritize and Improve Existing Infrastructure (Culverts, dams, Water supply and Treatment)
Wetlands/Floodplain Bylaws/Ordinances
GI/LID/Stormwater Regulations
Zoning: NRPZ, TDR, Rolling Easements
Retreat and Voluntary Buy-outs
Meeting Outcomes
1. Decide Which Adaptation Measures to Focus on
2. Prioritize Short-Term and Long-Term Actions
3. Establish Action Items for Committee
Questions?
Vandana Rao, MA EEA617-626-1248 [email protected]
Heidi Ricci, MassAudubon781-259-2172 [email protected]
Julie Conroy, [email protected]
THANK YOU!
