THE WESTERN SPACE POLICIES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INTERNATIONAL FACTORS:

MUTUALITY OF RUSSIA’S CASEValdis Balcers,

Doctorant of Political Sciences,University of Latvia

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Influencing factors on public policy

Governmental policy Globalization Influencing environment

Internal factors External factors

International relations

Interdependence of policies in different states

16.10.2015Space Policy. Valdis Balcers,

University of Latvia

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Space policy as a specific kind of public policy

The Western democracies: ESA for the EU NASA for the US …

Out of the West: Roscosmos for Russia Chinese Space Agency …

16.10.2015Space Policy. Valdis Balcers,

University of Latvia

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Relations between the West and Russia

Predictability of the relations before 2008 Uncertainty starts with Russo – Georgian

war (2008) Deterioration through the occupation of the

Crimea and swampy war in Eastern Ukraine

The economic and political sanctions against Russia

16.10.2015Space Policy. Valdis Balcers,

University of Latvia

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The purpose of the research To find out

the extent to which the space policies of the West and Russia depend on each other (emphasis on Russia’s dependence)

the features and differences of the space industries governance in Russia from the West > a sensitivity of the system to foreign dependency

quantitative indicators which determine the mutual dependence (emphasis on Russia’s dependence)

a secondary impact on the Western space policy due to deterioration of relations with Russia

16.10.2015Space Policy. Valdis Balcers,

University of Latvia

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Theory A theory of economic and political interdependence: Keohane, R., and Nye, J. (1989)

Power and Interdependence. Glenview, Illinois: Scott, Foresman & Company

Crescenzi Mark J.C. (2002) Economic Interdependence and Conflict in World Politics. University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill. Pp 272

16.10.2015Space Policy. Valdis Balcers,

University of Latvia

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Methodology (Quantitative) Correlation analysis of time series

with few samples: Courgeau, D. (2012) Probability and Social Science. NY: Springer

(Qualitative) Content analysis: Krippendorff, K. H. (2004) Content Analysis. An Introduction to Its Methodology. Thousand Oaks: SAGE Publication

(Qualitative) Scenario building: Lindgren, M., and Bandhold, H. (2003). Scenario Planning: The Link Between Future and Strategy. NY: Palgrave MacMillan

16.10.2015Space Policy. Valdis Balcers,

University of Latvia

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Roscosmos budget growth: is there a lag against NASA’s one? Growth of Civil Space Budget correlation between

Roscosmos (RUS), ESA and NASA by lag in 2010-2015 as difference between actual and corresponding critical values of correlation coefficient

16.10.2015Space Policy. Valdis Balcers,

University of Latvia

0,004 0,062

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General consequences of quantitative analysis

«Technological transfer» from the West to Russia The character of nowadays cooperation between the West and Russia

in space

The Russian dependence on the West is a fact Steadiness to the Western sanctions:

Import substitution Import of technology from BRICS countries Angara and Vostochny are finished

The cooperation fact with the West on the use of outer space is not vital for Russia

16.10.2015Space Policy. Valdis Balcers,

University of Latvia

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Possible scenarios: costs for the Western space policies

The matrix of outcomes for relations between the West and Russia, and for the Western space policies, depending on the scenario (on the left side). On the right side – decoding of colour designation in the matrix in respect of the Western space policies

16.10.2015Space Policy. Valdis Balcers,

University of Latvia

Tightening W/o changes Easing

Tightening Esacalation Esacalation Uncertaintydownward cooperation -

additional costs

W/o changes

Deadlock Deadlock Uncertaintyminimal cooperation -

possible additional costs

Easing Detente Detente Detentecooperation restored -

no additional costs

Russian reaction

The Western action no cooperation in long term - significant additional costs

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Sources of disappointment for the West

A high degree of self-sufficiency of the Kremlin regime

A certain economic dependence of the EU on Russia An excessive bureaucratization and inability of EU’s

public policy to adopt independently a flexible decisions

Choose the cheaper imported products instead of investments into promising home-grown solutions

16.10.2015Space Policy. Valdis Balcers,

University of Latvia

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Conclusions of the research The Russian space policy evinces greater autonomy than

the Western ones Difference of Russian space policy and industry from the

Western one: Corruption Embezzlement of public funds Strictly centralized management scheme Civil program is connected with the military; military command

The existence of similarity in nature of Roscosmos funding (at lag of 2 years) to NASA funding

Additional costs for West due to their dependence on supplies from Russia in 67 % of possible scenarios of development of their relations

16.10.2015Space Policy. Valdis Balcers,

University of Latvia

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Thank you for your attention!

Comments, questions

16.10.2015Space Policy. Valdis Balcers,

University of Latvia