MACE 2016 Advocacy Conference: David Owen presentation

BALLOT MEASURESMADE FUN & EASY

DAVID OWEN, PRESIDENT SOUTH DAKOTA CHAMBER OF COMMERCE

& INDUSTRY

Ballot Measures Are Like AcnePainful, Ugly, Annoying – Treatable

24 states do not have initiative or referendum or amendments

26 states provide for initiative or referendum 14 states allow placement of initiatives on the ballot 23 states allow referral of a law 16 states allow placement of a constitutional

amendment on the ballot 11 states have South Dakota’s access to the ballot

with initiatives, referred laws plus amendments

MACE StatesMinnesota – Not permittedIowa – Not permittedWisconsin – Not permitted (voted down in

1914)Nebraska –

Initiated Measure = 7% of registered voters Initiated Amendment = 10% of registered voters Referred Law = 5% of registered voters

(law is in effect until the vote) Referred Law = 10% of registered voters

(law is suspended until the vote)

MACE States

North Dakota – Initiated Measure or Referred Law = 2 percent of the

total population Initiated Amendment = 4 percent of the total

population

South Dakota Initiated Measure – 5% number voted Governor Initiated Amendment – 10% voted Governor Referred Law – 5% voted for Governor –

law suspended

Nationwide157 propositions on November ballots (165/yr)

Up from 144 in 2014 Max was 204 in 2006 (236/2000 yr)

Most active states: California 17 Alabama 14 South Dakota 10 Washington 9

Issues: Marijuana; minimum wage; gambling; capital punishment; animals; taxes

Source – I and R Institute

Other Issues Settled by Ballot

Bond issues – build infrastructure

School levies – opt-outs, elective levies

Local plebiscites – elected leaders look for a way out

Once on the Ballot

When in times of trouble and doubt, run in circles – scream and shout.

First – keeping things off the ballot Rarely works – massively expensive

What does it really do?Does you Chamber care?Who else cares – first level coalitionGet together – see above

The Normal Flow of Things

Oh, hell you can beat that thing

Work your hinny off

Oh, hell that never had a chance.

Do Your Research – Know Everything

Research the history of the issueWhite papers – executive summaries

This is NOT campaign material Potential political themes issues and ideas Outreach to the afflicted and addictedCoalition building and fundraisingAttorney General – Opinion – didn’t workWho are decision makerssteering committee vs. campaign committee

Polling – Polling - PollingHire a political polling firm

Do a thorough poll: Where are voters now Message development

Key messages that voters believe/ find convincing How strong is opposition message ID key demographics, geography, key targets

Mantra Memo

IM-23 – It’s About Fees

The Language:

Section 1: Notwithstanding any other provisions of law, an organization, corporate or nonprofit, has the right to charge a fee for any service provided by the organization.

Section 2: The effective date of this Act is July 1, 2017.

Only applied to union contracts and non-members; designed to gut right to work

Project #16452

South Dakota IM 23 Survey

Glen [email protected]

Key findings from a statewide survey of 500 registered voters, with 200 cell phone interviews,

in South Dakota, June 24-28, 2016.

Political Environment

Right Direc-tion65%

Wrong Track28%

No Opinion5%

Refused2%

“Would you say that things in South Dakota are going in the right direction, or have they pretty seriously gotten off on the wrong track?”

Overall By Party

Voters are pleased with the direction of the Mount Rushmore State.

Base GOP(27%)

Soft GOP(19%)

Lean/Ind(20%)

Soft Dem(16%)

Base Dem(16%)

81%

70%60%

67%

38%

17%26% 26% 25%

55%

Right Direction Wrong Track

+64% +34% -17%+44% +42%

Name ID& Images

82%

91%

74%

51%46%

92%

50%

32%

46%

24%20%

66%

7%

34%

4% 3% 4%

11%

Heard Of Favorable Unfavorable

Labor Unions are well known and are split on perception.

Name ID & Images

Total Yes(27%)

Undecided(18%)

Total No(55%)

Move to Yes(24%)

Move to No(49%)

87%

70%

83%88%

83%

58%

31%

52%58%

52%

5% 7% 8%5% 7%


There is little difference in the Chamber’s image between yes and no voters.

South Dakota Chamber of Commerce Name ID & Images by Initial Ballot

Total Yes(27%)

Undecided(18%)

Total No(55%)

Move to Yes(24%)

Move to No(49%)

93%

84%

93% 93% 93%

75%

54%

66%

75%

66%

5%10%

14%

4%12%


The local Chamber of Commerce has high name ID and favorables.

“Your local Chamber of Commerce” Name ID & Images by Initial Ballot

South Dakota’s Right to Work

Law

Base GOP(27%)

Soft GOP(19%)

Lean/Ind(20%)

Soft Dem(16%)

Base Dem(16%)

56%

46%

36%

24% 23%

8%13%

22% 19%

36%

Total Favor Total Oppose

Strongly Favor22%

Somewhat Favor17%

Somewhat Oppose

8%Strongly Oppose

10%

Don't Know

Enough42%

Refused1%

“Do you favor or oppose South Dakota’s Right to Work law, or do you not know enough about it to have an opinion?”

Over 40% of voters do not know what South Dakota’s Right to Work law is.

+48% +33% +14% +5% -13%

By PartyOverall:

Total Favor: 39%Total Oppose:

18%

Men Age 18-44(23%)

Men Age 45+(25%)

Women Age 18-44(19%)

Women Age 45+(33%)

Age 65+(20%)

46%52%

18%

36%

48%

16%22%

14%19% 17%


Men and seniors clearly favor the Right to Work law, while younger women are more hesitant.

By Gender/Age + Seniors+4%+30% +30% +17% +31%

Base GOP(27%)

Soft GOP(19%)

Lean/Ind(20%)

Soft Dem(16%)

Base Dem(16%)

88%80%

68%75%

52%

9%14%

23% 20%

42%


Strongly Favor42%

Somewhat Favor32%

Somewhat Oppose

9%

Strongly Oppose

11%

Don't Know Enough4%

Refused1%

“Thinking further about that law, a Right to Work law guarantees that no person can be required, as a condition of employment, to join or not to join a labor union, and nor can they be required to pay dues or any other fee to a labor

union. Now that you have heard a brief description, do you favor or oppose South Dakota’s Right to Work law?”

Three-quarters of voters favor this description and intensity is high. Only base Dems are divided.

+79% +66% +45% +55% +10%

By PartyOverall:

Total Favor: 75%*Total Oppose:

20%

*Denotes Rounding

Ballot Tests

Yes on Initiated Measure 236%

No on Initiated Measure 23

8%

Undecided46%

Don't Know what Initiated Measure 23 is

32%

Never Heard of Initiated Measure 23

7%

Refused1%

“If the November election were being held today, would you vote yes on Initiated Measure Twenty-Three, No on Initiated Measure Twenty-Three, or are you undecided?”

A large majority of voters either don’t know what Initiated Measure 23 is or they are undecided on how to vote.

Definitely Yes, For7%

Probably Yes, For

20%

Probably No,

Against29%

Definitely No,

Against26%

Undecided18%

“Now I would like to read you the attorney general’s explanation of Initiated Measure Twenty-Three, which will appear on the ballot in November in South Dakota, and please tell me if you would vote yes, for, or no, against, it. The title is “an initiated measure to give certain organizations the right to charge fees.” Here is the attorney general’s explanation: The measure gives corporate organizations and non-profit organizations the right to charge a fee for any service provided.

This measure takes effect on July 1, 2017. Would you vote yes, for, or no, against, Initiated Measure Twenty-Three?”

After hearing the description, a majority of voters vote no.

Overall:Total Yes: 27%Total No: 55%

Base GOP(27%)

Soft GOP(19%)

Lean/Ind(20%)

Soft Dem(16%)

Base Dem(16%)

34%

27% 26% 25%

19%

50%55% 56%

59% 58%

Total Yes, For Total No, Against

Opposition to Initiated Measure 23 crosses party lines.

By Party

-30%-16% -28% -34% -39%

Black Hills (18%) James River (29%)

Total Yes, For 24%

Total No, Against 59%

Total Yes, For 29%


Total Yes, For 24%


Total Yes, For 27%


Total Yes, For 28%


All regions oppose IM 23. Support does not eclipse 30% in any region of the state.

By Region

West River (12%) Northeast (13%) Sioux Falls (28%)

Message Testing

These messages are very convincing reasons to oppose Initiated Measure 23.

Series1 54%16%

49%14%

48%12%

47%17%

45%15%

44%12%

77%22%*

77%22%*

80%19%*

74%*25%

77%23%

77%21%

Very Convincing Total Convincing Not At All Convincing Total Not Convincing

Ranked by % Very Convincing

Having a job in South Dakota has never been dependent on belonging to a labor organization or having to pay money to a union.

That should not be changed.

South Dakota’s Right to Work law is in the Bill of Rights of the state Constitution. That right to work should not be undermined by

unions.

This will force hard-working South Dakotans, including teachers, police, firefighters, nurses, linemen, and city and state workers, to

pay fees to unions even if they do not want to.^

“I would like to read you a number of different reasons people have given for OPPOSING Initiated Measure 23. For each one I read you, I would like you to tell me how convincing that statement is as a reason to OPPOSE Initiated Measure 23

very convincing, somewhat convincing, not too convincing, or not at all convincing.”

This is about forcing workers in South Dakota to pay fees to labor unions even if the workers do not want to be union members.

This will force hard-working South Dakotans, including police, firefighters, nurses, linemen, and city and state workers, to pay

fees to unions even if they do not want to.^^

*Denotes Rounding. ^Split Sample N= 248. ^^Split Sample N= 252

This initiated measure is so vaguely worded that people do not know what it actually does.

All these messages resonate with voters to oppose the measure.

Series1 39%14%

38%17%

36%15%

35%18%

28%17%

23%16%

73%*27%

70%29%

71%28%*

68%30%

65%32%

65%33%



The language of Initiated Measure 23 is so unclear that there will be multiple lawsuits about it, costing the state millions of dollars in

legal fees.

This will allow all types of organizations to force people to pay for services they do not even want from not just unions, but also

businesses and non-profit organizations.

This would allow any organization to bill citizens or customers for services provided whether the people agreed to those services or

not.

“I would like to read you a number of different reasons people have given for OPPOSING Initiated Measure 23. For each one I read you, I would like you to tell me how convincing that statement is as a reason to OPPOSE Initiated Measure 23

very convincing, somewhat convincing, not too convincing, or not at all convincing.”

Based on the wording of the initiated measure, any group or organization that chooses to bill people for services provided,

whether it is by a union for a non-member or an organization for citizens, could charge an unlimited amount for the fee.

Unions claim non-union members benefit from pension services and health care plans, but those services are paid for by the

company, not the union.

*Denotes Rounding

There is no law that requires unions to bargain on behalf of non-members. Unions do that so they can get better contracts for their

employees.

Top Messages Opposing

Independent(20%)

Having a job in South Dakota has never been dependent on belonging to a labor organization or having to pay money to a union. That should not be changed.

47%

This will force hard-working South Dakotans, including teachers, police, firefighters, nurses, linemen, and city and state workers, to pay fees to unions even if they do not want to.

46%

This initiated measure is so vaguely worded that people do not know what it actually does. 46%

South Dakota’s Right to Work law is in the Bill of Rights of the state Constitution. That right to work should not be undermined by unions.

45%

This is about forcing workers in South Dakota to pay fees to labor unions even if the workers do not want to be union members. 45%

Total GOP(46%)


63%


58%


55%


54%

This will force hard-working South Dakotans, including police, firefighters, nurses, linemen, and city and state workers, to pay fees to unions even if they do not want to.

52%

Ranked by % VERY Convincing

Top Messages Opposing

Sioux Falls DMA(72%)


54%


47%


46%


45%


Total Dem(32%)


44%

This will force hard-working South Dakotans, including police, firefighters, nurses, linemen, and city and state workers, to pay fees to unions even if they do not want to.

42%



39%


38%

Ranked by % VERY Convincing

None of these messages are very convincing to support the measure.

Series1 17%43%

14%38%

14%35%

14%36%

13%37%

38%*61%*

43%56%*

41%*58%*

41%*58%

43%56%*



This would close a loophole in South Dakota law that lets some people get free services without paying their fair share.

Because of freeloaders who get free services without paying for them, South Dakota’s wages and benefits lag behind other

states. This would help strengthen South Dakota’s economy.

The fact that unions have to negotiate on behalf of people who do not pay dues is called the slacker’s loophole. It is time

to close that loophole and make slackers pay their fair share.

“I would like to read you a number of different reasons people have given for SUPPORTING Initiated Measure 23. For each one I read you, I would like you to tell me how convincing that statement is as a reason to SUPPORT Initiated

Measure 23 very convincing, somewhat convincing, not too convincing, or not at all convincing.”

Non-union members get to use benefits like pension services and the health care plan.

Other states like Minnesota have these fair share laws and it works fine there. Passing this will help South Dakota workers

earn more.

*Denotes Rounding

These supporter messages do not work with voters.

Series1 13%

38%

13%

38%

11%

39%

10%

33%

41%

57%

39%

60%*

37%*

61%

40%

58%*



This would end the friction in workplaces created by some people getting benefits that other people are paying for.

This is not a union or non-union issue. It is a simple matter of fairness.

“I would like to read you a number of different reasons people have given for SUPPORTING Initiated Measure 23. For each one I read you, I would like you to tell me how convincing that statement is as a reason to SUPPORT Initiated

Measure 23 very convincing, somewhat convincing, not too convincing, or not at all convincing.”

This will benefit all workers and is opposed by business owners.

All this does is guarantee the rights of all organizations to collect fees for the services that they provide.

*Denotes Rounding


Some-what Favor17%

Probably No,

Against29%

Definitely No,

Against26%

Undecided18%

Overall:Total Yes, For: 27%Total No, Against:

55%

Initial Descriptive Informed


Probably Yes, For

14%

Probably No,

Against26%

Definitely No,

Against48%

Undecided5%

Refused1%

Overall:Total Yes, Favor: 20%Total No, Against:

74%

Yes, For14%

79% No, Against

“Now that you have heard some more information, I would like to again read you the attorney general’s explanation of Initiated Measure Twenty-Three, and please tell me if you would vote yes, for, or no, against, it. The title is “an initiated measure to give certain organizations

the right to charge fees.” Here is the attorney general’s explanation: The measure gives corporate organizations and non-profit organizations the right to charge a fee for any service provided. This measure takes effect on July 1, 2017.”

About three-quarters of voters would vote no, against the measure on the informed ballot.

The Bottom Line

THE BOTTOM LINEWell, we certainly better win this one. The biggest challenge we face is not convincing people to vote no on Initiated Measure 23, it’s telling them about IM 23. That is enough to get them to vote no in overwhelming numbers.

This is not about who supports and who opposes (although union support is pretty damning), but much more about what is it going to do. It’s not just about protecting the Right to Work law, as many voters do not know what that is. The most encouraging part of the survey is that voters, upon hearing the explanation of IM 23, instinctively turn it down. Opposition crosses party, geographic, gender, age, ideological, education, and income lines. Even Trump and Clinton voters unite in their opposition.

It’s noteworthy, but not worrisome, that the groups most likely to support it (GOP men, men with college degrees, very conservative voters, and upper income voters) are groups we think are most likely to end up strongly voting no. (Keep in mind, their “high” level of support still means only mid-30% vote “yes”). These voters are reacting to the idea that corporations should be able to charge fees for services (reasonable capitalist point of view). As we hammer the issue, those groups swing even further to no.

Supporters of IM 23 say businesses and non-profits have the right to charge fees. Some opponents believe non-profits shouldn’t charge fees, while others say they don’t know enough and believe it is unnecessary.

THE BOTTOM LINEOnce we give a descriptive ballot, the already low level of support plunges to the mid-teens, with opposition rising near 80%. Voters who move the most to the no side tend to be well-educated Republicans. Voters who opt for no after the descriptive ballot say that dues should not be charged to non-members, and that unions are bad.

The union versus business message test works out so well for us that only 30% of union households opt for the union side.

The supporter messages fall flat – the highest “very convincing” argument reaches just 17%, and strong majorities reject every supporter message as not convincing. I have never seen that before in my 31 years of polling.

We have a lot of strong messages to use against IM 23, including that it would force hard-working South Dakotans to pay fees to unions even if they don’t want to. The messages that work best are those that directly address right to work or unions.

The informed ballot shows that IM 23 is a house of straw ready to be blown over in the wind. Let’s huff and puff and blow their house down.

Materials

Brochures

Cards

Buttons

Logo

Yard Signs/Large Signs

Advertising

TV – Gross Rating Points Production, placement,

pre-paid, commissions Local news High ratings

Newspaper

Radio targeted

Social Media 20% of total budget Very targeted

Yard Signs

Bill Board

Mailing Cards Targeted - demographics

Robo Calls

No on 23 ad #1

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fpBfa3akQ-E&feature=youtu.be





Other video

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wzjRwNUQDRU&feature=em-share_video_user





Live Action Earned Media

Stay on Message At all costs Over and over and over

againUse people that are calm

and good under pressure Speaker training Service clubs presentations

Media releases Newsworthy

Guest Editorials Exclusive/ mailed to

severalLetters to the editor

No, they don’t just get sentEditorial Board Visits

Seeking endorsements Statewide – take a local

Staged Events/Rallies Picket line

Debates, Appearances – Earned Media

GOTV – Get Out the Vote

Buy every kind of list Registered voters – by party – early voters

Systems and consultants Systematic contact and filing YOUR voters Contact them – target for mailings

Door to Door Keeping track of who said what

Your Own Internal Work

Email messages to members

Send members flyers

Encourage member to talk to their employees

All coalition members should do the same

Ballot Measures Have a date certain ending

Reasons to be active in ballot measures How policy is determined – a growing trend Enhance political stature of the Chamber

Become a player – even in a loss This is leadership in a modern world Shows you are active and engaged Earned media exposure

Questions???

Presentations & Public Speaking

MACE 2016 Advocacy Conference: David Owen presentation