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An Integrated Probabilistic Risk Assessment for Turkey
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An Integrated Probabilistic Risk Assessment for Turkey
Sevgi Özcebe1, Vitor Silva2, Helen Crowley3, Christopher Burton4
IUSS-UME School, Pavia, ItalyUniversity of Aveiro, Aveiro, PortugalEUCENTRE, Pavia, ItalyGEM Foundation, Pavia, Italy
Integrated Seismic Risk
Physical Seismic RiskProbability of damage and loss to structures
Socio-Economic VulnerabilityVulnerability of society and economy
Ankara
İzmir
İstanbul
Van
What is needed to calculate the physical risk?
Probability of ground shaking
Vulnerability of exposure elements
Elements at risk
How the hazard is calculated in OpenQuake
Ground Motion Prediction Equations
Weight
Akkar & Çağnan (2010) 0.35
Akkar et al. (2014) 0.65
SHARE Seismic Source Model
Weight
Area Source Model 0.5Fault Source and
Background Model 0.2
Smoothed Seismicity 0.3
Seismic Hazard:Classical Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment
Seismic source model Ground motion model
How the hazard is calculated in OpenQuake
Logic Tree Processor
Seismic Hazard Model
Source model logic tree Ground motion logic tree
Source model
Earthquake Rupture Forecast Calculator
Earthquake Rupture Forecast
Classical Hazard Curve Calculator
Ground Motion Prediction Equation
Hazard Curves and Maps
The resulting seismic hazard
Mean seismic hazard in Peak Ground Acceleration (g) for rock, for a 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years
0.10 g
0.61 g
İstanbul
Ankara
Vanİzmir
East Anatolian
Fault
North Anatolian Fault
To include site effects, Vs30 proxies by Wald and Allen, 2007 is allocated
Capturing building types in Turkey
2000 Building Census,Turkish Statistical Institute
Building Density
(unit/km2)
High
Low
Frame Construction Bearing Wall/Masonry Construction
Reinforced concrete frame with infill walls
Brick Hollow concrete blocks
StoneAdobe Wood Frame Steel Frame Wood
Distribution of reinforced concrete and masonry residential buildings
Reinforced Concrete Frame
with Infill Walls
Low RiseMid Rise
High RiseBrick and Hollow
Concrete Block Masonry
Low Rise
Mid RiseStone and Adobe
Masonry
Low RiseMid Rise
İstanbul
Vanİzmir
Relating shaking intensity to building damage:Fragility curves for reinforced concrete structures
(Erberik , 2008)
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 1000
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
Peak Ground Velocity (cm/s)
Mid Rise
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 1000
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
Peak Ground Velocity (cm/s)
Prob
abilit
y of
exc
eeda
nce
Low Rise
Relating shaking intensity to building damage:Fragility curves for masonry structures
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 10
0.10.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
Peak Ground Acceleration (g)
Low-RiseMid-Rise
Brick and Hollow Concrete Block MasonryUrban Type
Adobe and Stone MasonryRural Type
(Erberik , 2008)
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 10
0.1
0.20.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
Peak Ground Acceleration (g)
Prob
abilit
y of
exc
eeda
nce
Transforming damage into economic loss
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 10
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
Brick and Concrete Block Ma-sonry- Low RiseStone and Adobe Ma-sonry- Low RiseBrick and Concrete Block Ma-sonry- Mid Rise
Peak Ground Acceleration (g)Rep
air
Cost
/ R
epla
cem
ent
Cost
Vulnerability CurvesDamage-to-Loss Functions
Slight Moderate Collapse0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2 KOERI (2003)
Bal et al. (2007)
Rep
air
Cost
/ R
epla
cem
ent
Cost
Damage states
Fragility Curves
How the risk is calculated in OpenQuake
0 0.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.9 10
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
Loss
Rat
io (
%)
Hazard Model Exposure Model Physical Vulnerability Model
Loss MapsLoss CurvesEconomic loss ($)
Prob
abili
ty o
f ex
ceed
ance
in 5
0 ye
ars
Classical Probabilistic Hazard Assessment Based-Risk Calculator
How this study compares the others
Average annualized loss ratio
Loss / Value
İstanbul
Vanİzmir
Ankara
high
Average annualized economic loss
Loss ($)
İstanbul
Vanİzmir
Ankara
high
This Study(Preliminary)
AIR RMS Demircioglu (2010)
Average Annualized Loss Ratio 0.13 % 0.14% 0.09% 0.12%
What is needed to measure the socio-economic vulnerability?
Indicator Vulnerability
Female population
Increases
Population living in province and district centersPopulation under 4 years of age and over 65 years of age
Population densityAverage size of households
Renter householdsHouseholds not served by piped water systems
Population with a disabilityWorking-age population that is unemployed
Birth rateLabor force that is employed in service industries
Illiterate populationPopulation with high education completed DecreasesFemale labor force participation
What is needed to measure the socio-economic vulnerability?
Data Transformation: metrics as percentage, per capita, per unit
Data Standardization: Normalization, Min-max scaling, Z-scores
Multivariate Analysis:Data exploration, correlations
Transforming many indicators into a single index
Multivariate Analysis
Socio-Economic
Vulnerability Index
Uncorrelated
indicators
Aggregation of
uncorrelated indicators
Indicators
Transformed &
Standardized
İstanbul
Van
Socio-Economic Vulnerability for Turkey
Putting it all together: Integrated risk for Turkey
Physical Risk
Ankara
İzmir
İstanbul
Van
=Integrated
Risk
+ Socio-Economic Vulnerability
Zooming in
Physical Risk
Socio-Economic Vulnerability
Integrated Risk
İstanbul
Van
Except where otherwise noted, this work is licensed under: creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
Please attribute to the GEM Foundation with a link to - www.globalearthquakemodel.org