150609 country presentation3 brazil_lorildo

BRAZIL Dairy farm structure status, drivers and

perspectives Lorildo Stock - Embrapa

16th IFCN Dairy Conference 2015 - June 9th, 2015

Lorildo STOCK - Embrapa Gado de Leite (Embrapa Dairy Cattle Research Center) - June, 09, 2015

DRIVERS OF DEMAND PRODUCTION REGIONS STRUCTURAL STATUS

MILK PRICES FEED COSTS

SUM UP


Brazilian demand for dairy

More consumers

92,9 83,3 96,263,6

45,6 55,4

65,9105,5

8,8 12,9

13,322,5

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

1993 1995 2003 2011

Mil

lio

n p

eo

ple

Class A and BClass CClass D and E


Self-sufficiency in dairy

Average annual growth rate (2008–2013)

Demand for dairy products (ME) (% per year)

Per capita consumption 4,5%

Population growth 1,0%

Total dairy consumption (ME) 5,5%

Dairy net imports 1,1%

Total milk suplied 5,5%

Milk Suply (% per year)

Yield 3,2%

Number of cows 1,2%

Total milk production 4,4%


Brazilian demand for dairy

High growth of per capita consumption 2009-2013

123

130 127

131 136

139 140 144

157

163

172 172

179 185 185

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

190

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014*

2015*

kg p

er

capita




SUM UP


Brazilian dairy regions - 1990

S + SE = 70%



S + SE = 70%



S + SE = 70%



S + SE = 70%



S + SE = 70%



S + SE = 70%



S + SE = 70%



S + SE = 70%


Brazilian dairy S+SE = 70%

South increased 100% in 10 years

4,8 6,3 8,5 10,2 10,87,5

8,69,5

10,9 12,74,1

4,9

6,6

9,6

12,8

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1995 2000 2005 2010 2014*

Mil

lio

n to

ns/

year

S region

SE egion

Other

regions


Brazilian dairy: S+SE = 70%

South fast growing region

29% 32% 34% 33% 30%

46% 43% 39% 36% 35%

25% 25% 27% 31% 35%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1995 2000 2005 2010 2014*

Mil

lio

n to

ns/

year

S region

SE egion

Other

regions


Average annual grow rate 2009 - 2013

Per farm milk production

4,1%

9,4% 10,0%

5,3%4,5% 4,6% 4,5%

3,2%

3,6% 1,8%

4,5%

2,7%1,6% 1,3%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

BR PR SC RS GO SP MG

L/cowCows/farm




SUM UP


Farms > 50 cows ~ 50% milk produced

Milk production by size of farm

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

>300

200-300

100-200

70-100

50-70

30-50

10-30

<10


Farms > 50 cows ~ 50% milk produced

Milk production by size of farm

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

>300

200-300

100-200

70-100

50-70

30-50

10-30

<10


85% of total milk by top 136 thousand farms

Production structure 2013

L/cow Cows/

Cows/ /year farm

farm (1,000 t) (%) (num) (%) ´(1000) (%) (L) (num)

<30 4.926 14,4 964.514 87,6 12.654 55,1 389 13

30-70 7.624 22,3 84.785 7,7 4.470 19,5 1.705 53

70-200 9.914 28,9 39.659 3,6 3.325 14,5 2.982 84

>200 11.792 34,4 11.917 1,1 2.506 10,9 4.706 210

Total (all) 34.255 100 1.100.875 100 22.955 100 1.492 21

Class Milk Total of Total

production farms cows


15% total milk

< 30 cows

< 100 kg/farm/day

~ one million farms

Production structure 2013


1/3 milk production

Top 12 thousand farms

34%

11%

1%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Pro

du

ctio

nC

ow

sFa

rms Farms > 200 cows 12 000 farms

3 million cows

5 000 kg/cow/year


2/3 milk production


34%

11%

1%

29%

14%

4%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Pro

du

ctio

nC

ow

sFa

rms

Farms > 200 cows

Farms 70-200 cows

50 000 fasrms

6 million cows

3800 kg/cow/year


85% milk production


34%

11%

1%

29%

14%

4%

22%

19%

8%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Pro

du

ctio

nC

ow

sFa

rms

Farms > 200 cowsFarms 70-200 cowsFarms 30-70 cows

136 000 fasrms

10 million cows

3 000 kg/cow/year


More than doubled production

from farms

> 70 cows

> 400 liters/day

1996-2014

Additional production since 1996


Farms >70 cows = 2/3 milk

Larger farms producing the BR milk

54%

31%

14%

31%

30%

22%

13%

26%

29%

2%13%

34%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1996 2006 2013

>200

70-200

30-70

<30

Cows/farm


Farms >70 cows repalcing the small farms

Larger farms all additional milk 1996-2013

10 85

68

8

27

100

3

12

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1996 2006 2013

Milh

õe

s to

ne

lad

as /

an

o

>200

70-200

30-70

<30

Cows/farm




SUM UP


Following the IFCN trends

Brazilian farm gate milk prices

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

US

$/1

00 k

g

BRAZIL: producer milk priceBRAZIL: producer milk price (estimates)World farm gate milk priceWorld farm gate milk price (estimates)


Following the IFCN trends

Brazilian farm gate milk prices

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

US

$/1

00 k

g

Anual average of the distances: BR to the World pricePrice BR bellow, in R$/100 kgPrice BR above, in R$/100 kgBRAZIL: producer milk price




SUM UP


60% of the milk price (real)

Milk and concentrated feed prices

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

R$/1

00 k

g

BRAZIL: feed resal price (annual average)BRAZIL: milk-feed real price diferencde (annual average)BRAZIL: feed resal priceBRAZIL: producer real milk priceBRAZIL: producer real milk price (média 2007-14)BRAZIL: feed resal price (média 2007-14)


Price ratio >1.5

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

3,0

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Rati

o o

f p

rices:

mil

k/c

on

ceb

trate

d f

eed

BRASIL: milk/feed price ratio (annual average)BRASIL: milk/feed price ratioBRASIL: milk/feed price ratio (média 2007-14)



Price ratio >1.5


0,8

1,0

1,2

1,4

1,6

1,8

2,0

2,2

2,4

2,6

2,8

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Rati

o o

f p

rices:

mil

k/c

on

ceb

trate

d f

eed

Distânce relative to the average (média 2007-14)Bellow the averageAbove the averasgeBRASIL: milk/feed price ratio (annual average)


Seasonality for price and milk produced

102

100

95

9391

94

97

101

104

106

109 110

9192

95

100

103104

106 106105

102

99

96

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

Jan

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

Ma y Jun

Jul

Ago Se

p

Oct

No

v

Dec

Índ

ice

(mé

dia

de

cad

a an

o =

10

0)

Index of milk collected (annual averages = 100)

Index of real price for milk (annual averages = 100)


Prices to producer and UHT

9192

95

100

103104

106 106105

102

99

96

9190

92

95

101

106

109108

107

102100

99

85

90

95

100

105

110

Jan

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

Ma y Jun

Jul

Ago Se

p

Oct

No

v

Dec

Índ

ice

(mé

dia

de

cad

a an

o =

10

0)

Index of real price for milk (annual averages = 100)

Index of UHT milk price (annual averages = 100)




SUM UP


SUM UP

Brazilian milk production

Lower growing rate for milk demand

Structural changes to larger farms

Low prices in 2015

Milk production based on 136 thousand farms

Unlikely to be a competitively net exporting

Thank you [email protected]

Presentations & Public Speaking

150609 country presentation3 brazil_lorildo