Your Complimentary Cheat Sheet, 6 June 2014

The Cheat Sheet. A Publication of Indy Politics. If you like it, subscribe! Go to IndyPolitics.Org and click the “Subscribe” button.

The Final Lap

As Don Bates, Wayne Seybold and Kelly Mitchell head into the final lap of

the Treasurer’s race, here’s what we’ve been able to gather. If the delegate vote was today and everyone showed up, here’s what the results would

probably look like …

Seybold - 40-45%

Bates - 20-25% Mitchell - 10-15 %

Undecided - 25-30%

How did we get those numbers? This is the Cheat Sheet, people! We deal in gossip, rumor and blatant innuendo! You know that! We also talk to lots

of people, including those who you don’t think would never say anything to us.

Your Complimentary Cheat Sheet, 6 June 2014

The Cheat Sheet. A Publication of Indy Politics. If you like it, subscribe! Go to IndyPolitics.Org and click the “Subscribe” button.

However there are more to the numbers, we dug a little deeper and found out who was everyone’s second choice as you know this is an elimination

contest. Seybold is the second choice for about 80% of Mitchell’s supporters, Bates is about 20%. Seybold’s supporters are 90% for Mitchell

and 10% Bates. And most interesting is that the delegates who say Bates is their first pick are splitting 50-50 between Seybold and Mitchell. That tends

to run against some conventional wisdom that Bates supporters are heading in droves to Mitchell if he loses in the early rounds.

Another caveat in all this is who shows up. We found that Bates’ supporters

are a lot more passionate than Seybold’s and Mitchell so they are a lot more likely to show. Also with Mike Huckabee speaking on Friday night and the

marriage language vote on Saturday that could motivate Bates supporters. We know the “pro-family” groups have been sending out

mailers to get delegates to support the changes.

One thing to look at is the first ballot (we call it a beauty contest) and who comes in 3rd place and what do their supporters do on the next ballot which

is when the elimination begins. Do they show some loyalty or do they bolt

for one of the other two?

Also, keep an eye out for the rules committee. That’s where we hear that if something is going to change on the marriage language issue, that’s where

it’s going to happen.

Your Complimentary Cheat Sheet, 6 June 2014

The Cheat Sheet. A Publication of Indy Politics. If you like it, subscribe! Go to IndyPolitics.Org and click the “Subscribe” button.

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The Usual Disclaimer Stuff:

The Cheat Sheet is a publication of IndyPolitics.Org. This is a compilation of pure

gossip, rumor and blatant innuendo. We assume no liability if it is wrong, we only

take credit for it when it’s right!

If you’ve got something you want to share, (good, bad or ugly) send it to

abdul@indypolitics.org. We promise to take all the credit.