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Undersökning 6000 respondenter, juni 2010. Conversion Model - vad får väljarna att byta parti? Vilka budskap gillar de? Vilka kanaler väljer de? Sociala medier är inte rätt väg för de osäkra väljarna.
Citation preview
1© TNS SIFO 2010
Vilka väljare kan partierna vinna – och hur?Almedalen 6 juli 2010
2© TNS SIFO 2010 2© TNS SIFO 2010
Fältarbete: Juni 2010
Intervjade6000
Conversion Model™ focus Svenska Partierr
Styrkan i prtivalen”
Data was weighted
9 partier
3© TNS SIFO 2010
Detta är Conversion Model™
4© TNS SIFO 2010
Our Extensive Track Record …
Used on more than 10 000 studies
It's the world's most widely validated measure of Commitment
Used by 80% of the worlds most valuable brands*
In over 100 countries
On over 300 product categories
*Source:Interbrand – The World’s Most Valuable Brands Survey 2006
4© TNS SIFO 2010
5© TNS SIFO 2010
Conversion Model™
Anhängare Svag anknytning
Öppna för partiet
Otillgängliga
Sympatisörer Icke -sympatisörer
Mycket starka
anhängare
Svag anknytning
AnhängareSöker
alternativTillgäng
liga
Svagt otill
gängligaAmbivalenta
Starkt otillgäng
liga
6© TNS SIFO 2010
Explaining the Conversion Model™The segments tell us how people feel about their ‘brands’
Entrenched Strongly Committed to the brand.Unlikely to switch brands in the long-term
AverageCommitted to the brand but not as strongly. Unlikely to switch in the short-term
Shallow Uncommitted to the brand and could switch. Some are already looking at alternatives
ConvertibleUncommitted to the brand.The most likely to defect to another brand
Available Non-users of the brand who are most likely to be acquired in the short-term
Ambivalent Non-users who are as attracted to the brand as they are to other brands in the market
WeaklyUnavailable
Non-users who are not currently available to the brand, but may be available later on
StronglyUnavailable
Non-users who are not available to the brand, they strongly prefer their current brand
Users: Committed
Users:Uncommitted
Non-users: Open
Non-users:Aware Unavailable
7© TNS SIFO 2010
Partiprestationer på väljararenan
8© TNS SIFO 2010
What you need to look at to get the full story…
(To answer the questions: How secure is our support, how strong is our party?)
Note: This chart uses example dataThese ratios are then indexed against the total category to determine each party’s relative strengths and weaknesses.
13.0 9.014.0
64.0
22.0% Supporters 78.0% Non-supporters
What is our potential (to gain or lose share)?
Potential = 14/(9 + 14) = 61%
How Committed are our supporters?Commitment = 13/(13 + 9) = 59%
How attractive are we to non-supporters?Attraction = 14/(14 + 64) = 18%
9© TNS SIFO 2010
13
13
7
4
3
3
3
2
1
16
11
5
3
2
1
2
1
12
9
12
10
7
5
4
58
65
81
85
90
86
88
71
1
1
2
3
2
4
3
3
22
2 2
7
75
Partisympatisörer
Icke Sympatisörer Commitment
Index
+
AttractionIndex
+
Starkaanhängare
öppna OtillgängligaSvag anknytning
Känner ej till
PotentialIndex
+
120
97
87
65
88
Kristdemokraterna
Sverigedemokraterna
Miljöpartiet
Socialdemokraterna
Centern
Moderaterna
Folkpartiet
Vänsterpartiet
85
95
99
85
Piratpartiet
81
70
112
122
125
122
125
72
120
190
138
156
83
58
120
92
24
65
Base n= 5,958Read: For Moderaterna: 16% of the voting public is Committed, 13% is Uncommitted, 12% is Open, 58% is Unavailable and
1% has not heard of the party. Commitment is 20 points above the average, Potential is 19 points below the average and Attraction is 90 points above the average
Note: Numbers > 0.5 rounded up* Caution: Small base size
Indices with n<30 in the denominator greyed outIndices over 115 bolded for emphasis
Hälsotillstånd hos partierna
10© TNS SIFO 2010
Strength of CommitmentWhat does each party’s relationship whit its supporters look like?
44
37
30
38
38
29
26
31
25
17
12
14
6
5
11
6
4
18
22
23
23
19
22
24
25
22
30
33
34
41
41
40
45
12
23
32
Moderaterna
Vänsterpartiet
Socialdemokraterna
Miljöpartiet
Folkpartiet
Sverigedemokraterna
Piratpartiet
Kristdemokraterna
Centern
% Committed % Uncommitted
61%
45%
43%
37%
30%
Read: For Moderaterna: 17% of its supporters are Entrenched, 44% are Average, 18% are Shallow and 22% are Convertible
Note: Parties with less than 30 supporters not shownNumbers > 0.5 rounded up * Caution: Small base size
Entrenched ConvertibleAverage Shallow
49%
44%
41%
36%
39%
55%
57%
63%
70%
51%
56%
59%
64%
11© TNS SIFO 2010
States of Mind™Hur ser väljarna på partierna i sin helhet
61
45
30
17
Single-minded Passive Shared Seekers Uninvolved
Endast ett parti PASSIVADelade men mellan flera
Sökarna Ointresserade
Se till att partiet finns med I
väljarnas minne och förstärk
huvuddrivkrafter
Förstå varför konkurrenterna är
attraktiva
Vad driver missnöjet
Kna helt andra tilltal göra dessa
intresserde.
Underhåll underhåll och
försträrk hudvudsakliga
drivkrafter
Endast ett parti men bryr sig inte så
mycketVaneröstning)
Tycker mycket om flera olika
partier
Partival viktigt men tycker inte
om det nuvarande
Partivalet spealr liten roll
Base: n= 5,601Read: 45% of the voting public is Committed to a single political party (even if they support more than one) and care about the
party choice (Single-minded)Note: Numbers > 0.5 rounded up
* Caution: Small base size
12© TNS SIFO 2010
ModeraternaModerata partibytare Vilka partier utgör hot och möjligheterWhich parties represent potentialthreats and opportunities?
12© TNS SIFO 2010
13© TNS SIFO 2010
Netto för Potential & Hot för Moderaterna
Framtida förluster och vinster Moderaterna
Positive score = potential togain supporters from competitor
Negative score = net potential to lose supporters to competitor
Note:
0,6
0,0
-0,4
-0,5
-0,5
-0,7
-1,0
-1,8
Base n= 5,958 (total market)Read: Moderaterna stands to potentially gain 0.6% of the voting
public from Sverigedemokraterna overallNote: This chart does not include dual supporters
Parties ranked on potential net gain/lossPercentages are based on the total sample
Piratpartiet
Sverigedemokraterna
Miljöpartiet
Socialdemokraterna
Centern
Vänsterpartiet
Folkpartiet
Kristdemokraterna
14© TNS SIFO 2010
Vinstmöjligheter Moderaterna
Framtida vinstmöjligheterfrån andra partier
1,2
1,5
2,0
1,6
0,2
0,4
1,1
2,2
Base n= 5,958 (total market)Read: Moderaterna stands to potentially
gain 1.2% of the voting public from Sverigedemokraterna
Note: This chart does not include dual supportersParties ranked on potential net gain/lossPercentages are based on the total sample
Piratpartiet
Sverigedemokraterna
Miljöpartiet
Socialdemokraterna
Centern
Vänsterpartiet
Folkpartiet
Kristdemokraterna
15© TNS SIFO 2010
Hot mot Moderaterna
Partier som är attraktiva för moderata väljare
-0,6
-1,5
-2,4
-2,0
-0,7
-1,1
-2,0
-4,0
Base n= 5,958 (total market)Read: Moderaterna could potentially lose 0.6% of the voting public to
SverigedemokraternaNote: This chart does not include dual supporters
Parties ranked on potential net gain/lossPercentages are based on the total sample
Piratpartiet
Sverigedemokraterna
Miljöpartiet
Socialdemokraterna
Centern
Vänsterpartiet
Folkpartiet
Kristdemokraterna
16© TNS SIFO 2010
SocialdemokraternaSocialdemokratiska partibytare Vilka partier utgör hot och möjligheter
16© TNS SIFO 2010
17© TNS SIFO 2010
Netto för Potential & Hot för Moderaterna
Framtida förluster och vinster
För Socialdemokraterna
Positive score = potential togain supporters from competitor
Negative score = net potential to lose supporters to competitor
Note:
0,4
0,0
-0,4
-0,5
-0,5
-0,8
-2,3
-2,6
Base n= 5,958 (total market)Read: Socialdemokraterna stands to potentially gain 0.4% of the voting
public from Moderaterna overallNote: This chart does not include dual supporters
Parties ranked on potential net gain/lossPercentages are based on the total sample
Centern
Moderaterna
Miljöpartiet
Piratpartiet
Folkpartiet
Kristdemokraterna
Vänsterpartiet
Sverigedemokraterna
18© TNS SIFO 2010
Vinstmöjligheter socialdemokraterna
Framtida vinster
2,4
0,5
0,4
0,5
0,2
0,2
2,5
1,2
Base n= 5,958 (total market)Read: Socialdemokraterna could potentially gain
2.4% of the voting public from Moderaterna Note: This chart does not include dual
supportersParties ranked on potential net gain/lossPercentages are based on the total sample
Centern
Moderaterna
Miljöpartiet
Piratpartiet
Folkpartiet
Kristdemokraterna
Vänsterpartiet
Sverigedemokraterna
19© TNS SIFO 2010
Hot mot Socialdemokraterna
Partier som är attraktiva för S-väljare
-2,0
-0,5
-0,8
-1,0
-0,7
-1,0
-4,8
-3,7
Base n= 5,958 (total market)Read: Socialdemokraterna could potentially lose 2% of the market to
ModeraternaNote: This chart does not include dual supporters
Parties ranked on potential net gain/lossPercentages are based on the total sample
Centern
Moderaterna
Miljöpartiet
Piratpartiet
Folkpartiet
Kristdemokraterna
Vänsterpartiet
Sverigedemokraterna
20© TNS SIFO 2010
Kristdemokraterna
20© TNS SIFO 2010
21© TNS SIFO 2010
Hot och Potensial Kristdemokraterna
Framtida förluster och vinster
För Kristdemokraterna
Positive score = potential togain supporters from competitor
Negative score = net potential to lose supporters to competitor
Note:
0,5
0,4
0,2
0,1
0,0
0,0
-0,1
-0,1
Base n= 5,958 (total market)Read: Kristdemokraterna stands to potentially gain 0.5% of the voting
public from Socialdemokraterna overallNote: This chart does not include dual supporters
Parties ranked on potential net gain/lossPercentages are based on the total sample
Moderaterna
Socialdemokraterna
Vänsterpartiet
Miljöpartiet
Piratpartiet
Centern
Folkpartiet
Sverigedemokraterna
22© TNS SIFO 2010
Potential Kristdemokraterna
Framtida vinster
1,5
0,7
0,7
0,7
0,5
0,4
0,3
0,1
Base n= 5,958 (total market)Read: Kristdemokraterna could potentially gain 1.5% of the voting public
from ModeraternaNote: This chart does not include dual supporters
Parties ranked on potential net gain/lossPercentages are based on the total sample
Sverigedemokraterna
Moderaterna
Piratpartiet
Centern
Socialdemokraterna
Miljöpartiet
Vänsterpartiet
Folkpartiet
23© TNS SIFO 2010
Hot mot Kristdemokraterna
Partier som är attraktiva för kristdemokrater
-1,5
-0,8
-0,7
-0,3
-0,2
-0,1
-0,1
-0,1
Base n= 5,958 (total market)Read: Kristdemokraterna could potentially lose 1.5% of the voting public
to ModeraternaNote: This chart does not include dual supporters
Parties ranked on potential net gain/lossPercentages are based on the total sample
Vänsterpartiet
Moderaterna
Piratpartiet
Centern
Miljöpartiet
Socialdemokraterna
Sverigedemokraterna
Folkpartiet
24© TNS SIFO 2010
Centern
24© TNS SIFO 2010
25© TNS SIFO 2010
Netto Potential och Hot Centern
Framtida förluster och vinster
Positive score = potential togain supporters from competitor
Negative score = net potential to lose supporters to competitor
Note:
0,8
0,5
0,5
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
Base n= 5,958 (total market)Read: Centern stands to potentially gain 0.8% of the voting public from
Socialdemokraterna overallNote: This chart does not include dual supporters
Parties ranked on potential net gain/lossPercentages are based on the total sample
Miljöpartiet
Socialdemokraterna
Vänsterpartiet
Moderaterna
Folkpartiet
Piratpartiet
Kristdemokraterna
Sverigedemokraterna
26© TNS SIFO 2010
Potential Centern
Framtida vinster
2,0
1,0
1,0
0,7
0,6
0,6
0,2
0,2
Base n= 5,958 (total market)Read: Centern could potentially gain 2% of the voting public from
Moderaterna Note: This chart does not include dual supporters
Parties ranked on potential net gain/lossPercentages are based on the total sample
Sverigedemokraterna
Moderaterna
Piratpartiet
Folkpartiet
Kristdemokraterna
Miljöpartiet
Vänsterpartiet
Socialdemokraterna
27© TNS SIFO 2010
Hot Centern
Partier som är attraktiva för Centerväljare
-1,6
-1,0
-0,7
-0,6
-0,2
-0,2
-0,2
0,0
Base n= 5,958 (total market)Read: Centern could potentially lose 1.6% of the voting public to
ModeraternaNote: This chart does not include dual supporters
Parties ranked on potential net gain/lossPercentages are based on the total sample
Vänsterpartiet
Moderaterna
Piratpartiet
Kristdemokraterna
Miljöpartiet
Socialdemokraterna
Sverigedemokraterna
Folkpartiet
28© TNS SIFO 2010
Folkpartiet
28© TNS SIFO 2010
29© TNS SIFO 2010
Netto Potential & Hot Folkpartiet
Framtida förluster och vinster
Positive score = potential togain supporters from competitor
Negative score = net potential to lose supporters to competitor
Note:
1,8
0,6
0,5
0,1
0,0
0,0
0,0
-0,3
Base n= 5,958 (total market)Read: Folkpartiet stands to potentially gain 1.8% of the voting public
from Moderaterna overallNote: This chart does not include dual supporters
Parties ranked on potential net gain/lossPercentages are based on the total sample
Piratpartiet
Moderaterna
Centern
Socialdemokraterna
Kristdemokraterna
Vänsterpartiet
Miljöpartiet
Sverigedemokraterna
30© TNS SIFO 2010
Potential growth opportunities for Folkpartiet
Framtida vinster
4,0
1,0
1,0
0,8
0,7
0,6
0,3
0,2
Base n= 5,958 (total market)Read: Folkpartiet could potentially gain 4% of the voting public from
Moderaterna Note: This chart does not include dual supporters
Parties ranked on potential net gain/lossPercentages are based on the total sample
Miljöpartiet
Moderaterna
Piratpartiet
Centern
Kristdemokraterna
Sverigedemokraterna
Vänsterpartiet
Socialdemokraterna
31© TNS SIFO 2010
Hot Folkpartiet
Partier som är attraktiva för Folkpartister
-2,2
-1,0
-1,0
-0,7
-0,5
-0,2
-0,1
-0,1
Base n= 5,958 (total market)Read: Folkpartiet could potentially lose 2.2% of the voting public to
ModeraternaNote: This chart does not include dual supporters
Parties ranked on potential net gain/lossPercentages are based on the total sample
Piratpartiet
Moderaterna
Vänsterpartiet
Miljöpartiet
Kristdemokraterna
Socialdemokraterna
Sverigedemokraterna
Centern
32© TNS SIFO 2010
Miljöpartiet
32© TNS SIFO 2010
33© TNS SIFO 2010
Netto Potential och Hot for Miljöpartiet
Framtida förluster och vinster
Positive score = potential togain supporters from competitor
Negative score = net potential to lose supporters to competitor
Note:
2,3
1,0
0,3
0,2
0,0
-0,2
-0,2
-0,2
Base n= 5,958 (total market)Read: Miljöpartiet stands to potentially gain 2.3% of the voting public
from Socialdemokraterna overallNote: This chart does not include dual supporters
Parties ranked on potential net gain/lossPercentages are based on the total sample
Kristdemokraterna
Socialdemokraterna
Piratpartiet
Folkpartiet
Sverigedemokraterna
Centern
Vänsterpartiet
Moderaterna
34© TNS SIFO 2010
Potential growth opportunities for Miljöpartiet
POTENTIAL FUTURE OPPORTUNITIES: PARTIES THAT Miljöpartiet COULD GAIN SUPPORTERS FROM
4,8
2,0
1,3
1,0
0,6
0,4
0,3
0,3
Base n= 5,958 (total market)Read: Miljöpartiet could potentially gain 4.8% of the voting public from
SocialdemokraternaNote: This chart does not include dual supporters
Parties ranked on potential net gain/lossPercentages are based on the total sample
Sverigedemokraterna
Socialdemokraterna
Kristdemokraterna
Vänsterpartiet
Folkpartiet
Centern
Piratpartiet
Moderaterna
35© TNS SIFO 2010
Potential threats to Miljöpartiet
Partier som är attraktiva för Folkpartister
-2,5
-1,5
-1,1
-0,6
-0,6
-0,5
-0,5
-0,2
Base n= 5,958 (total market)Read: Miljöpartiet could potentially lose 2.5% of the voting public to
SocialdemokraternaNote: This chart does not include dual supporters
Parties ranked on potential net gain/lossPercentages are based on the total sample
Kristdemokraterna
Socialdemokraterna
Piratpartiet
Moderaterna
Folkpartiet
Centern
Sverigedemokraterna
Vänsterpartiet
36© TNS SIFO 2010
Piratpartiet
36© TNS SIFO 2010
37© TNS SIFO 2010
Netto Potential & Hot Piratpartiet
Framtida förluster och vinster
Positive score = potential togain supporters from competitor
Negative score = net potential to lose supporters to competitor
Note:
0,7
0,4
0,3
0,2
0,0
0,0
-0,1
-0,1
Base n= 5,958 (total market)Read: Piratpartiet stands to potentially gain 0.7% of the voting public
from Moderaterna overallNote: This chart does not include dual supporters
Parties ranked on potential net gain/lossPercentages are based on the total sample
Folkpartiet
Moderaterna
Vänsterpartiet
Sverigedemokraterna
Miljöpartiet
Centern
Kristdemokraterna
Socialdemokraterna
38© TNS SIFO 2010
Potential growth opportunities for Piratpartiet
POTENTIAL FUTURE OPPORTUNITIES: PARTIES THAT Piratpartiet COULD GAIN SUPPORTERS FROM
1,1
0,8
0,5
0,5
0,2
0,2
0,1
0,1
Base n= 5,958 (total market)Read: Piratpartiet could potentially gain 1.1% of the voting public from
ModeraternaNote: This chart does not include dual supporters
Parties ranked on potential net gain/lossPercentages are based on the total sample
Centern
Moderaterna
Vänsterpartiet
Miljöpartiet
Sverigedemokraterna
Folkpartiet
Kristdemokraterna
Socialdemokraterna
39© TNS SIFO 2010
Potential threats to Piratpartiet
Partier som är attraktiva för piratpartister
-0,4
-0,4
-0,3
-0,3
-0,3
-0,3
-0,2
-0,2
Base n= 5,958 (total market)Read: Piratpartiet could potentially lose 0.4% of the voting public to
ModeraternaNote: This chart does not include dual supporters
Parties ranked on potential net gain/lossPercentages are based on the total sample
Kristdemokraterna
Moderaterna
Sverigedemokraterna
Miljöpartiet
Folkpartiet
Vänsterpartiet
Centern
Socialdemokraterna
40© TNS SIFO 2010
Sverigedemokraterna
40© TNS SIFO 2010
41© TNS SIFO 2010
Netto Potential & Hot Sverigedemokraterna
Framtida förluster och vinster
Positive score = potential togain supporters from competitor
Negative score = net potential to lose supporters to competitor
Note:
0,0
-0,2
-0,2
-0,3
-0,4
-0,5
-0,6
-0,6
Base n= 5,958 (total market)Read: Sverigedemokraterna stands to potentially gain 0% of the voting
public from Socialdemokraterna overallNote: This chart does not include dual supporters
Parties ranked on potential net gain/lossPercentages are based on the total sample
Centern
Socialdemokraterna
Folkpartiet
Vänsterpartiet
Piratpartiet
Kristdemokraterna
Moderaterna
Miljöpartiet
42© TNS SIFO 2010
Potential growth opportunities for Sverigedemokraterna
Framtida vinstmöjligheterfrån andra partier
0,6
0,5
0,2
0,2
0,1
0,1
0,0
0,0
Base n= 5,958 (total market)Read: Sverigedemokraterna could potentially gain 0.6% of the voting
public from ModeraternaNote: This chart does not include dual supporters
Parties ranked on potential net gain/lossPercentages are based on the total sample
Kristdemokraterna
Moderaterna
Centern
Piratpartiet
Miljöpartiet
Folkpartiet
Vänsterpartiet
Socialdemokraterna
43© TNS SIFO 2010
Potential threats to Sverigedemokraterna
Partier som är attraktiva för Sverigdemokraterna
-1,2
-0,7
-0,6
-0,5
-0,5
-0,4
-0,4
-0,3
Base n= 5,958 (total market)Read: Sverigedemokraterna could potentially lose 1.2% of the voting
public to ModeraternaNote: This chart does not include dual supporters
Parties ranked on potential net gain/lossPercentages are based on the total sample
Kristdemokraterna
Moderaterna
Miljöpartiet
Centern
Piratpartiet
Socialdemokraterna
Vänsterpartiet
Folkpartiet
44© TNS SIFO 2010
Vänsterpartiet
44© TNS SIFO 2010
45© TNS SIFO 2010
Netto Potential & Hot Vänsterpartiet
Framtida förluster och vinster
Positive score = potential togain supporters from competitor
Negative score = net potential to lose supporters to competitor
Note:
2,6
0,5
0,2
0,2
0,1
0,1
0,0
0,0
Base n= 5,958 (total market)Read: Vänsterpartiet stands to potentially gain 2.6% of the voting public
from Socialdemokraterna overallNote: This chart does not include dual supporters
Parties ranked on potential net gain/lossPercentages are based on the total sample
Kristdemokraterna
Socialdemokraterna
Centern
Sverigedemokraterna
Miljöpartiet
Piratpartiet
Folkpartiet
Moderaterna
46© TNS SIFO 2010
Potential growth opportunities for Vänsterpartiet
Framtida vinstmöjligheterfrån andra partier
3,7
1,5
0,7
0,3
0,3
0,2
0,1
0,1
Base n= 5,958 (total market)Read: Vänsterpartiet could potentially gain 3.7% of the voting public from
SocialdemokraternaNote: This chart does not include dual supporters
Parties ranked on potential net gain/lossPercentages are based on the total sample
Centern
Socialdemokraterna
Folkpartiet
Moderaterna
Piratpartiet
Sverigedemokraterna
Kristdemokraterna
Miljöpartiet
47© TNS SIFO 2010
Potential threats to Vänsterpartiet
Partier som är attraktiva för Vänsterpartister
-1,3
-1,2
-0,2
-0,2
-0,2
-0,1
-0,1
0,0
Base n= 5,958 (total market)Read: Vänsterpartiet could potentially lose 1.3% of the voting public to
MiljöpartietNote: This chart does not include dual supporters
Parties ranked on potential net gain/lossPercentages are based on the total sample
Piratpartiet
Miljöpartiet
Kristdemokraterna
Moderaterna
Folkpartiet
Centern
Sverigedemokraterna
Socialdemokraterna
48© TNS SIFO 2010
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