Tysons Transportation Service District Rate Options

Tysons Transportation Service District Advisory Board

April 3, 2013 1

Recap March 18th Meeting

• Stable rates - Proposed to remain unchanged for much of the life of the tax district

• Modeled at $0.09 and $0.07

• Step rates - Proposed to start low and then increase annually to a longer term rate. Two models were provided:

• Modeled by starting at $0.04 and increasing annually by $0.01 to $0.09 and

• Modeled by starting at $0.04 and increasing annually by $0.01 to $0.07

• Both options included funding the $253 million requirements through Pay-Go and Bond Financing

2

Follow Up Request from March 18th Meeting – New Tax Rate Model

• Created new model in response to Advisory Board requests to:

• Model a closer relationship of revenue and expenditures

• Evaluate reduction in tax rate in later years

• Extend payoff period

• Illustrate relationship with Dulles Rail Phase 1 Tax District

• Conscious of 29 Cent Planning Cap

3

Modified Bell Curve Approach

4

Characteristics of Modified Bell Curve Approach

Model Results

• Payoff period finishes in 2048

• Reduces tax rates in last years

• Most years at $0.06 tax rate

• Increases gross tax revenue contributions

• When combined with Dulles Rail Phase I, does not exceed $0.29 planning cap

5

Tax Rates for Bell Curve

6

$-

$0.01

$0.02

$0.03

$0.04

$0.05

$0.06

$0.07

$0.08

$0.09

$0.10

$0.11

$0.12

$0.13

$0.14

$0.15

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16

FY17

FY18

FY19

FY20

FY21

FY22

FY23

FY24

FY25

FY26

FY27

FY28

FY29

FY30

FY31

FY32

FY33

FY34

FY35

FY36

FY37

FY38

FY39

FY40

FY41

FY42

FY43

FY44

FY45

FY46

FY47

FY48

FY49

FY50

FY51

FY52

FY53

Annual Revenue Allocation for Bell Curve

7

$0

$5,000,000

$10,000,000

$15,000,000

$20,000,000

$25,000,000

$30,000,000

$35,000,000

$40,000,000

$45,000,000

$50,000,000

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16

FY17

FY18

FY19

FY20

FY21

FY22

FY23

FY24

FY25

FY26

FY27

FY28

FY29

FY30

FY31

FY32

FY33

FY34

FY35

FY36

FY37

FY38

FY39

FY40

FY41

FY42

FY43

FY44

FY45

FY46

FY47

FY48

FY49

FY50

FY51

FY52

FY53

Net Bond Proceeds(Balanced)Annual Residual

Aggregate Debt Service

Tax Revenue Provided forPay-Go

Cumulative Dulles Rail Phase I & Bell Curve Tax Rates

8

$-

$0.05

$0.10

$0.15

$0.20

$0.25

$0.30

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16

FY17

FY18

FY19

FY20

FY21

FY22

FY23

FY24

FY25

FY26

FY27

FY28

FY29

FY30

FY31

FY32

FY33

FY34

FY35

FY36

FY37

FY38

FY39

FY40

FY41

FY42

FY43

FY44

FY45

FY46

FY47

FY48

FY49

FY50

FY51

FY52

FY53

Summary of Tax Rate Models

Criteria 9 Stable 7 Stable 4 to 9 Step

4 to 7 Step

4 to 7 Bell Curve

Total Tax Revenue Needed*

$323.3m $336.4m $328.0m $349.5m $412.5m

Final Tax Year

2035 2040 2036 2041 2048

Maximum Cumulative Deficit

$3.8m $8.8m $12.9m $12.9m $10.2m

Number Years in Deficit

4 8 8 9 9

9

* Includes Pay-Go, Bond Debt Service, and use of reserves/early debt payments

Use of Tax Revenue (in millions)

9 Stable 7 Stable 4 to 9 Step

4 to 7 Step

4 to 7 Bell Curve

Pay-Go $88.5 $68.8 $76.7 $64.6 $68.6

Aggregate Debt Service

$88.3 $163.6 $105.7 $180.6 $238.2

Use of Residual Fund Balance

$146.5 $104 $145.6 $104.3 $105.7

Gross Tax Revenue

$323.3 $336.4 $328 $349.5 $412.5 10

FY 2014 Budget Calendar

• Public Hearings – FY 2014 Budget

• Tuesday April 9th begins at 6pm

• Wednesday April 10th begins at 3pm

• Thursday April 11th begins at 3pm

• Budget Markup - April 23, 2013

• Budget Adoption - April 30, 2013

• FY 2014 – July 1, 2013

• Adoption of a Service District Tax Rate for FY 2014 only has a ½ year rate collection impact

• July 2013 collections excluded, December 2013 included 11

Questions?

12