International Relation in the Asia Pacific

Professor FUJIMURO Kazuhiro

TOKTORALIEV Keneshbek

ID 51216632

The new transregional security politics of the Asia-Pacific

Locating the global regional nexus in Asia security

US established a network of bilateral alliances involving Japan, South Korea, Thailand, the Philippines, and the Republic of China (Taiwan).

“hub and spokes” strategic relations in East Asia.Important relationship between Japan and the US.

“San Francisco system” (1950s, Australia, New Zealand, the Philippines, South Korea, Taiwan, South Vietnam, US)

Political-military relationshipANZUS (1951, Australia, New Zealand, US)

International defense organizationHave not remained symbolically important.

SEATO (1954, Australia, France, New Zealand, Pakistan (East Pakistan - Bangladesh), The Philippines, Thailand, UK, US)

Intergovernmental military allianceFailed to make much impact on the region’s security architecture.

Foreign policy of Japan revolves around and emanates from the security needs.

Threat of Japan: Challenge of China; Nuclear program of North Korea.

How Japan deals with the challenge of China and North Korea in its security relationship with US.

POWER

The “million dollar question” is about China’s true intentions.

Is China a growing hegemon and an aggressor nation against US hyper power and potential threat to Japan? Or is it simply a developing nation protecting its own interests?

What is Japan doing about it?

Prudence and realism dictates to prepare for an aggressor China;

Idealism indicates that Japan should work with China politically, military, and economically.

The China question

Two ways to make a state a tempting target:

I.

II.

China and North Korea – US and Japan.

The China questionStrategically Speaking

Aggressive policy

Disarm to the point of weakness

Grow militarycapabilities

An aggressor state

Possibility of conventional or nuclear conflict?

China counts on US greed for cheap products to avoid a new Cold War while it builds PLA;

The US counts on China’s greed for more profits to keep it from becoming more aggressive.

US and Japan are seeing China as a growing threat.

The China questionStrategically Speaking (cont.)

China’s military and technological advancement:

purchasing much of the latest weaponry and technology from Russia, Israel and EU; building up technological military-industrial complex; demonstrating technological advancement through space program.

Anxiety of US.

The China questionChallenging America

The cause for most of the worry in Asia is not simply the growth in Chinese military power over the past decade. Rather, it is the ways in which China is now exercising its new abilities. In particular, given the importance of trade routes, the expansion of the Chinese Navy’s operations throughout the East and South China Seas is causing alarm.

Asian AnxietyBy MICHAEL AUSLINPublished: October 25, 2011

Demonstration of military force.

Fomenting anti-Japanese nationalism within China

(riots, street demonstrations).

Raising a generation of anti-Japanese Chinese.

The China questionChallenging Japan

I. Lack of adequate energy reserves to fuel its industrial needs.

II. The environment in China is also an important threat to Chinese power.

III. Newfound wealth.

IV. China’s position in the world system.

The China questionChina’s Achilles’ Heel

The Question of North Korea

Problematic issues of the relationship between Japan and North Korea:

Abduction of the Japanese citizens.

North Korea’s nuclear-weapons program.

Nuclear-armed Japan? What is the public’s opinion?

The problem (and solution?) is that a nuclear Japan as a counterweight to a nuclear North Korea is exactly what China don't want to see.

What is Japan doing to protect itself in an increasingly tense situation in Northeast Asia?

Two factors which can bring Japan to nuclear club: Credibility of the US nuclear security guarantee; Decline in relationship with US.

“No matter what it is called, whether it’s a self-defense capability or an organization to defend Japan, the SDF should have a solid foundation in the Constitution to eliminate any argument branding it as contrary to the nation’s fundamental law” - PM Koizumi Junichiro on 2 February 2005.

Japanese Policy: Action and ReactionStrategic Action

Building international goodwill.

The status that Japan wants as a part of its global efforts at goodwill is a permanent seat on the UN Security Council.

Japanese Policy: Action and ReactionBuilding Goodwill

Renewed Japan-American alliance as a consequence of growing Chinese militarism.

Importance of alliance with US.

Japanese Policy: Action and ReactionRelations with the United States

regi

onal

rival

for p

ower

rival in Asia

Allies

RUSSIA Not officially settled WWII

SOUTH KOREA Not forgiven Japan for its occupation

NORTH KOREA Potential threat to Japan

TAIWAN Own isolation policy

In spite of the challenge and potential rival, that is making itself to be to US and Japan, China is an even greater threat to itself.

Japan can become a major power, when China and North Korea dictate that action by becoming a threat that Japan can no longer ignore.

Japan’s relationship with US is a key relationship for both nations. Both need each other to support their global position.

Conclusion

Would not a revision of Article 9 of the Constitution of Japan lead to the public outcry both within Japan and internationally and as a consequence to the loss of Japan's authority and image of the goodwill country?

Would not the development of weapons of mass destruction lead to a rapid escalation of tension in Northeast Asia in particular and the Asia-Pacific region as a whole?

Question

THANK YOU