The Effects of Term Limits

Karl Kurtz

National Conference of State Legislatures

Term Limit Provisions

Limit in Years Consecutive Limit Lifetime Limit

6 House/8 Senate AR, MI

8 Total NE

8 House/8 Senate AZ, CO, FL, ME, MT, OH, SD

MO

12 Total CA, OK

12 House/12 Senate LA NV

Turnover and Term Limits:Membership Change in Houses

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

1968 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 2000 2 4 6 8 10

pe

rce

nt

House Turnover in Term-Limited and Non-Term-Limited States

TL States

NTL States

Source: Gary Moncrief, Richard G. Niemi and Lynda W. Powell, "Turnover in State Legislatures: An Update," Western Political Science Association, March 22-25, 2008

Term limit enactment

period

The Experience GapPercent of Members in Each Chamber With at Least Five

Years Experience at Start of Next Session

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002

6-yr TL 8-yr TL No TL

Source: Gary Moncrief, Richard G. Niemi and Lynda W. Powell, "Turnover in State Legislatures: An Update," Western Political Science Association, March 22-25, 2008

The “Burkean Shift”

0 1 2 3 4

Talk to constituents

Solve constituent problems

Seek district projects

Send mailings

NTL States

TL States

“Legislators today compared to a decade ago…

Scale: 1 (Much less time) to 5 (Much more time)

Legislators’ Knowledge

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3

Statewide issues

Process

Committee issues

NTL States

TL States

“Legislators today compared to a decade ago…

Scale: 1 (Much less knowledgeable) to 5 (Much more knowledgeable)

House to Senate Movement

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

1994 1996 1998 2000 2002

6-8 yr. TL

12-yr. TL

NTL

Experience of House Speakers in TL Legislatures

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

AZ AR CA CO ME OH Avg.

Avera

ge

yea

rs o

f se

rvic

e

3 Pre-TL Spkrs

Post-TL Spkrs

Source: Joint Project on Term Limits

Power Shifts over 10 Yrs.

-1

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

AZ AR CA CO ME OH IL IN KS

Governor Agencies

TL States Control States

Score of Zero Indicates “about the same.”

Executive G

ain

sLe

gis

lative G

ain

s

Source: JPTL Knowledgeable Observer Survey, 2003

Summary: Effects of Term Limits

• Vary depending on type of legislature

• Loss of experienced legislators– Less knowledge of substantive issues

– Less institutional knowledge

– More chaotic legislatures

• No effect on who is elected

• Less attention to constituents

• Senates have more experience

• Governors gained power

Limits on Leaders’ Terms

Years By Custom By Rule By Statute

2 Florida HouseFlorida Senate North Dakota House South Dakota House Wyoming House

Arkansas Senate Wyoming Senate

4 Kansas HouseKansas Senate

Oklahoma House

6 Connecticut House Maine HouseMaine Senate

8 Massachusetts House Massachusetts Senate