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Voting IntentionTracking Poll
Jan 2011
Methodology and Weighting
RED C interviewed a random sample of 1004 adults aged 18+ by telephone between the 26th & 27th Jan 2011.
A random digit dial (RDD) method is used to ensure a random selection process of households to be included – this also ensures that ex-directory households are covered.
Half of the sample are interviewed using an RDD landline sample, with the other half conducted using an RDD mobile phone sample, this ensures 98% coverage of the population reaching landline only households, mobile only households and those with both a landline and a mobile.
Interviews were conducted across the country and the results weighted to the profile of all adults. A further past vote weighting is included that takes the current recall for how people voted at the last election, compares this to the actual results, and weights the data to halfway between the two.
Finally vote intention results are based on those who will actually go and vote, using a 10 point scale, where 1 is not at all likely and 10 is very likely, those rating 4 to 10 are included as being those who will actually go and vote.
SUNDAY BUSINESS POST – 30th January 2011 - Opinion Poll
Election 2011 – Runners & Riders
On Tuesday the Dail will be dissolved and the election campaign can start in earnest. So what does the wealth of data we have available from the monthly Sunday Business Post Tracking polls tell us about the likely outcome for each of the runners and riders, in a few weeks time?
Fianna Fail will do badly
One of the most consistent stories from the polls over the past two years, is the decline in the Fianna Fail vote. In today’s poll the party secured 16% of the first preference vote. This is 26% less than they achieved at the last election. In the six months prior to the election campaign in 2007 their average support was at 38%. In the campaign itself they made “impressive” gains to take 42% share, only a rise of 4% above the average of the previous six months. Extrapolating these trends forward to now; even if the Martin factor gives the party a bounce and assuming some “shy voter” impact and some “local candidate” impact, it is unlikely that they can get hope to secure more than low 20’s on Election Day.
Verdict – Somewhere between 16% and 22%, but evidence of the appeal of Martin suggests they could push this to the top end of the range with a good campaign.
Labour will make significant gains
At the last general election the Labour Party secured 10% of the vote, while in the last six polls before that election they had an average share in the polls of 12%. Move on four years and the average share for Labour in the most recent six polls has been 25%, which represents a significant rise in support for the party. However they have dropped off a bit in the last two polls, with 21% recorded this time, and did lose some support in the final run in to the last election. Extrapolating forward they should still secure close to double the first preference vote compared to 2007, and the fact that they are far more transfer friendly should give their seat to share ratio a boost. However, there is evidence from the by-election in Donegal prior to Christmas that indicates that the Labour first preference vote in polls could be a little more “flaky” than for other parties. Also, the impact of Gilmore may not be as strong a card to play, with Martin now rated ahead of him as a preferred Taoiseach.
Verdict – This is the toughest to call as their vote is so volatile – so somewhere between high teens and mid twenties.
Fine Gael are most likely to lead the next government
Fine Gael support has been trending up for the past few weeks, but this has come to halt now, as they drop back to 33% in today’s poll. In the past 6 months support for the party has been on average 33%. This is 9% higher than the average seen for the party before the last general election in 2007. During the campaign itself in 2007, their support firmed up to reach 27% overall.
Fine Gael does however have two key issue areas that may limit support. The first is that Enda Kenny remains a “turn off” for some voters, lying in third place behind Martin & Gilmore as preferred Taoiseach. As he gets increased exposure during the campaign, this may depress support for the party. The second is that the party still has something of a problem convincing people that they can really manage the economy from its current poor position.
Verdict – I suspect that support they will end up with somewhere between low and mid 30’s.
Sinn Fein could do better than expected
The success of Pearse Doherty in the Donegal by election has improved the image of Sinn Fein in the minds of many voters. This has led to an increase in the polls, with them securing 13% today. The main issue for the party is that those who say they may vote Sinn Fein, have historically fallen away on Election Day; either from getting cold feet closer to the time, or simply being less likely to bother going out to vote at all.
In the 2007 General Election the party polled 9% on average in the six months before the campaign, but ended up with 7%. If the party sees a similar fall off this year, it still may end up with about 11% share of first preference, a significant improvement on 2007. However the party is still held quite negatively by a large proportion of voters who claim there is no chance they would vote for them, and the support they have may be squeezed if Fianna Fail make gains.
Verdict – will probably do better than 2007, but closer to 10% share
Green Party may not have any TD’s
The average Green Party share of the first preference vote over the past six months is 3%. This is a significant decline for the party compared to 2007. The party polled on average at 8% over the last six months before the campaign started in 2007, they then dropped off to about 6% during the campaign, and ended up on 5% first preference. The party cannot afford the same decline in support from a 3% start point, particularly as they have also become far less transfer friendly even from Fianna Fail voters during their time in government. This makes it far harder for even their high profile candidates to get elected.
Verdict - some very tight battles for final seats in constituencies, possibly 2-3 seats - but possibly none, with high profile independents fighting against them.
Independents will prosper in pockets
There is a lot of talk that Independent candidates will do particularly well this year, as a disenfranchised electorate vote for people outside of the party system. Our latest polls appear to back this up, with 15% support in today’s poll, and an average of 11% over the last six months. This is a significant improvement when compared to the 7% average share they received in the six weeks prior to the last General Election campaign. Independents didn’t lose traction during the campaign in 2007, but they may lose out a bit if Fianna Fail make some gains.
Verdict - with new high profile candidates such as Shane Ross and Paul Somerville running, we are likely to see more independent candidate seats in the next Dail.
33%
16%
21%
13%
2%
15%
Fine Gael Labour Fianna Fail Sinn Féin Green Party Independents/ Other
If there were a general election tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote?(Base: All adults WHO WILL VOTE 18+)
24%
33%
27%
8%
2%
6%
24%
31%
23%
10%
3%
9%
18%
32%
27%
9%
4%
10%
17%
33%
27%
11%
3%
8%
17%
34%
23%
14%
2%
10%
16%
33%
21%
13%
2%
15%
10%
6%
42%
27%
7%
5% Fianna Fáil Fine Gael Labour Sinn Féin Green Party Independents/
Other
General election 2007
June 2010
Sept 2010
Oct 2010
Nov 2010
Dec 2010
Jan 2011
If there were a general election tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote?(Base: All adults WHO WILL VOTE 18+)
CURRENT FIRST PREFERENCE SUPPORT
Core figures
30th Jan 2011
Excluding undecided
2007 Election Results
% % %
Fine Gael 26 33 27
Labour 17 21 10
Fianna Fáil 13 16 42
Sinn Féin 10 13 7
Green Party 2 2 5
Independents/
Others12 15 6
Undecided 20
If there were a general election tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote?(Base: All adults WHO WILL VOTE 18+)
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
GE 0
2Ap
l 05
Sep-
05De
c-05
Jan-
06Fe
b-06
Mar
-06
Apr-0
6M
ay-0
6Ju
n-06
Jul-0
6Se
p-06
Oct-0
6No
v-06
Jan-
07Fe
b-07
Mar
-07
Apr-0
7M
ay-0
7M
ay-0
7M
ay-0
7M
ay-0
7GE
07
Sep-
07Oc
t-07
Nov-
07Ja
n-08
Feb-
08M
ar-0
8Ap
r-08
May
-08
Jun-
08Se
p-08
Oct-0
8No
v-08
Jan-
09Fe
b-09
Mar
-09
Apr-0
9M
ay-0
9M
ay-0
9Se
p-09
Sep-
09Oc
t-09
Nov-
09Ja
n-10
Feb-
10M
ar-1
0Ap
r-10
May
-10
Jun-
10Se
p-10
Oct-1
0No
v-10
Dec-
10Ja
n-11
If there were a general election tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would give your first preference vote?(Base: All adults 18+)
Fianna Fáil
Fine Gael
Labour
Sinn Féin
Green Party
PDs
33%
21%
16%
Independent15%
2%
2006 2007 2008 2009
13%
2010
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
GE
07
Sep-
07
Oct
-07
Nov
-07
Jan-
08
Feb-
08
Mar
-08
Apr-
08
May
-08
Jun-
08
Sep-
08
Oct
-08
Nov
-08
Jan-
09
Feb-
09
Mar
-09
Apr-
09
May
-09
May
-09
Sep-
09
Sep-
09
Oct
-09
Nov
-09
Jan-
10
Feb-
10
Mar
-10
Apr-
10
May
-10
Jun-
10
Sep-
10
Oct
-10
Nov
-10
Dec
-10
Jan-
11
If there were a general election tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would give your first preference vote?(Base: All adults 18+)
Fianna Fáil
Fine Gael
Labour
Sinn Féin
Green Party
PDs
33%
21%
16%
Independent15%
2%
13%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
First Preference Vote Share – 2007 vs. 2011?(Base: All adults 18+)
Fianna Fáil
Fine Gael
Labour
Sinn Féin
Green Party
PDs
Independent
20076 Polls Prior to Campaign
2007Campaign
2007Result
20116 Polls Prior to Campaign
(38%)
(23%)
(12%)
(8%=)
42%
27%
10%
5%
7%6%
(19%)
(33%)
(25%)
(3%)
(11%)
(11%)
Fine Gael
Fianna Fáil
Labour
Independent
Green Party
Sinn Féin
6 pollAve
6 pollAve
33%
21%
16%13%
15%
31%
20% 19%
13%
2%
15%
2%
Normal D/K allocation Past Vote weighted D/K Allocation
Fine Gael Labour Fianna Fail Sinn Féin Green Party Independents/ Other
Spiral of Silence Allocation of Undecided Voters.If there were a general election tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote? (Base: All adults WHO WILL VOTE 18+)
The Spiral of SilenceAssumes that one party is so poorly thought of that respondents are “ashamed” to admit that they will vote for them.
To take account of this we look at how those who are currently undecided or refuse to give a preference voted at the last general election.
We then re-allocate 50% of these to the party they voted last time, and 50% to how the rest claim they will vote this time.
9 11 12 1710 8 6 8 7
15
25 23 18
29
12 10
44 41
20
23
24 25
11
18
46 49
8 5
2520
7 10
12
8 4 710 17
24
7 4
15
3 4 67 3
30
14 1415
15 912
14 15
1720
14 13 17 10 15 8 11 1126
19
Second Preference among First preference voters
FG%
FF%
Labour% %
Fianna Fáil
Fine Gael
Labour
Sinn FéinGreen
Independents
Undecided
First Preference
Second Preference
TOTAL%
9 919 19 16 12 10 10 4 2
10 11
2920 28
2112 10
9 8
8 7
1317
15
17
8 810 9
10 15
1213 14
16
11 12 1515
60 56
24 27 22 29
55 57 59 62
3 3 3 4 4 4 3 2 3 4
Attitude to 1st Preference Voting for this Party at Next General Election
FG%
FF%
Labour% % %
(Base: All Adults Likely to Vote – 900)
Definitely Will
Likely To
Might Do
Probably Won’t
Definitely Won’t
D/K Refused
20 13 14 14 9 11 15 10
2831 32 25 37 35 20
18
52 56 54 61 54 5465 72
Strength of loyalty/disposition among claimed voters for each of the main parties
LOYALWill definitely vote for that
party at next election
FG%
Dec 10 Jan 11
Labour%
Party 1st Preference
LIKELYWill probably vote for that party at next election, but
may change mind
FLOATINGNot sure who to vote for at the moment, but this party
seems the best of any
% %Dec 10 Jan 11 Dec 10 Jan 11 Dec 10 Jan 11
Best Taoiseach after Next General Election
31
26
19
7
6
11
Eamonn Gilmore
Q. Irrespective of which party you support, which of the main party leaders do you believe would make the best Taoiseach for Ireland after the next general election?
(Base: All Adults 18+ Years – 1,000)
Enda Kenny
Micheal Martin
Don’t know
None of these
%
Gerry Adams
