Perspective >> 2011 Thai General Election

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Document Owner The primary contact for questions regarding this document is: Author: Gregory M. Thomas, Mike Williams, Duangporn Akkaravivat Project Name: TH-158 Phone: +66 (2) 207-2392 Email: g.thomas@fc-asia.com

Document Approval Document Name: Perspective >> 2011 Thai General Election Publication Date: 21 August 2011 Prepared by: Duangporn Akkaravivat

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Table of Contents

Introduction 5

Part One - Legitimacy 7

Legal 8

Power Sharing 9

Moral Leadership 10

Reform 11

Legitimacy - Conclusion 13

Part Two - Governing 15

Economy 16

Education 17

Infrastructure 21

Productivity 22

Governing - Conclusions 25

Endnotes 26

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5

Introduction

The recent general election in Thailand has caught the imagination of the international press who

have heralded Yingluck Shinawatra 1as a “young, female leader *sic, who+ could drastically alter the

polarized nation.”2

Source - Aljazeera3 - How long will the honeymoon last?

Thais love drama, known as Lakorn4, and politics in Thailand has played out as drama for a long time

through intrigues or military intervention or street protests. The Election Commission’s (ECT)5

endorsement of Yingluck Shinawatra as Thailand’s first female Prime Minister-designate provides an

opportunity to change that, but she will face a daunting task starting, and some say ending, with her

coming out from under the shadow of her brother exiled former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra.

Source – BBC6 - Can Yingluck come out from her brother’s shadow?

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Imagine building a house, if the foundation is not solid or if the columns cannot support the weight,

the entire house could fall down. This is similar to the situation that Thailand’s new government will

be facing.

So what are the challenges faced by the new government to overcome?

First, the new government will have to navigate challenges to its legitimacy.

If successful, then the second challenge will be successfully governing a divided country

as it prepares for 2015 and Asean Economic Community (EAC).

On Shaky Footing?

The first part will review some of the elements that could contribute to undermining the legitimacy

of the new government. While the second part will review the elements that could derail Yingluck’s

ability of effectively govern.

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Part One - Legitimacy

The political landscape in Thailand today is continuing to mature. For each successive government

establishing its credibility as the legitimate ruling party is a primary concern. This is usually

accomplished after the party has risen to power rather than through the election itself. In the short-

term, this is normal in a fractious political environment where there rarely is a clear winner.

However, there is a long-term risk that democratic institutions will become vulnerable to

demagoguery.

In recent years, successive governments have succumbed to issues surrounding their legitimacy.

Particularly governments affiliated with deposed Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra where the

challenges successfully brought down three governments to-date. Challenges to the legitimacy of a

Yingluck Shinawatra led government will provide a trial-by-fire and could possibly prove the undoing

for a Prime Minister with little direct experience in Thai Politics.

Challenges of legitimacy are more than likely to come from five directions.

Legal

Reconciliation

Power Sharing

Moral Leadership, or the lack thereof

Reform

Source – The International 7- Same same but different?

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Legal

The dust has barely settled from the election and the ECT has already begun investigating allegations

of electoral impropriety. While this is not new in Thailand, there is a significant risk that allegations

from either side will lead to a return of protests (either Red- or Yellow-shirts)8, and ultimately an

erosion of confidence in the government’s ability lead.

A partial list of identified legal risks includes:

Allegations, as yet unproven, that Puea Thai Party officials bribed journalists for

favorable coverage during the election campaign.

Potential party dissolution cases regarding the involvement of banned politicians and

the use of coercive tactics during the campaign.

Legal cases to nullify the election as well as a petition campaign to dissolve parliament.

Legal questions regarding the status of Red-shirt leaders elected to parliament which

could weaken the government’s majority.

Questions whether traditional power brokers allow for and accept the decisions of an

impartial judiciary.

While there are other risks, this list highlights the tenuous position of the newly elected Puea Thai

Government. As with the past 3 governments since the 2007 election questions of the government’s

legality could cripple its ability to move towards reconciliation.

Reconciliation

The ‘R-word’ has become a catchphrase for fixing Thailand. It is not that simple.

While earnest efforts towards reconciliation would help, interests on both sides are entrenched and

resilient. As non-Thais we simply cannot comprehend the lengths that Thais will go to avoid conflict.

The unrest as witnessed on the streets of Bangkok in recent years shocked the international

community, but to date a sense of pragmatism has helped to pull Thailand back from the abyss.

“Over the past 20 years, Thailand has been on the brink of chaos a few times. There

were a couple of times when we had a toe or two in the realm of anarchy. But we

never really went there. Cooler heads prevailed and compromises were made. The

government's crackdown on the Ratchaprasong occupation on May 19 last year may

have brought an end to our latest flirtation with anarchy. But it wouldn't have ended

there if the key people on both sides did not stop and say, ''Wait a second, this is

bad for business.''9

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However this view is a bit simplistic as trends can change and with each incident there is an

escalated opportunity that ‘this’ time will be different than the last.

Finding out the truth might prove to be impossible. According to sources, currently military

leadership will not tolerate a loss of power or prestige. But the military is not the only obstacle

towards reconciliation as all sides are unwilling to accept a loss of face and there appears a lack of

political will to see the process through.

Will Thailand see a South African style Truth and Reconciliation Commission10? Probably not. The

end result of ‘Reconciliation’ will be uniquely Thai in its approach and delivery.

Source – In Asia11 - Who will accept responsibility?

Power Sharing

This is one of the most difficult challenges to quantify, while the true root causes of the 2006 coup

will never be known, it would appear that former prime minister’s meddling in military affairs played

a role. To successfully govern in Thailand the ruling party must collaborate with vested interests and

there is no guarantee that they will share the same agenda as the government. If past performance

is any indication this balancing act is difficult and will require commitment to work. With neither

side trusting the other it would appear that Thailand is entering a political cycle similar to the mid-

1970’s. In a cycle such as this, small missteps or misunderstandings could ultimately undermine the

government’s mandate.

One of Yingluck’s first obstacles to power sharing will be the naming a Minster of Defence who the

current military leadership will accept. This will provide a test of Yingluck’s ability to achieve a

working partnership with the entrenched interests who really run the country.

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Source – Bangkok Post12 - What’s behind door number 1?

Moral Leadership

Moral leadership, by definition, requires leaders to act, follow, and hold others to a higher standard.

This standard should be for the common good and not pit the needs of one special interest over

another. Organizations, governments included, tend to distort moral worth based on the interests

of the most active/vocal stakeholders; according to March13, some of the sources of distortion

include:

Decision-making involving multiple actors with inconsistent preferences.

Strategic exchange of information, rather than neutrally informative, i.e. done with

“ulterior” purposes in mind; misrepresentation is assumed.

Absence of time and attention in the decision-making process.

Simply put, the squeaky wheel gets the grease.

This distortion commonly results in in policies that are inefficient or ineffective at best and solutions

that create problems in other areas.

If the government carries out an agenda that is too one-side or seeks to extract vengeance the push

back could undermine the government’s standing. At the same time if Yingluck is too successful in

establishing her credentials as moral leader she could be perceived as a threat from the more

traditional seats of power. This balancing act might prove difficult to sustain and given the record of

previous governments, Yingluck’s relative inexperience in politics, and the need to share power and

prestige with various interest groups the outlook is not positive.

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Reform

How do you enact reforms when those in power do not see the necessity for such reforms and the

general public is complicit in perpetuating the status quo?

By all accounts corruption in Thailand is a problem. The Thai Chamber of Commerce and the Board

of Trade listed corruption as one of the most urgent issues to address.14 While successive

governments have attempted to curtail corruption Thailand’s relative position, as per Transparency

International’s Corruption Perception Index (CPI), has slid backward in recent years. Given the

increased constraints on foreign business operating under the long arm of the UK Bribery Act and

the US Foreign Corrupt Practices Act (FCPA), an alternative approach to reform would be to legalize

all forms of corruption. This would eliminate some of the legal constraints for foreign business

operating in Thailand and would help the market to better identify the true cost of doing business in

Thailand.

Ironically, the 2006 coup which was meant to target the corrupt practices of the Thai Rak Thai

Government under Thaksin Shinawatra did little to end corruption.

Source – Transparency International15

While TI’s rankings lag behind actual instances of corrupt practice it would appear that a first step

would be an end to extra-electoral influences on the transition of power (i.e. military, street

protests, or a less-than-impartial judiciary).

Commitment to the transition of power through electoral/parliamentary means is only a first step

toward eliminating corrupt practices other obstacles remain and will continue to weigh heavy on

Thailand’s competitiveness, such as:

Bloated civil service, police, and military ranks that are more interested in generating

revenue for themselves than actually serving the country.

Lack of a full understanding of the need for an independent judiciary.16

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1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

CPI Ranking

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Legal enforcement that does not recognize the need for equal protection.

Overhaul of promotion practices in all state agencies.

State ownership and intimidation of media outlets.

State owned enterprises that are often inefficient and uncompetitive.

Lack of genuine efforts to reform to the labor market to promote competitiveness and

sustainability.

Government abuse of dubious laws that seek to limit or curtail civil liberties.

Overall lack of urgency to address these issues.

The recent debt collection case in Germany provides a case study for how governments perceive the

role of the judiciary. Whereas German officials repeatedly stated that they had no control over the

actions of the courts and they respected the independence of the judiciary the Thai side was

“genuinely astonished that the German government cannot influence its judiciary.”17

Given the government’s need to broker with the traditional seats of power to achieve legitimacy and

the general lack of interest to change, the outlook for reform in the short term is not promising. If

the government acts too quickly it will increase the risk of counter actions from entrenched

stakeholders who feel threatened by moves towards liberalization or modernization and this could

eventually unseat the government.

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Legitimacy – Conclusion

So what does this mean? At this point we have focused on the known factors but unknown factors

will heavily influence the ability of Yingluck and the Peau Thai Party to overcome challenges to their

legitimacy and remain in power for at least the next two years. For example, if party dissolution

cases go to the Constitutional Court, will the cases be decided impartially? What are the risks to

establishing moral leadership?

Chances of success, short- to long-term

The government will have a relatively low chance for success and it is more than likely that one of

more elements will combine to undermine its legitimacy. From the current perspective, it would

appear that the biggest risks are legal challenges or the inability to establish an agreeable

mechanism for sharing power.

This tenuous hold on power will weigh heavy on a Prime Minister with little direct political

experience and will cause her to seek refuge among advisers that will not be accepted by many. This

will increase the risk that the government will not serve out its full term. Depending on the

circumstances, dissolution might redefine the ‘norm’ in Thailand.

For businesses, the events of the past 5 years have had limited impact on the economy as economic

fundamentals remain sound, for now. As one of the most developed markets in ASEAN, Thailand

represents significant potential. Given the current political environment it is more than likely that

this potential will remain unfulfilled well into the next decade.

0 2 4 6 8 10

Legal

Power Sharing

Moral Leadership

Reconciliation

Reform

>18 Months

6~18 Months

<6 Months

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Long-term chance of success

Yes 28%

No 72%

Change of Success >18 Months

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Part Two - Governing

While the recent endorsement of the new government clears the first hurdle to legitimacy the more

immediate task is to overcome the challenges to governing a divided country. The new government

will need to do a lot of heavy lifting to position Thailand for the AEC in 2015; however, the

consequences of getting it wrong are greater than at any point in Thailand’s post-war history. Given

the failure of previous governments to achieve meaningful results along with the speed of

integration both regionally and globally the outlook is murky at best. The recent political situation

has led to a state of inertia and it will take cooperation and adept leadership to position Thailand to

achieve its full potential in the near-future.

Now the real heavy lifting

Will Yingluck and her team prove to be the right people at the right time? The answer will depend

on the perspective of various constituencies. While the preferred approach varies from group to

group, there is, at some level, alignment on what the challenges are:

Economy

Education

Infrastructure

Productivity

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Economy

The first priority for the new government will be the economy and with good reason. The global

economic outlook for 2012 is uncertain and the potential slowdowns in China, Europe, and the U.S.

pose significant risk for an export-reliant economy such as Thailand’s. Also Thailand risks losing out

in the competition for capital and skills as progress towards a more open market-based economy lag

behind several of its neighbors. While these changes, or lack thereof, will be less immediate to the

government’s electoral base, balancing populist promises with sound fiscal policy may prove

difficult. According to a recent report in the Wall Street Journal, “concerns about inflation and other

problems that could threaten the vibrancy of Southeast Asia's second-largest economy.”18

Time for restructuring19

The proposed rise in minimum wage will have a minimal effect on the broader economy in the mid-

term and an almost negligible effect on growth industries. Raising minimum wage without

addressing some of the structural issues that have held back Thailand’s competitiveness for years

including the outsized portion of casual labor to the total labor force and the need to rationalize the

country’s tax regime to promote investment at all levels of industry will have almost no impact as

real wage growth will become capped in the long-term.

Many voters listed the economy as their number one concern during the election and if the Puea

Thai government is unable to address these they might find themselves surrounded by disgruntled

constituencies.

Can the government balance populist policies with sound fiscal policy? To a large extent this

depends on the acceptance of certain economic models over others. In the case of Thailand, a

round investment would help to the country out of the ‘middle-income trap’. But given the

contentiousness of these policies and the self-serving nature of spending in the past, the

government will have to implement reforms along with investments to achieve sustainable results.

Required economic reforms include:

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Price liberalization and reduction in subsidies.

Fiscal and tax reforms, including broadening the tax base.

Financial sector and banking reforms.

Establishing favorable legal and regulatory framework for enterprise growth and

development.

The challenge for the new government will be pursuing policies that achieve these goals without

alienating interests that are already skeptical of the government’s ability to perform.

Source – Thailand Macro Economic Briefing20

Education

Thailand has made significant strides in improving the quality of education, especially in Bangkok,

but progress has been uneven and Thai students are generally less proficient in English and IT than

their peers around the world. Fundamentally, the education system does not support developing

the necessary skills for a knowledge economy such as problem solving and project management.

While there is a cultural disposition towards creativity, translating creativity into innovation is a

challenge for the vast majority of students. To a large extent this is a byproduct of an education

9,000,000

21,000,000

8,000,000

Casual Labor to Monthly and Daily Labor

Monthly Wage

Casual Labor

Daily Wage

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system that puts more emphasis on rote learning than research and development, the consequence

is a middle-income country with a workforce that for the most part has a low-income skill set.

Left unchecked, Thailand’s education system will continue to churn out fresh graduates who are

unprepared for the harsh realities of a global integration. The responsibility for preparing Thailand

for the enactment of the AEC in 2015 will fall on the shoulders of the new government and with it

will come the challenges creating a stable platform for the development leaders who can achieve a

move up the Value Chain to compete in an integrated marketplace without legislated barriers to

protect monopolies.

According to one visiting professor, ‘Thai students are 20 years behind their counterparts in

Singapore.’ The system is being hollowed out through competition as illustrated by the rise of

international schools in Thailand. According to a presentation by Dr. Virachai Techavijit the “main

conclusion that can be drawn from the rapid expansion of the international school ‘industry’ in

Thailand is the fact that economic growth in Thailand and the effects of globalization are the major

factors that have contributed to this phenomenon.”21 This is actually an oversimplification as it fails

to recognize another possible cause; those with means are choosing to take their children outside of

the Thai education system altogether. The new schools are just a reaction to that choice and not the

cause of it.

Source – The International Schools Phenomenon in Thailand22

Primary and secondary schools are not the only part of the system falling behind. A review of the

university system shows that need for reorganization and reinvestment as universities are unable to

recruit the ‘best and brightest’. The 2010 World University Rankings23 does not include one

university from Thailand in its Top 200 and the QS World University Rankings®24 only includes

Chulalongkorn University (number 180). This is surprising for the 19th largest country25 by

population and the 30th largest economy26 but is telling of the effectiveness of the system as a

whole. However the focus has not been on improving the standing of Thailand’s educational system.

According to Chulalongkorn University Vice President MR Kalaya Tingsabadh "We categorize CU as

world-class in the 'national' university division, not world-class in an 'international' university

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Rise of International Schools in Thailand - 1950 to 2010

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division.”27 While the goal to serve the nation’s development is commendable, shouldn’t Thai

universities set an example for the improvement of educational standards?

Source - World University Rankings powered by Thomson Reuters28

According to a recent editorial in the Bangkok Post, “Thailand's education budget, at 30% of the total

national budget, is already among the highest in the world. Yet its quality is in a shambles. The

school system is oppressive. The children do not think independently.”29 Shockingly, neighboring

countries use the Thai system to measure the ineffectiveness of their educational systems as noted

by Datin Azimah Rahim, President of Malaysia’s Parent Action Group for Education (PAGE), “Our

education system was once on par with Singapore but it has since dropped to the level of

Thailand.”30

For Thailand to be competitive in the future, the government must find a way to increase the

effectiveness of its human capital investments at all levels as the system continually fails to prepare

students for the integration demands of a global knowledge based economy. If change does not

come soon the result will be a growing ‘donut-hole’ in Thailand’s human capital that will render the

country incapable of competing in an integrated knowledge based economy.

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China Hong Kong Japan Korea Singapore Taiwan Thailand

Universities in Top 200

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Bucks but no Buck Rogers31

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Infrastructure

After 5 years of infighting the need for infrastructure investment has grown even more.

In Bangkok, the road network has continued to improve and the Bangkok region is fortunate to have

direct access modern air and sea ports. However, integrated logistics is difficult to achieve on scale.

This is exacerbated by the growth in the countries second level cities, a trend that consumer product

companies and retailers have had a difficult time adjusting to.

Source – Thailand Macro Economic Briefing32

Rail links are poor and the State Railway of Thailand (SRT) has proven to be incapable of

modernization. What is required is bold action and leadership, such as joint ventures, privatization,

and wholesale reorganization to balance labor/management issues. While there is some hope with

recent announcements of a high-speed rail link with China in all likelihood this project will probably

delivered behind schedule and over budget.

The telecom space is another example slow pace of development. With mobile operators choosing

to roll out 3G service on their own rather than waiting for the government and government owned

telcos. This is a high risk game as aggressive moves to launch 3G service under current contracts

might bring about reviews of the true shareholding structures of the number one (AIS) and number

two (DTAC) mobile operators. Internet connectivity in Thailand also lags far behind other countries

in the region, this constraint has actually slowed adoption of SaaS and IaaS solutions for mid-size

enterprises as the IT infrastructure lack the bandwidth to support these applications.

Continuing to ignore the need to improve its infrastructure will cap the country’s economic potential

at current levels. In the midst of this, the country’s internet usage rates are far behind more

advanced countries in the region and there is some evidence suggests that real usage is much lower

when deducting internet users who are only online at work.

2,897

3,748

2002 Bangkok Vicinities Other Provinces 2009

Increase in the number of employed persons in municipal areas with > 15k montly income between 2002 and 2009

75% of the increase is outside Bangkok and vicinities

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Source - International Telecommunication Union, World Telecommunication/ICT Development Report and database, and World Bank

estimates.33

The new government will have to address the following to spur:

Increased access to markets (mostly agricultural) for the government’s political base.

Investment in so-called ‘mega’ projects to improve Thailand’s competitive advantages.

Adoption of reforms mandated under the AEC.

The government needs to plot a course that will position Thailand for future growth without

upsetting the interests that run the country today, something that previous governments have found

difficult to accomplish.

Productivity

Innovation and productivity tend to suffer in low-cost countries as there is little incentive for either.

For the government the challenge is to motivate private industry to take real steps out of the

‘middle-income trap’. Activity in high-tech industries has grown in recent years the country must

establish new competitive advantages. Regional integration through the AEC will eventually tear

down some of the barriers that have shielded certain industries for so long. The proposed increase

in the daily minimum wage will put further pressure on lagging productivity rates to remain

competitive in the global market.

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1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009

Internet Users per 100 People

Hong Kong SAR, China Korea, Rep. Malaysia Singapore Thailand

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According to a joint project of The National Economic and Social Development Board and the World

Bank,

“Labor productivity fell sharply during the 1997-98 financial crisis and has remained

stagnant ever since. The generally poor productivity performance of the services

industry in recent years raises concerns about the potential of this sector to be an

engine for gains in the real wages and living standards of Thai workers in the

future.”34

According to one economist, there are three areas in which industry can help move the focus from

low-cost labor towards world-class competitive advantages:35

Appropriate education and training

Capital investment

Cutting edge research and development

While a certain amount of automation is required to for industries to compete the fear is that over-

reliance on automation will put pressure on cash flows and prove to be highly inflexible in the long-

term leaving Thai companies in an even weaker position. Instead Thai companies should follow the

Japanese model of utilizing automation with a human touch and not the wholesale replacement of

workers which could further reduce the willingness to improve.

Stagnation in productivity is not limited to the service sector; according to USDA Global Rice Yield

data, yield improvements from Thailand’s fertile rice growing regions lags behind other countries in

the region. In a country where the phrase for eating is literally ‘eat rice’, continued poor

performance could have significant ramifications for the country as a whole.

Source – USDA - Rough rice yield, by country and geographical region36

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When yields in Thailand are compared to Vietnam, a country that went through a prolonged period

of armed conflict, the picture is disturbing as it points to structural defects in the agriculture sector.

Source – USDA - Rough rice yield, by country and geographical region37

So where does this leave Thailand? Productivity must improve to support strategies to move up the

value chain, but without a significant restructuring of the labor force to dramatically reduce the

number of casual laborers38, business will lack the impetus to invest in continuous improvement

programs on a grand scale. The risk for companies doing business in Thailand is that the recent

debate surrounding wages and productivity will lead to more cost uncertainty in the short-term and

with exports representing 70% of Thailand’s GDP, the new government needs to navigate this issue

correctly.

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Governing - Conclusion

Can the new government implement policies to overcome these challenges? Yes and No. Yes, the

government will deliver a policy statement, but their ability to get buy-in from the civil service and

industry will depend on which methods the government and its ministers employ to reach

consensus. In a country where there is a cultural bias towards passive-aggressiveness this will not be

easy. The more progressive the government’s plan, the more likely it is fail simply because various

interest groups won’t appreciate the need for change; as the saying goes there is rice in the fields

and fish in the stream.

For business, now is a time to tread carefully when considering Thailand. Beyond the potential

implications of continued political unrest, the country is falling behind in terms of its

competitiveness. If a company already has significant assets in Thailand, they need to think through

contingencies for these assets to ensure they are viable in an integrated marketplace. If a company

is considering investment in Thailand it really needs to uncover the motivations behind the decision

by asking how this decision will support the creation of value. This is not to say don’t invest in

Thailand, depending on the industry and where in the value chain the investment will be, Thailand

can offer significant advantages. If the decision brings the company closer to its supply base or its

customers the decision might be the correct one. But in an integrated ASEAN market, Thailand is no

longer the only choice and through its policies the government must act to correct this.

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Endnotes 1Yingluck Shinawtra (n.d.). In Wikipedia. Retrieved 6 July 2011, from

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yingluck_Shinawatra (Thai: , RTGS: Yinglak Chinnawat, Thai

pronunciation: *jîŋ.lák tɕʰīn.nā.wát+) 2 Macan-Marker, M (4 July 2011) Rural Thais roar to political forefront. In Aljazeera. Retrieved 6 July 2011,

from http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/features/2011/07/20117415539124100.html 3 Profile: Yingluck Shinawatra (n.d.) In Aljazeera. Retrieved 24 July 2011 from

http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/spotlight/thaielection/2011/06/2011630133948265426.html 4 Lakorn (n.d.) In Wikipedia. Retrieved 6 July 2011, from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lakorn

5 Office of the Election Commission of Thailand. Retrieved 6 July 2011, from http://www.ect.go.th/english/

6 Pongsudhirak, T (12 July 2011) Thailand's Shinawatras: From clan to dynasty. In BBC. Retrieved 24 July 2011

from http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-14075218 7 Muma, M (April 2010), Thailand’s Unstable Democracy. In The International. Retreived 24 July 2011 from

http://theinternational.isb.ac.th/article.php?article=396 8 Profile: Thailand's reds and yellows. In BBC. Retrieved 6 July 2011, from http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-

asia-pacific-13294268 9 Vanijaka, V. (22 May 2011) The clone VS The puppet. The Bangkok Post. In Bangkok Post. Retrieved 6 July

2011, from http://www.bangkokpost.com/opinion/opinion/238213/the-clone-vs-the-puppet 10

Brandon, J. J. (29 June 2011) Will Thaksin Outmaneuver Thailand’s Military and Traditional Elites? In Asia. Retrieved, 24 July 2011 from http://asiafoundation.org/in-asia/2011/06/29/will-thaksin-outmaneuver-thailands-military-and-traditional-elites/ 11

Truth and Reconcilliation Commission. Retrieved 6 July 2011, from http://www.justice.gov.za/trc/ 12

Prateepchaikul, V. (23 June 2011). Gen Prayuth, erratic and worrisome. Bangkok Post. Retreived 24 July 2011 from http://www.bangkokpost.com/opinion/opinion/243602/general-prayuth-erratic-move 13

March, J.G. (1989) The Allocation of Attention: in Decisions and Organizations (pp. 3-12). Cambridge: Blackwell. 14

Pratruangkrai, P (16 June 2011) Next Govt must handle corruption: private companies. The Nation. Retrieved 19 July 2011, from http://www.nationmultimedia.com/home/Next-Govt-must-handle-corruption-private-companies-30157916.html 15

Walker, A (9 July 2011) Thailand’s corruption record. In New Mandala. Retrieved 19 July 2011, from http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/2011/07/09/thailands-corruption-record/ 16

Saiyasombut, S (20 July 2011). The impounded Thai aircraft and lessons from the Thai media. In Asian Correspondent, Retrieved 20 July 2011 from http://asiancorrespondent.com/60414/the-impounded-thai-aircraft-and-lessons-from-the-thai-media/ 17

Ibid.

Foundation Consulting Private and Confidential Distribution Subject to Copyright 27

18 Murray, L. & Barta, P (6 July 2011) Fears Rise Country's New Populism Could Boost Inflation, Cut Growth. The

Wall Street Journal Asia. Retrieved 7 July 2011, from http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304760604576427432523320132.html 19

Association of Canadian Community Colleges. (2004) Sri Lanka: Proposed Human Resource Investment Project. Project Preparation Technical Assistance Report for named project, ADB, Manila, p. 39. 20

Suthiwart-Narueput, S (22 February 2011). Macro Briefing: Some things to watch in the business landscape in 2011 and beyond. Presentation to the American Chamber of Commerce of Thailand. 21

Techavijit, V, (1 March 2007), P. 10 “The International Schools Phenomenon in Thailand and the Implementation of the International Baccalaureate”, Delivered at Oxford University. 22

Techavijit, V, (1 March 2007), P. 8 “The International Schools Phenomenon in Thailand and the Implementation of the International Baccalaureate”, Delivered at Oxford University. 23

The World University Rankings powered by Thomson Reuters. Retrieved 19 July 2011, from http://www.timeshighereducation.co.uk/world-university-rankings/2010-2011/top-200.html 24

World University Rankings 2010. Retrieved 13 August 2011, from http://www.topuniversities.com/university-rankings/world-university-rankings/2010 25

List of countries by population (n.d.) In Wikipedia. Retrieved 19 July 2011 from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_population 26

List of countries by GDP (nominal) (n.d.) In Wikipedia. Retrieved 19 July 2011 from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal) 27

Khoapa, W. (21 February 2011) Worldclass standards and boosting, The Nation. Retrieved 13 August 2011 from http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2011/02/21/national/Worldclass-standards-and-boosting-30149111.html 28

The World University Rankings powered by Thomson Reuters. Retrieved 19 July 2011, from http://www.timeshighereducation.co.uk/world-university-rankings/2010-2011/top-200.html 29

Editorial (24 June 2011) Parties ignore education's ills. Bangkok Post. Retrieved 19 July 2011 from http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/local/243703/parties-ignore-education-ills 30

Victor, C (19 July 2011) More 'thinking' students needed. The Malay Mail. Retrieved 19 July 2011 from http://www.mmail.com.my/content/78188-more-thinking-students-needed 31

Adapted from Schwab, Porter and Sachs (2002). 32

Suthiwart-Narueput, S (22 February 2011). Macro Briefing: Some things to watch in the business landscape in 2011 and beyond. Presentation to the American Chamber of Commerce of Thailand. 33

International Telecommunication Union, World Telecommunication/ICT Development Report and database, and World Bank estimates. Retrieved 20 August 2011 from http://www.worldbank.org/ 34

Bosworth, B Dr., Bhaopichitr, K Dr., Mahakit, W., Nararak, W, Thamsermsukh, A., Phoosakul, S. Khlaisuan, W., Wuttisorn, P. Dr. Limpanonda, S., Termpittayapaisith, S., Matin, K. Dr., Thongampai, R. Measuring Output and Productivity in Thailand’s Service-producing Industries A joint project of The National Economic and Social Development Board and the World Bank

Foundation Consulting Private and Confidential Distribution Subject to Copyright 28

35 Trairatvorakul, P. (21 July 2011) ‘Thailand’s investment environment – looking forward’ Delivered to the Joint

Foreign Chamber of Commerce of Thailand. 36

USDA - Rough rice yield, by country and geographical region. In International Rice Research Institute. Retrieved 20 July 2011, from http://beta.irri.org/solutions/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=250 37

Ibid. 38

casual labour. (2011). In Encyclopædia Britannica. Retrieved 20 July 2011 from http://www.britannica.com/EBchecked/topic/690768/casual-labour

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1

Yingluck Shinawtra (n.d.). In Wikipedia. Retrieved 6 July 2011, from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yingluck_Shinawatra (Thai: , RTGS: Yinglak Chinnawat, Thai

pronunciation: *jîŋ.lák tɕʰīn.nā.wát+) 2 Macan-Marker, M (4 July 2011) Rural Thais roar to political forefront. In Aljazeera. Retrieved 6 July 2011,

from http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/features/2011/07/20117415539124100.html 3

Profile: Yingluck Shinawatra (n.d.) In Aljazeera. Retrieved 24 July 2011 from http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/spotlight/thaielection/2011/06/2011630133948265426.html 4 Lakorn (n.d.) In Wikipedia. Retrieved 6 July 2011, from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lakorn

5 Office of the Election Commission of Thailand. Retrieved 6 July 2011, from http://www.ect.go.th/english/

6 Pongsudhirak, T (12 July 2011) Thailand's Shinawatras: From clan to dynasty. In BBC. Retrieved 24 July 2011

from http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-14075218 7 Muma, M (April 2010), Thailand’s Unstable Democracy. In The International. Retreived 24 July 2011 from

http://theinternational.isb.ac.th/article.php?article=396 8 Profile: Thailand's reds and yellows. In BBC. Retrieved 6 July 2011, from http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-

asia-pacific-13294268 9 Vanijaka, V. (22 May 2011) The clone VS The puppet. The Bangkok Post. In Bangkok Post. Retrieved 6 July

2011, from http://www.bangkokpost.com/opinion/opinion/238213/the-clone-vs-the-puppet 10

Truth and Reconcilliation Commission. Retrieved 6 July 2011, from http://www.justice.gov.za/trc/ 11

Brandon, J. J. (29 June 2011) Will Thaksin Outmaneuver Thailand’s Military and Traditional Elites? In Asia. Retrieved, 24 July 2011 from http://asiafoundation.org/in-asia/2011/06/29/will-thaksin-outmaneuver-thailands-military-and-traditional-elites/ 12

Prateepchaikul, V. (23 June 2011). Gen Prayuth, erratic and worrisome. Bangkok Post. Retreived 24 July 2011 from http://www.bangkokpost.com/opinion/opinion/243602/general-prayuth-erratic-move 13

March, J.G. (1989) The Allocation of Attention: in Decisions and Organizations (pp. 3-12). Cambridge: Blackwell. 14

Pratruangkrai, P (16 June 2011) Next Govt must handle corruption: private companies. The Nation. Retrieved 19 July 2011, from http://www.nationmultimedia.com/home/Next-Govt-must-handle-corruption-private-companies-30157916.html 15

Walker, A (9 July 2011) Thailand’s corruption record. In New Mandala. Retrieved 19 July 2011, from http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/2011/07/09/thailands-corruption-record/ 16

Saiyasombut, S (20 July 2011). The impounded Thai aircraft and lessons from the Thai media. In Asian Correspondent, Retrieved 20 July 2011 from http://asiancorrespondent.com/60414/the-impounded-thai-aircraft-and-lessons-from-the-thai-media/ 17

Ibid.

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