Purple Perspective: The 2012 Election (January 2012 Edition)
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The 2012 Election January 2012 The Purple Perspective: 815 Slaters Lane Alexandria, VA 22314 | 703.548.7877 | www.purplestrategies.com Doug Usher, Ph.D. Managing Director, Purple Insights
Purple Perspective: The 2012 Election (January 2012 Edition)
As the nation’s politicos focus on New Hampshire and the other upcoming Republican primaries, we look at the state of the general election race in our new Purple Election Perspective. Our report tracks the economic and political data points that indicate President Obama’s likelihood of re-election, including direct comparisons to other recent incumbents. In our latest edition, President Obama remains in perilous position compared to other incumbents. At the same time, trends across nearly all measures are in his favor. Take a look at the Purple Election Perspective, and judge for yourself!
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1. The Purple Perspective: The 2012 Election January 2012 Doug
Usher, Ph.D. Managing Director, Purple Insights 815 Slaters Lane
Alexandria, VA 22314 | 703.548.7877 | www.purplestrategies.com
2. What is The Purple Perspective?Unbiased, data-driven
analysis of the political environmentthat helps our clients prepare
for the future.Key metrics put in proper historical context to
offer realinsight, not just the latest spin from either
side.Updated regularly to provide the latest take on
currentpolitical conditions. Created by Purple Insights. Please
contact Doug Usher at [email protected] or
703-548-7877 for more informaCon.
3. Overview Key measures have improved since August, with
positive trendlines At the same time, Obama still lags other
Presidential incumbentsDespite recent economic improvements, the
sour national mood continuesKey factors to watch in coming months:
Can Obama continue the positive trends? Economic reports the
economy remains central to this campaign The speed with which the
GOP chooses a nominee Fundraising numbers for Obama and the GOP
Created by Purple Insights. Please contact Doug Usher at
[email protected] or 703-548-7877 for more
informaCon.
4. By most key metrics, Obama is at a disadvantage comparedto
other incumbents, but current trends are mostly positiveMetric
Implications for Short term Incumbent change: impact onSTRUCTURAL
re-election Growth Rate in GDP + Growth Rate in Disposable Personal
Income n/c Unemployment Rate ++ Average Monthly Job Creation ++
OPINIONPresidential Job Approval + Satisfaction with Direction of
the Country n/c Current State of the Economy n/c Prospective
Evaluation of the Economy ++ Personal Financial Situation Compared
to Last Year n/c Expected Financial Situation Next Year + Consumer
Sentiment + TOTAL + Created by Purple Insights. Please contact Doug
Usher at [email protected] or 703-548-7877 for more
informaCon.
5. GDP growth for Obama is much slower than for
recentsuccessful incumbents Growth Rate in GDP (Third Quarter, Year
3) Reagan 8.1% Bush II 6.7% Clinton 3.4% Carter 2.9% Obama 1.8%
Bush I 1.7%Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Created by Purple
Insights. Please contact Doug Usher at
[email protected] or 703-548-7877 for more
informaCon.
6. GDP growth is on a slight upward trend, but remains low
Growth Rate in GDP 20% Carter Reagan Economic Growth Rate (2005
Dollars) Bush I 15% Clinton Bush II Obama 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% 1/2
2/2 3/2 4/2 1/3 2/3 3/3 4/3 1/4 2/4 3/4 4/4 Source: Bureau of
Economic Analysis Quarter/Year in term Created by Purple Insights.
Please contact Doug Usher at [email protected] or
703-548-7877 for more informaCon.
7. Whether the third quarter increase in GDP will find its way
intovoters pockets remains to be seen % Change in Disposable
Personal Income (Third Quarter, Year 3) Reagan 6.1 Bush II 5.7
Clinton 3.0 Carter 2.3 Bush I 0.8 Obama -1.9 Source: Bureau of
Economic Analysis Created by Purple Insights. Please contact Doug
Usher at [email protected] or 703-548-7877 for more
informaCon.
8. Disposable income has been declining consistently Carter
Disposable Personal Income 13% Reagan % Change in Disposable
Personal Income Bush I Clinton Bush II Obama 8% (2005 Dollars) 3%
-2% -7% 1/2 2/2 3/2 4/2 1/3 2/3 3/3 4/3 1/4 2/4 3/4 4/4 Source:
Bureau of Economic Analysis Quarter/Year in term Created by Purple
Insights. Please contact Doug Usher at
[email protected] or 703-548-7877 for more
informaCon.
9. Unemployment continues to put Obama in a poor position,
thoughother incumbents have recovered Unemployment Rate (December
Year 3) Clinton 5.6% Bush II 5.7% Carter 6.0% Bush I 7.3% Reagan
8.3% Obama 8.5% Source: Bureau of Labor StaCsCcs Created by Purple
Insights. Please contact Doug Usher at
[email protected] or 703-548-7877 for more
informaCon.
10. The unemployment rate is on a short-term trend that is
similar to Reagans Unemployment Rate 11% Carter Reagan Bush I 10%
Clinton Unemployment Rate Bush II 9% Obama 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 1/3 2/3
3/3 4/3 5/3 6/3 7/3 8/3 9/3 10/3 11/3 12/3 1/4 2/4 3/4 4/4 5/4 6/4
7/4 8/4 9/4 10/4 11/4 Source: Bureau of Labor StaCsCcs Month/Year
in term Created by Purple Insights. Please contact Doug Usher at
[email protected] or 703-548-7877 for more
informaCon.
11. Job creation since the 2010 midterms is steady, though
notremarkable Average Monthly Job Creation (Midterm Elections
through December Year 3) (In Thousands) Reagan 237 Clinton 203
Carter 194 Obama 135 Bush II -4 Bush I -76Source: Bureau of Labor
StaCsCcs Created by Purple Insights. Please contact Doug Usher at
[email protected] or 703-548-7877 for more
informaCon.
12. Improved monthly reports could help buoy Obama 1200 Monthly
Job CreaIon Carter 1000 Reagan Bush I Clinton 800 Bush II Jobs
Created (In Thousands) Obama 600 400 200 0 -200 -400 -600 1/3 2/3
3/3 4/3 5/3 6/3 7/3 8/3 9/3 10/3 11/3 12/3 1/4 2/4 3/4 4/4 5/4 6/4
7/4 8/4 9/4 10/4 11/4 Source: Bureau of Labor StaCsCcs Month/Year
in term Created by Purple Insights. Please contact Doug Usher at
[email protected] or 703-548-7877 for more
informaCon.
13. Obamas job approval is at the low end for all incumbents at
thispoint in his term Do you approve or disapprove of the way _____
is handling his job as president? % Saying Approve (January Year 4)
Bush II 56% Carter 55% Reagan 53% Clinton 47% Obama 46% Bush I 45%
Source: Gallup Created by Purple Insights. Please contact Doug
Usher at [email protected] or 703-548-7877 for more
informaCon.
14. 50% appears to be a key demarcation line, and Obama remains
below it but has a positive trend Do you approve or disapprove of
the way _____ is handling his job as president? 90% Job Approval
80% 70% % Approving 60% 50% 40% 30% Carter Reagan 20% Bush I
Clinton 10% Bush II Obama 0% 1/3 2/3 3/3 4/3 5/3 6/3 7/3 8/3 9/3
10/3 11/3 12/3 1/4 2/4 3/4 4/4 5/4 6/4 7/4 8/4 9/4 10/4 11/4
Source: Gallup Month/Year in term Created by Purple Insights.
Please contact Doug Usher at [email protected] or
703-548-7877 for more informaCon.
15. Satisfaction with the countrys direction is extremely low
In general, are you saCsed or dissaCsed with the way things are
going in the United States at this Cme? % Saying Satisfied
(November Year 3) Bush II 44% Bush I 32% Clinton 30% Obama 12%
Reagan -- Source: Gallup Created by Purple Insights. Please contact
Doug Usher at [email protected] or 703-548-7877 for
more informaCon.
16. There has been slight improvement in overall satisfaction
in thepast few months In general, are you saCsed or dissaCsed with
the way things are going in the United States at this Cme? 60%
SaIsfacIon with Way Things Are Going in the US 50% % Saying SaIsed
40% 30% 20% Bush I 10% Clinton Bush II Obama 0% 1/3 2/3 3/3 4/3 5/3
6/3 7/3 8/3 9/3 10/3 11/3 12/3 1/4 2/4 3/4 4/4 5/4 6/4 7/4 8/4 9/4
10/4 11/4 Source: Gallup Month/Year in term Created by Purple
Insights. Please contact Doug Usher at
[email protected] or 703-548-7877 for more
informaCon.
17. Few offer positive evaluations of the economy How would you
rate economic condiCons in this country today -- as excellent,
good, only % Saying fair, or poor? Excellent or Good (January Year
4) Bush II 40% Clinton 29% Bush I 12% Obama 11% Reagan -- Source:
Gallup Created by Purple Insights. Please contact Doug Usher at
[email protected] or 703-548-7877 for more
informaCon.
18. Recent winning incumbents have seen substantial upswings
inelection years How would you rate economic condiCons in this
country today -- as excellent, good, only fair, or poor? 50%
Current State of the Economy 45% Bush I 40% Clinton % Saying
Excellent/Good Bush II 35% Obama 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 1/3 2/3
3/3 4/3 5/3 6/3 7/3 8/3 9/3 10/3 11/3 12/3 1/4 2/4 3/4 4/4 5/4 6/4
7/4 8/4 9/4 10/4 11/4 Source: Gallup Month/Year in term Created by
Purple Insights. Please contact Doug Usher at
[email protected] or 703-548-7877 for more
informaCon.
19. Just a quarter see an improving economy, though Obama
ispositioned alongside other successful incumbents Do you think the
naConal economy is geng % Saying Better be]er, staying the same, or
geng worse? (December Year 3) Reagan 46% Bush II 35% Obama 27%
Clinton 16% Bush I 5% Source: American Research Group *Pre-May 2011
quesCon wording: For each item I name, please tell me if its geng
BETTER, geng WORSE, or staying about the same. How about [ITEM]? Is
that geng MUCH be]er/worse or SOMEWHAT be]er/worse? The naConal
economy. (Washington Post) Created by Purple Insights. Please
contact Doug Usher at [email protected] or
703-548-7877 for more informaCon.
20. There has been a recent, sharp increase in positive belief
aboutthe economy Do you think the naConal economy is geng be]er,
staying the same, or geng worse? 60% ProspecIve Economic EvaluaIon
Reagan Bush I 50% Clinton Bush II % Saying GeQng BeSer 40% 30% 20%
10% 0% 1/3 2/3 3/3 4/3 5/3 6/3 7/3 8/3 9/3 10/3 11/3 12/3 1/4 2/4
3/4 4/4 5/4 6/4 7/4 8/4 9/4 10/4 11/4 Month/Year in term Source:
American Research Group *Pre-May 2011 quesCon wording: For each
item I name, please tell me if its geng BETTER, geng WORSE, or
staying about the same. How about [ITEM]? Is that geng MUCH
be]er/worse or SOMEWHAT be]er/worse? The naConal economy.
(Washington Post) Created by Purple Insights. Please contact Doug
Usher at [email protected] or 703-548-7877 for more
informaCon.
21. Retrospective evaluations of personal finances are at lows
foran incumbent Would you say that you (and your family living
there) are be]er o or worse o nancially than you were a year ago? %
Saying Better (June Year 3*) Bush II 47% Reagan 42% Clinton 40%
Bush I 30% Obama 28% Source: Thomson Reuters and The University of
Michigan poll *January Year 4 data are displayed for previous
presidents; June Year 3 data is the most recently available for
Obama. Created by Purple Insights. Please contact Doug Usher at
[email protected] or 703-548-7877 for more
informaCon.
22. At the same time, the trend is positive for Obama Would you
say that you (and your family living there) are be]er o or worse o
nancially than you were a year ago? 60% Financial SituaIon Compared
to Last Year % Saying BeSer than Last Year 50% 40% 30% 20% Reagan
Bush I 10% Clinton Bush II Obama 0% 1/1 3/1 5/1 7/1 9/1 11/1 1/2
3/2 5/2 7/2 9/2 11/2 1/3 3/3 5/3 7/3 9/3 11/3 1/4 3/4 5/4 7/4 9/4
11/4 Month/Year in term Source: Thomson Reuters and The University
of Michigan Created by Purple Insights. Please contact Doug Usher
at [email protected] or 703-548-7877 for more
informaCon.
23. There is little optimism about potential economic
improvementA year from now, do you expect the nancial situaCon in
your household to be be]er than it is today, the same as it is
today, or worse than it is today? % Saying Better (December Year 3)
Clinton 37% Bush II 37% Reagan 35% Bush I 31% Obama 23% Source:
American Research Group *Pre-2011 quesCon wording: Now looking
ahead--do you think that a year from now you (and your family
living there) will be be]er o nancially, or worse o, or just about
the same as now? (Thomson Reuters and The University of Michigan)
Created by Purple Insights. Please contact Doug Usher at
[email protected] or 703-548-7877 for more
informaCon.
24. Yet this measure is also improving A year from now, do you
expect the nancial situaCon in your household to be be]er than it
is today, the same as it is today, or worse than it is today? 60%
Financial SituaIon Next Year 50% % Saying BeSer Next Year 40% 30%
20% Reagan Bush I 10% Clinton Bush II Obama 0% 1/3 2/3 3/3 4/3 5/3
6/3 7/3 8/3 9/3 10/3 11/3 12/3 1/4 2/4 3/4 4/4 5/4 6/4 7/4 8/4 9/4
10/4 11/4 Source: American Research Group Month/Year in term
*Pre-2011 quesCon wording: Now looking ahead--do you think that a
year from now you (and your family living there) will be be]er o
nancially, or worse o, or just about the same as now? (Thomson
Reuters and The University of Michigan) Created by Purple Insights.
Please contact Doug Usher at [email protected] or
703-548-7877 for more informaCon.
25. Incumbents who won re-election enjoyed consumer
confidencemuch higher than Obama The Consumer SenCment Index is
comprised of various measures of Americans feelings of personal
nancial security and views of the Index Score economy. (December
Year 3) Reagan 94.2 Bush II 92.6 Clinton 91.0 Obama 69.9 Bush I
68.2 Source: Thomson Reuters and The University of Michigan Created
by Purple Insights. Please contact Doug Usher at
[email protected] or 703-548-7877 for more
informaCon.
26. Obama will need to maintain the current trend to bring
himclose to other successful incumbents Consumer SenIment Da y El
ecCon r 100 Dec embeConsumer SenIment Index Score 80 60 40 Reagan
Bush I 20 Clinton Bush II Obama 0 1/3 2/3 3/3 4/3 5/3 6/3 7/3 8/3
9/3 10/3 11/3 12/3 1/4 2/4 3/4 4/4 5/4 6/4 7/4 8/4 9/4 10/4 11/4
Source: Thomson Reuters and The University of Michigan Month/Year
in term Created by Purple Insights. Please contact Doug Usher at
[email protected] or 703-548-7877 for more
informaCon.
27. Overview Key measures have improved since August, with
positive trendlines At the same time, Obama still lags other
Presidential incumbentsDespite recent economic improvements, the
sour national mood continuesKey factors to watch in coming months:
Can Obama conCnue the posiCve trends? Economic reports the economy
remains central to this campaign The speed with which the GOP
chooses a nominee Fundraising numbers for Obama and the GOP Created
by Purple Insights. Please contact Doug Usher at
[email protected] or 703-548-7877 for more
informaCon.