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THE IVORY INSTITUTENew View Ivory 2012
THE IVORY INSTITUTENew View Ivory 2012
Utah Positioned for the Future …
Natalie GochnourSalt Lake Chamber
November 18, 2011
Top of Mind Words | U.S. Economy
Skittish
Uncertain
Vulnerable
Dispirited
Underperforming
SourGlum
Angry
FlatFrustrating
THE IVORY INSTITUTENew View Ivory 2012
“We are seeing the worst economic numbers since the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008…We are poised for a Lehman-like event.”
Fareed ZakariaGlobal Public SquareSeptember 25, 2011
THE IVORY INSTITUTENew View Ivory 2012
“The U.S. economy is surrounded and unable to break through enemy lines.”
Wells Fargo Securities Economic GroupSeptember 7, 2011
What is going on?
THE IVORY INSTITUTENew View Ivory 2012
THE IVORY INSTITUTENew View Ivory 2012
THE IVORY INSTITUTENew View Ivory 2012
THE IVORY INSTITUTENew View Ivory 2012
THE IVORY INSTITUTENew View Ivory 2012
“We can have a hard decade or a bad century.”
Thomas Friedman
THE IVORY INSTITUTENew View Ivory 2012
“It makes no sense for China to have a better rail system than us, and Singapore having better airports than us. And we just learned that China now has the fastest supercomputer on earth – that used to be us.”
- President Barack Obama
THE IVORY INSTITUTENew View Ivory 2012
"My biggest beef is that this is part of what's happened in this country…I think we've become wussies. ... We've become a nation of wusses. The Chinese are kicking our butt in everything. If this was in China do you think the Chinese would have called off the game? People would have been marching down to the stadium, they would have walked and they would have been doing calculus on the way down.”
- Gov. Rendell
THE IVORY INSTITUTENew View Ivory 2012
THE IVORY INSTITUTENew View Ivory 2012
THE IVORY INSTITUTENew View Ivory 2012
THE IVORY INSTITUTENew View Ivory 2012
Utah’sSecretSauce
Demography is destiny
Economic diversification
Global engagement
Fiscal prudence
THE IVORY INSTITUTENew View Ivory 2012
Population Loss
NM13.2%
UT23.8%
AZ24.6%
CA10.0%
NV35.1%
OR12.0%
TX20.6%
OK8.7%
CO16.9%
WA14.1%
ID21.1%
MT9.7%
WY14.1%
ND4.7%
SD7.9%
MN7.8%
NE6.7%
KS6.1%
IA4.1%
MO7.0%
AR9.1%
LA1.4%
WI6.0%
IL3.3%
IN6.6%
OH1.6%
FL 17.6%
TN 11.5%
KY7.4%
MS4.3%
AL7.5%
GA18.3%
SC15.3%
NC 18.5%
VA13.0%
WV2.5%
PA3.4%
NY2.1%
ME4.2%
AK13.3%
HI12.3%
MA3.1%
VT2.8%
NH6.5%
RI0.4%
CT4.9%
NJ4.5%
DE14.6%
MD9.0%
MI-0.6%
15% to 25%
5% to 15%
DC5.2%
25% or more
0% to 5%U.S. Rate = 9.7%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Census
Population Percent Change: 2000-2010
THE IVORY INSTITUTENew View Ivory 2012
Source: GOPB Analysis of Bureau of Economic Analysis Data, Hachman Index
Most Diversified Economies in the Country
Index of economic diversity, U.S. = 100
THE IVORY INSTITUTENew View Ivory 2012
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
4.5 4.1 4.76.1
6.87.8
10.3 10.34
13.81
Utah Merchandise ExportsBillions of $
Source: World Trade Center Utah
THE IVORY INSTITUTENew View Ivory 2012
State of Utah Rainy Day FundCombined General and Education Funds
FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
$450
$19.5$27.1
$66.9
$146.1
$254.9
$313.4
$413.8 $418.5
$209.8
$106.0
(millions)
Source: Governor’s Office of Planning and Budget
THE IVORY INSTITUTENew View Ivory 2012
Utah Job GrowthMonthly Year Over Percent Change
August-09
Sep-09
Oct-09
Nov-09
Dec-09Jan-10
Feb-10
Mar-1
0
Apr-10
May-1
0Jun-10
Jul-10
Aug-10
Sep-10
Oct-10
Nov-10
Dec-10Jan-11
Feb-11
March
-11
Apr-11
May-1
1Jun-11
Jul-11
Aug-11
Sep-11
-5.0%
-4.0%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
-4.4%-4.1%
-3.3%-3.1%
-2.8%-2.9%
-2.3%
-1.9%
-1.4%
0.7%1.0%
1.5% 1.5% 1.5%1.2%
1.5%
0.8%
1.5%1.8%
1.6% 1.5% 1.6%
2.1%
2.5%
2.9% 2.8%
THE IVORY INSTITUTENew View Ivory 2012
Utah Labor Market IndicatorsSeptember 2011
Utah unemployment rate 7.4%U.S. unemployment rate 9.1%
Year-over Utah job growth rate 2.8%Year-over U.S. job growth rate 1.1%
# Unemployed in Utah 99,400# Discouraged workers in Utah 35,000-65,000
Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services and Salt Lake Chamber
THE IVORY INSTITUTENew View Ivory 2012
Utah Job Growth by IndustrySeptember 2010–2011
Government
Other Services
Leisure and Hospitality
Education and Health
Prof. and Business
Financial Activities
Information
Trade, Trans, Utilities
Manufacturing
Construction
Natural Resources
Total
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
-0.8
2.5
4.2
2.4
7.0
0.6
2.7
3.0
5.7
-0.4
6.2
2.8Chart Title
Year-Over Percent ChangeSource: Utah Department of Workforce Services
THE IVORY INSTITUTENew View Ivory 2012
Jan-87
Sep-87
May-88
Jan-89
Sep-89
May-90
Jan-91
Sep-91
May-92
Jan-93
Sep-93
May-94
Jan-95
Sep-95
May-96
Jan-97
Sep-97
May-98
Jan-99
Sep-99
May-00
Jan-01
Sep-01
May-02
Jan-03
Sep-03
May-04
Jan-05
Sep-05
May-06
Jan-07
Sep-07
May-08
Jan-09
Sep-09
May-10
Jan-11
Sep-11
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
Utah Weekly Unemployment Claims4-week moving average
Source: U.S. Dept of Labor, Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Data
THE IVORY INSTITUTENew View Ivory 2012
Utah’s Fastest Growing Detailed Industries(Year-over job growth shown in percentage)
- Heavy and civil engineering – 15.0%- Internet service providers – 12.4%- Computer systems design – 11.2%- Professional, scientific and technical services – 10.4%- Employment services – 8.2%- Administration support – 6.7%- Computer and electronic products – 6.5%
Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services
THE IVORY INSTITUTENew View Ivory 2012
Utah Economic Development Wins- Adobe (930)- Black Diamond Equipment (55)- ATK (820)- Litehouse (20)- Overstock (150)- ITT Corporation (2700)- Edwards Life Sciences (1,075)- Merit Medical (400)- Goldman Sachs (700)- EA Sports (100)- Royal Bank of Scotland
Source: Salt Lake Chamber of Commerce
- Pepperidge Farms (55)- NSA Center (7,000 const/300
perm) Litehouse (20)- eBay (50+)- Oracle (100)- Sephora (500)- Hershey (125)- Procter and Gamble (600)- IM Flash - Reckitt Benckiser (100+)- Incomm (100+)
Note: Job growth shown in parentheses
THE IVORY INSTITUTENew View Ivory 2012
Headwinds
European debt crisis
Political dysfunction
Housing recovery
Lower commodity prices
Consumer confidence
MENA crises
THE IVORY INSTITUTENew View Ivory 2012
Tailwinds
U.S.Two years of correction
Corporate profits
Falling labor costs
UtahDemography is destiny
Economic diversification
Global engagement
Fiscal prudence
Downtown Rising
PAC 12