Utah EconomicUpdate

May 2013Natalie Gochnour, Associate Dean

Presentation Outline

• Glum and angry

• Positive and happy

• Reflective

“You can feel the economy wants to launch, but Washington is sitting on the national mood button. We the people still feel like

children of permanently divorcing parents.”- Tom Friedman

The Great Divorce

Job Losses in Recent Recessions

Source: CalculatedRiskBlog.com and the Bureau of Labor Statistics

MedicareAverage couple retiring in 2010

• Medicare taxes paid$122K

• Medicare benefits received $387K

Source: Urban Institute

“The greatest nation on earth – the greatest nation on earth – cannot keep conducting its business by drifting from one manufactured crisis to the next. We can’t do it.”

-President Barack Obama

Yes We Can …?

Fiscal Crises Naming Conventions• Debt ceiling stand off (August 2011)

ANDREA

• Super Committee deadline (December 2011)BARRY

• Fiscal cliff negotiations (Fall 2012)CHANTEL

• Fiscal cliff (January 2013)DORIAN

• Start of sequestration (March 2013)ERIN

• Debt ceiling revisited (May 2013)FERNAD

• Next crisisGABRIELLE

Job Growth: Utah and U.S.

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012-6.0%-5.0%-4.0%-3.0%-2.0%-1.0%0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%

0.1%

-5.1%

-0.6%

2.3%3.2%

-0.6%

-4.4%

-0.7%

1.2% 1.4%

Utah U.S.

Top Five Job Growth States

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

March 2012 – March 2013

Idaho

Colorado

Texas

Utah

North Dakota

0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5%

2.4%

2.6%

3.1%

4.2%

4.4%

Year-Over Percent Change

U.S. average = 1.5%

Utah Job Growth by IndustryApril 2013

Government

Other Services

Leisure and Hospitality

Education and Health

Prof. and Business

Financial Activities

Information

Trade, Trans, Utilities

Manufacturing

Construction

Natural Resources

Total

-2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0

-1.44.3

5.93.4

4.96.0

10.4

4.62.9

3.40.0

3.5Chart Title

Year-Over Percent Change

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Utah Fiscal ChecklistBalanced Budget

RequirementLine Item Veto AAA Bond

Rating

Rainy Day Fund

AppropriationLimitation

BondLimitation

U.S. Fiscal ChecklistBalanced Budget

RequirementLine Item Veto AAA Bond

Rating

Rainy Day Fund

AppropriationLimitation

BondLimitation

Utah’s Unique Demographic Profile

In the country…

Third fastest growingHighest fertility rate

Lowest median age

Largest household sizeLong life expectancy

Rapidly diversifying

Total Fertility Rate

ArizonaOklahomaNebraska

HawaiiKansas

TexasIdaho

South DakotaAlaska

UtahU.S.

0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50

2.07

2.11

2.142.15

2.16

2.162.24

2.27

2.352.45

1.93

Source: National Vital Statistics Reports, Vol. 61, No. 1

U.S. and Ten Highest States: 2010

Median Age

KansasArizona

LouisianaGeorgia

CaliforniaIdaho

DCAlaskaTexas

UtahU.S.

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0

36.0

35.9

35.835.3

35.2

34.6

33.833.8

33.629.2

37.2

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Census Summary File 1

U.S. and Lowest Ten States: 2010

Household Size

GeorgiaArizonaAlaska

NevadaIdaho

New JerseyTexasHawaii

CaliforniaUtahU.S.

2.30 2.40 2.50 2.60 2.70 2.80 2.90 3.00 3.10

2.63

2.632.65

2.65

2.66

2.682.75

2.89

2.903.10

2.59

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Census

U.S. and Highest Ten States: 2010

Life Expectancy

Source: American Human Development Projects, Measure of America 2010-2011

Top Ten States

Arizona

Colorado

Utah

North Dakota

Massachusetts

Connecticut

New York

California

Minnesota

Hawaii

79.00 79.50 80.00 80.50 81.00 81.50

79.92 79.92

80.08

80.10

80.10 80.18

80.36 80.37

80.85 81.48

Minority Population Growth By State2000-2010

Washington

Nebraska

Vermont

Minnesota

Iowa

Idaho

Utah

Maine

New Hampshire

Nevada

U.S.

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 8048.8

50.7

51.854.3

59.8

62.5

64.866.0

67.578.1

28.8

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

2000 – 2010 Growth in Utah’s Population by Race and Ethnicity

24%

91%

78%

61%

61%

56%

48%

17%

2%

Total Population

Other

Hispanic/Latino

Native Pacific Islander

African American

Two or More Races

Asian

White

American Indian/Alaskan

Source: U.S. Census Bureau; 2010 Census.

“We can have a hard decade or a bad century.”

- Tom Friedman

Source: the dip, Seth Godin

Source: the dip, Seth Godin

“Utah is a great example of what enlightened and motivated political leadership can accomplish with a solid plan,” said Brent Pollina of Pollina Corporate Real Estate. He went on to call Utah, the “brightest star” on the American flag and the ultimate model for the rest of the country.”

-MarketWatch, Wall Street Journal

Utah the Brightest Star