The History of Political PartiesWhy is Sacramento so polarized?

HISTORICAL OVERVIEW OF AMERICAN POLITICS

Presidential Elections and the Realignment of American Politics

Americans adjust their political mood through presidential elections

1932-1964 AGE OF CLASS POLITICS

Both parties ideologically balanced

HAVESEastern WASP

Establishment (liberal)Midwestern Main Street

Establishment (conservative)

HAVE-NOTSNorthern white liberals

Southerners (conservative)Farmers (conservative)

Minorities (liberal)

1964-1988 THE CONSERVATIVE REALIGNMENT

Liberal vs. Conservative; Class politics ebbs

Southern, white, agrarian, conservative Democrats abandon their party for Republicans. The monolithic Democrat South fractures.

Northern, white, moderate/liberals leave the Republican Party. The “Rockefeller Wing” of the GOP atrophies.

Both shifts occur at the presidential level but take another generation to take effect at the local level.

ERA OF CONSERVATIVE IDEOLOGICAL POLITICS

57.1%60.6% 58.2% 59.1%

53.4%

1968 1972 1980 1984 19880%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Wallace Anderson

Reagan BushReaganNixon Nixon

Democrats: Humphrey

42.8%McGovern

37.5%Mondale

40.8%Carter41.6%

Dukakis45.6%

1980THE TRIUMPH OF

IDEOLOGICAL REALIGNMENTRonald Reagan unites the three wings of the Republican Party

Anti-Communism

Foreign PolicyAnti-CommunistsJeanne Kirkpatrick

EconomicFree Marketers

Jack Kemp

TheocraticSocial Theocrats

Jesse Helms

1992 AFTER THE FALL OF COMMUNISM

The Three wings of the Republican Party were no longer unified by Anti-Communism.

The economic and religious wings were left to wonder what they had in common.

The GOP was pulled to the right by Pat Buchanan and Christian Conservatives.

Clinton runs and wins election as a “New” Democrat.

1994-2000 THE BATTLE FOR THE CENTERSocially tolerant, small government voters define elections

1994: Republicans won by a landslide when the issues were government run healthcare, midnight basketball and Clinton’s budget (higher taxes). Voters don’t want bigger government, especially when their pocketbooks take a hit.

1996: Clinton shifts to middle by making the issues the balanced budget, Medicare, and welfare reform. Republicans shut down government and move to the right.

1998: GOP failed to gain seats in an off-year election when the Democrats controlled the Presidency due to the moralizing over Monica Lewinsky.

2000: Both sides target middle and attempt to push opposition to the ideological extremes. Closest election in 100 years.

2000-2008 THE BATTLE FOR THE CENTER CONTINUES

2004: Bush wins 255 Congressional Districts and 62 million votes were the most individual votes ever cast for anyone in history and the first president to receive a majority since George H. W. Bush in 1988.

2006: GOP loses control or the House of Representatives and the US Senate. Congressional corruption and government spending were the biggest reasons cited by voters who voted GOP in 2006 but switched to Democrat in 2008.

2008: Republicans lose 3 congressional seats in “safe” Republican seats that President Bush carried by double digits. All three Republican candidates had more than enough resources to mount successful campaigns.

California’s Growing Decline-To-State VotersVoter Registration Trends 1992-Present

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

1992 1996 2000 2004 2007Year

DemocratRepublicanDTS

Voter Registration Trends 1992-Present

2008

When you advocate in Sacramento it might be necessary to have two different messages

• One message for Republicans

• A different one for Democrats

Groups that Republicans act favorably to:

• Business groups• Taxpayer organizations• Church leadership• Public safety leaders• Parental rights groups• Families with children• Families Values Groups• Tribal Interests • Litigation Reform Groups•Political Contributors

Groups Democrats act favorably to:

• Labor Unions• Trial Lawyers• Anti-Poverty Groups• Environmental Organizations• Woman’s Rights Groups• Gay Rights Organizations• Tribal Interests• Political Contributors

Effective Lobbying Engages the Senses

• Vision 75%• Hearing 13%• Touch < 5%• Taste < 5%• Smell < 5%

The best advocacy is in-person with an easy to understand visual presentation by a friend. The most effective lobbying entails requires a follow-up.

Jim Brulte, PartnerCalifornia Strategies10681 Foothill Blvd.Suite 340Rancho Cucamonga, CA 91730

(909) 945-2250 (O)(909) 945-2966 (F)(916) 919-3097 (C)(909) 922-5039 (H)

SenatorJim31@aol.com