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Report from Credit Suisse on the impact of a Yes vote in Scotland
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DISCLOSURE APPENDIX AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS, AND THE STATUS OF NON-US ANALYSTS. US Disclosure: Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
CREDIT SUISSE SECURITIES RESEARCH & ANALYTICS BEYOND INFORMATION®
Client-Driven Solutions, Insights, and Access
08 September 2014
Global
Equity Research
Investment Strategy
Global Equity Strategy STRATEGY
Impact of a Yes vote in Scotland
We assume a 25% probability that Scotland will vote yes to independence in the referendum on September 18
th. While polls such as that released by YouGov on
7th September point to a small majority (51%) in favour of independence, other
polls continue to point to a majority in favour of the No campaign. In our view, markets tend to overreact to political tail risk, and thus may end up pricing in a 35% probability of a yes vote.
What happens if the Scottish electorate votes yes?
Both CS economists and ourselves have written on the risks posed by a yes vote in previous pieces, but in summary we would highlight the following:
Risk of an economic crisis: In our opinion Scotland would fall into a deep recession. We believe deposit flight is both highly likely and highly problematic (with banks assets of 12x GDP) and should the BoE move to guarantee Scottish deposits, we expect it to extract a high fiscal and regulatory price (probably insisting on a primary budget surplus). The re-domiciling of the financial sector and UK public service jobs, as well as a legal dispute over North Sea oil, would further accelerate any downturn. In our opinion, as North Sea oil production slows, we estimate that the non-oil economy would need a 10% to 20% devaluation to restore competitiveness. This would require a 5% to 10% fall in wages, driven by a steep rise in unemployment.
Currency options: We believe there is a 50% chance of the Scottish currency falling in value, and potentially significantly: of this, we place a 40% probability on a peg to the pound (which we think would ultimately not hold) and a 10% probability on a freely floating currency. We place a 50% probability on a currency arrangement which would avoid devaluation against sterling: of this, we place a 25% probability on a formal currency union and a 25% probability on a Hong Kong-style currency board. We see a <1% chance of a Euro peg.
Risk of a constitutional crisis: We believe a yes vote would result in a constitutional crisis until Scottish MPs are excluded from Westminster. When they are, the Conservatives would have an ongoing electoral advantage in the UK.
Impact on sterling: The UK current account deficit is 4.4% of GDP and as uncertainty weighs on portfolio and FDI inflows, we see a risk of sterling weakening to £/$1.50-1.55. In addition, a UK rate hike would be postponed until after the election, which could ultimately prove positive for gilts (government debt to GDP would rise to 81% were the Scottish government to renege on their debt, but UK fiscal policy would be tighter following a yes vote).
Impacted stocks: In our opinion exporters should benefit (Diageo, Pernod-Ricard), whereas domestic plays (especially banks) could suffer (RBS, Lloyds, TSB). The following Scottish exposed stocks have outperformed the market and their sector YTD: Wood Group. Credit Suisse has a Delta One basket on this theme (Ticker: CSERSCOT), including the following stocks which have outperformed their sector and the market YTD: Weir Group and FirstGroup.
Research Analysts
Andrew Garthwaite
44 20 7883 6477
Marina Pronina
44 20 7883 6476
Robert Griffiths
44 20 7883 8885
Nicolas Wylenzek
44 20 7883 6480
Richard Kersley
44 20 7888 0313
Ashlee Ramanathan
44 20 7883 9934
08 September 2014
Global Equity Strategy 2
Impact of a yes vote in Scotland The latest polls have shown a sharp rise in the support for Scottish independence. The
most recent YouGov poll, published in yesterday's Sunday Times, showed 51% of
respondents in favour of independence, up from 39% as recently as August 7th.
Figure 1: A majority of respondents who expressed a view are now for independence
Source: YouGov
Not all polls have registered such a dramatic pick up in support for the Yes campaign: a
poll of polls compiled by the non-partisan group What Scotland Thinks.org still has the No
campaign ahead with 53% compared to 47% for the Yes campaign. There seems to be a
wide variation in the polls (YouGov gives the Yes campaign a lead of 2 points, while Ipsos
MORI have the independence campaign 14 points behind).
This referendum is a particularly difficult one for pollsters to call, owing to the number of
undecided voters (which YouGov puts at 6% in their most recent poll), the extension of the
franchise to 16 and 17 year olds, and the inherent difficulty of calling such Yes/No votes.
In the 1995 referendum on independence for Quebec, for example, the Yes campaign had
a 5 point lead going into the vote, but ended up losing what was a tight vote by 1.5%.
Similarly, the Alternative Vote referendum held in the UK in 2011 saw polls out by around
10 percentage points. Put simply, pollsters are much better at calling general elections,
where respondents can be asked how they voted last time, than such one off, binary votes.
Our view is that there is a 25% probability of a vote in favour of independence and that the
market may well end up pricing in a higher probability of 30% to 35% (a higher probability
because the markets typically overreact to the opaque nature of such political events). A
fund manager may not want to end up the day after the referendum with the task of having
to explain to trustees why they owned Scottish stocks and thus would rather over-discount
the risk than look foolish in front of trustees).
It is clearly hard to know what is being priced into the stock market but Mark Freshney, our
UK utilities analyst, believes that in the case of SSE (where 45% of assets are in Scotland)
the stock is pricing in c.27% probability of a Yes vote, in line our own assumption (and that
is rather pessimistically assuming a 35% devaluation post a yes vote, which would take
365p off the share price – see Mark's piece SSE – Referendum risk to be addressed, 15
August 2014).
61%
57%
53%
49%
39%
43%
47%
51%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
65%
07-Aug 14-Aug 21-Aug 28-Aug 04-Sep
No Yes
Should Scotland be an independent country? (ex. wouldn't votes and don't knows)
08 September 2014
Global Equity Strategy 3
What happens if there is a Yes vote?
Following a yes vote, the UK and Scottish governments would then negotiate the terms of
departure, with the Scottish government having set 24 March 2016 as a possible
independence day. Our economists have written on this issue in their piece Breaking up is
never easy, 1 April 2014.
The issues to be resolved are numerous, but primary among them is Scotland's currency
arrangements. The independence campaign have been clear that their preference is for a
sterling currency union with the rest of the UK, something clearly in Scotland's interests
given that 70% of their exports go to the UK.
The UK government (and opposition parties) have been equally unambiguous, however,
that an independent Scotland would not be allowed to enter a currency union with the rest
of the UK, with the experience of the euro area having made plain the potential problems
which a currency union without a full fiscal and banking union can create.
Given this position, and assuming the British government sticks to it through a period of
negotiation, redenomination risk will hang over Scotland, and Scottish assets. As occurred
in peripheral Europe when the future of the euro appeared at risk, it would seem highly
likely, in our view, that there would be immediate large scale deposit flight, unless the
Bank of England stepped in to guarantee Scottish bank deposits.
Scottish bank assets are over 12x national output (even Iceland's banking assets in 2007
were, according to the Bank of England, 'only' 8x GDP), A newly independent Central
Bank of Scotland would not have the reserves available to provide a credible deposit
guarantee scheme.
Figure 2: Scottish banking assets are 1200% of GDP
Source: Bank of England
Significant deposit flight would require Scottish banks to offer much higher deposit rates,
which would in turn increase borrowing costs for Scottish entities and individuals. This, in
our view, would increase the risk of a severe economic downturn in Scotland post-
independence.
Moreover, with North Sea oil output in decline (with the Office for Budget Responsibility
calculating that output has declined by an average of 7.8% per year since 1999 and recent
estimates by Sir Ian Wood putting North Sea oil reserves at 15-16.5bn barrels versus
estimates by the Scottish government of 24bn barrels), it is clear that the non-oil
manufacturing base in Scotland would need to be clearly competitive in order to attract in
capital. In our opinion, this would require a real effective exchange rate depreciation of as
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Scotland (2012) UK ex Scotland(2012)
Iceland (2007) Ireland (2007) Cyprus (2007) Spain (2007) US (2007)
Banking sector assets, % GDP
08 September 2014
Global Equity Strategy 4
much as 10% to 20% and that could either be via currency depreciation or, if Scotland
maintains an exchange rate at parity with sterling, via a 10%-20% decline in Scottish unit
labour costs. Barring a productivity miracle, we believe this would in turn require a severe
economic recession (with abnormally high unemployment typically required in order for
nominal wages to fall).
What are the currency options?
We on the global strategy team see a 50% probability of a currency regime in which
Scotland can avoid a significant devaluation relative to sterling. Within this, we place a
25% probability on a formal sterling union and a 25% probability on a currency board.
■ A formal sterling union between the UK and Scotland: (25% probability)
The most likely course of action would be for the Bank of England to step in to provide
some temporary support for Scottish deposits. The Governor of the Bank of England, Mark
Carney, said the Bank of England would be 'the continuing authority for financial stability
for some time' if there was a yes vote. Such support could either be temporary while
negotiations took place, or longer lasting.
If Scotland formed a sterling union, then it's likely that the UK would extract a high price in
terms of potentially severe fiscal and regulatory commitments (i.e. Scotland may have to
run a primary budget surplus, and perhaps those banks that remained domiciled there
would have to have particularly onerous liquidity and capital ratios). In this sense,
submitting to a formal sterling union would see Scotland forego some significant plans of
its policymaking independence.
With a budget deficit of c8.2% of GDP in 2012/13 (according to the Government
Expenditure and Revenue Scotland), the fiscal squeeze could be very significant.
Moreover, it would seem that a Scottish sterling at parity would become increasingly
overvalued as North Sea oil revenues fell.
This would require Scottish deflation to maintain competitiveness in the non-oil sector but
such a fall in wages can realistically only be achieved via high unemployment. While a
formal sterling union has been dismissed by the UK government in the run up to the
referendum (for obvious political reasons), we think that Scotland would have some
bargaining power (i.e. in return it could agree to take on its share of UK government debt).
■ A new Scottish currency backed by a currency board: (25% probability)
Under this scenario, there would be an extended bank holiday after the yes vote during
which the Bank of England would temporarily guarantee deposits but during this period
sterling based in Scottish banks becomes a new Scottish Pound. The set up could be a
currency board similar to that in Hong Kong, whereby the monetary base has to be at least
100% backed by foreign exchange reserves.
The problem with a currency board is that it cannot be lender of last resort. Moreover, if
there was deposit flight, as would seem likely, there would then have to be a contraction in
base money, which would likely trigger a sharp recession. This works in Hong Kong
because wages can and do decline when there is capital flight, but it seems hard to
envisage Scotland with such labour market flexibility.
Again, the problem would emerge that as North Sea oil production moves lower, the
Scottish Pound would be increasingly overvalued and thus domestic deflation would be
required. It is possible that Scotland would decide to use sterling but have neither a formal
union nor currency board (in the same way as Zimbabwe uses the US dollar, for example)
but again there would be no central bank to act as a lender of last resort.
08 September 2014
Global Equity Strategy 5
We assume a 50% probability that Scotland will enter a currency arrangement which will
lead to a potentially significant devaluation. Within this, we see a 40% chance of a (short-
term) peg against sterling and a 10% chance of a free float.
■ A new currency pegged (at least initially) to sterling (40% probability)
Under this scenario, a new currency would emerge which would initially peg itself to
sterling. In all likelihood, a very high interest premium would be required. Such a high cost
of capital would, in our view, ultimately prove unpalatable to the domestic economy, and it
seems likely that Scotland would seek competitiveness via the relatively easier route of
devaluation (perhaps 20% or so).
The advantage of a currency peg (and not a currency board) is that the Central Bank of
Scotland could then act as lender of last resort, and the exchange rate can move to avoid
the need for domestic deflation. In effect, Scotland would then have monetary and fiscal
sovereignty. The disadvantages are the transactions costs as well as the real rate
premium that markets would price in until the new Central Bank has some degree of
credibility.
■ Full float (10% probability)
A full float would give monetary autonomy to Scotland and might allow a Central Bank of
Scotland to build up FX reserves, and the new Scottish Pound to attract capital. The cost
would be a much higher real rate as the market would take time to trust the inflation
fighting credentials of a Scottish Central Bank.
■ Apply to join the Euro, or a Euro peg (less than 1% probability)
In our view, this would make little economic sense as 70% of Scotland's exports are to the
UK.
In summary, it seems to us that an attempt to maintain the exchange rate with sterling
around the current level would result in a severe Scottish economic contraction. On
balance therefore we think that there is a 50% chance of a 10% to 20% devaluation of the
new Scottish currency post a yes vote.
Other challenges
The currency is only one of a number of challenges which a newly independent Scotland
would have to resolve. Scotland would face a very difficult economic environment, in our
view, for the following reasons:
Scotland is overexposed to the financial services industry. Financials services are
13% of GDP and 7% of employment (and probably an even greater proportion of the tax
base). There is a risk of some of the financial services companies re-domiciling to the rest
of the UK, especially if the vast majority of their business is outside of Scotland (with one
of the major insurers having already declared its intention to do so were Scotland to vote
for independence);
UK public sector jobs. According to official statistics, the public sector accounts for just
over 22% of employment, around 4.5 percentage points above the national average. It
seems likely that a UK government would look to bring some of these jobs back to rest of
the UK. Clearly this would apply in particular to defence jobs (with a second new aircraft
carrier to be built by the UK government, and with the nuclear submarine fleet being based
in Faslane on the Clyde).
North Sea oil. There is no fixed approach to splitting the proceeds of North Sea oil, with
any agreement on this likely to form a central part of any negotiations. Using a
geographical split along agreed fishing boundaries would give Scotland around 90% of the
UK's oil resources. However, there are others who argue that this UK resource should be
08 September 2014
Global Equity Strategy 6
split on a per capita basis, giving Scotland a share of revenue commensurate with its
population share of around 9%. We could see a length legal dispute.
Impact on UK gilts: Scotland accounts for 7.7% of the UK's total national income, with a
Gross Value Add per capita around 9% below that of England. The UK Treasury has
committed that it will guarantee all government bonds issued by the UK, at least until the
referendum. Scotland's First Minister, Alex Salmond, has suggested that if no accord is
reached on sharing sterling, Scotland may not take on a share of the stock of outstanding
debt. Were this to occur, the residual UK's stock of government debt would rise from
74.5% of GDP currently, to 80.9% once Scotland's GDP contribution is stripped out (this
would still leave government debt to GDP below that of France, Japan or the US (where
total government debt to GDP is on IMF data is 89.5%, 137.1% and 82.3% of GDP
respectively).
It seems probable that Scotland would agree to take over some share of national debt in
return for formal currency union. Indeed, it might be possible to conceive of quite a positive
environment for UK gilts. If Scotland were to return to a balanced budget within a currency
union, then the aggregate fiscal position of the UK would improve. This is especially so if
as a result of the Scottish Yes vote a Conservative government (which wants to balance
the UK budget much more quickly than that of Labour) were to be voted back post the
change in composition of parliament in 2016.
Political implications
Westminster: The political implications of a yes vote are potentially considerable. Labour
control 40 out of the 59 seats in Scotland, and without Scottish MPs, the Conservatives
would have a majority of 51% of seats in the UK parliament, all else equal. This would
substantially strengthen the electoral advantage of the Conservatives given that 16% of
Labour's MPs represent Scottish constituencies.
The Conservative-led government currently in power has committed to hold the next
General Election in May 2015, which would be in the midst of negotiations about the
separation of the Scotland from the UK. The General Election might need to be delayed,
otherwise the new government could be supported by MPs from a completely separate
country, which would be constitutionally difficult. To delay an election, however, would
need a change in the Parliament Act (which would require a two thirds majority).
Cameron has pledged 'emphatically' not to resign on a Yes vote. If he did, then the UK
could find itself with a more Eurosceptic Prime Minister. The loss of Scotland, which tends
to be more pro-EU than England, would also increase the prospect of the UK leaving the
EU if a referendum is held as planned in 2017.
Elsewhere in Europe: The obvious area of concern would be Spain and Catalonia but
any link would be somewhat tenuous given only a non-binding referendum is currently
planned. There might be some emotive rise in spreads as it would remind investors that
within the euro area economic and fiscal union has taken place before political union.
A recent example of these ongoing political dislocations was the recent French opinion poll
which suggested that Marine Le Pen (who favours an exit from the Euro) would beat
President Hollande in the 2017 Presidential Election by 54% to 46%.
The dominant issue for European spreads, however, very much remains the ECB's recent
move toward QE and the likely €1trn expansion in its balance sheet (see Is European QE
in the price?, 5 September 2014).
08 September 2014
Global Equity Strategy 7
Economic implications
Sterling: the combination of political uncertainty especially between May 2015 and March
2016, a tighter aggregate fiscal policy and a slowdown in growth (owing to a contraction in
Scotland), would appear to make sterling, even excluding Scotland, more vulnerable. The
UK has a current account deficit of 4.4% of GDP and that makes the UK reliant on both
FDI and portfolio inflows that would surely slow. This would be especially so if the resultant
political changes made an EU exit in 2017 more likely. Our long term view has been
sterling/dollar should be c.£/$1.50; we believe 1.55 is quite possible in the immediate
aftermath of a Yes vote.
UK interest rates: In our view, a yes vote would postpone a UK rate hike until after the
next election not least because of the risk of a recession in Scotland. In addition, macro
momentum within the UK is showing signs of slowing with falling wages for the first time in
5 years, CPI inflation at 1.6%, signs of a rollover in housing with the RICs Sales Survey at
an 18 month low, the weakest PMI manufacturing new orders since April 2013 and the
weakest new export orders since June 2013 would back this up.
Scottish stocks
In our opinion investors tend to overreact to political uncertainty and it is very likely that
over the next one and a half weeks some of the Scottish exposed stocks will see some
further de-rating. We suspect the time to buy the Scottish stocks is 2 days before the polls
(the point at which we expect the market has fully overreacted). As stated earlier, SSE is
pricing in a 27% probability of a Yes vote, according to our UK utilities analyst.
Our thematic research team put together a basket of stocks which are exposed to the
repercussions of a possible 'Yes' vote (Bloomberg ticker: CSERSCOT Index). This basket
has been formulated taking the 20 most liquid companies from the "Scotsie 100" an index
of the 100 Scottish stocks as of the beginning of 2014. We refer to the academic paper by
Paul Marsh and Scott Evans entitled The Scotsie100: Sixty years of Scottish stocks. This
paper looks in detail at the performance of Scottish listed stocks over the last 60 years and
looks at the feasibility of re-establishing a Scottish Stock Exchange.
Of these the following stocks have outperformed the market as well as their Pan European
sector peers YTD: Weir Group, Scottish Mortgage, Wood Group, Templeton Emerging
Markets, Murray International, and Personal Assets Trust.
Figure 3: Thematic team's Scottish basket
Source: MSCI, IBES, Thomson Reuters, Credit Suisse HOLT, Credit Suisse research
NameYTD perf rel UK
mkt
YTD perf rel
European
peers
Absrel to
Industry
rel to mkt %
above/below
average
Abs
rel to mkt %
above/below
average
FCY DY
Price, %
change to
best
3m EPS 3m Sales
Consensus
recommendation
(1=Buy; 5=Sell)
Credit Suisse
rating
Sse 9% -6% 12.9 82% 13% 5.0 32% 3.5 5.9 -9.4 0.1 -4.2 3.2 Outperform
Standard Life 14% 12% 15.7 139% 39% 2.4 29% na 4.1 -32.2 -3.3 -3.0 2.6 Outperform
Royal Bank Of Sctl.Gp. 1% -1% 11.5 98% -28% 0.7 -64% na 0.0 26.9 35.1 0.7 3.3 Underperform
Aberdeen Asset Man. -12% -14% 13.2 94% -8% 4.7 55% na 4.0 29.4 -2.5 -1.7 2.4 Neutral
Weir Group 26% 29% 17.8 122% 49% 3.9 40% 4.8 1.7 57.2 -3.5 -2.2 2.6 Outperform
Aggreko -4% -1% 19.3 104% 18% 3.9 -22% 4.0 1.7 -7.5 -3.4 1.2 3.0 Underperform
Scottish Mortgage 11% 9% na na na 0.2 -76% na na na na na 3.0 Not Rated
Alliance Trust 0% -2% na na na 0.9 -9% na na na na na 3.0 Not Rated
Wood Group (John) 9% 5% 11.7 85% -2% 2.5 -14% 5.6 2.2 29.1 -3.5 0.6 2.4 Outperform
Templeton Emrg.Mkts.It. 15% 13% na na na 1.0 15% na na na na na 4.0 Not Rated
Stagecoach Group -5% -2% 13.5 82% 93% 14.9 -21% 6.3 2.7 -37.9 0.2 -0.8 2.5 Not Rated
First Group 0% 3% 13.0 78% 24% 1.3 -85% 3.2 1.3 -78.1 0.7 -3.2 2.4 Not Rated
Murray Intl. 5% 3% na na na 1.1 8% na na na na na 2.0 Not Rated
Edinburgh Inv.Trust -1% -3% na na na 1.0 -3% na na na na na 4.0 Not Rated
Aberforth Smcos. -3% -5% na na na 0.9 -8% na na na na na 2.0 Not Rated
Monks Inv.Trust -2% -4% na na na 0.9 -5% na na na na na 2.0 Not Rated
Murray Income -4% -5% na na na 1.1 0% na na na na na na Not Rated
Personal Assets 5% 3% na na na 1.0 -9% na na na na na na Not Rated
-----P/E (12m fwd) ------ 2014e Momentum, %------ P/B ------- HOLT2014e, %
08 September 2014
Global Equity Strategy 8
We believe the general risk is highest in the following three categories of stocks:
(1) Stocks with a meaningful percentage of assets or revenue coming from
Scotland. These include SSE as 45% of its assets are located in Scotland as well
as RBS, TSB and Lloyds, which have 6.3% and 3.6% (LBC including TSB) of their
loans in Scotland, respectively. In addition banks would also be exposed to a rise
in funding costs and an increase in Scottish NPLs.
(2) North Sea oil related stocks - There will potentially be a legal dispute about
ownership of oil reserves in the North Sea. In addition a significant proportion of
OFS assets are located in Scotland (e.g. 18% and 14% of Wood Group's and
Amec's group revenues come from Scotland, respectively).
(3) Stocks with production facilities in Scotland - This group of stocks could
initially be affected owing to uncertainty over payment systems, but should benefit
if the "Scottish sterling" devalues. 28% and 20% of Diageo and Pernod-Ricard's
production (35% and 30% of profits), respectively are sourced from Scotland.
Below we show the above discussed stocks with high Scottish exposure. Of these Wood
Group, SSE and RBS outperformed their peers as well as the market.
Figure 4: Stocks exposed to Scotland
Source: MSCI, IBES, Thomson Reuters, Credit Suisse HOLT, Credit Suisse research
NameYTD price perf rel
peer group (%)
YTD price perf rel
market (%)Abs
rel to
Industry
rel to mkt %
above/below
average
Abs
rel to mkt %
above/below
average
FCY DY
Price, %
change to
best
3m EPS 3m Sales Credit Suisse
rating
Wood Group (John) 5% 9% 11.7 85% -2% 2.5 -14% 5.6 2.2 29.1 -3.5 0.6 2.4 Outperform
Amec -4% 0% 12.4 91% 2% 2.9 -26% 7.7 4.1 -15.1 -7.9 -5.3 2.4 Neutral
Petrofac -15% -11% 9.1 66% -31% 2.8 -55% 1.8 3.6 15.8 -4.5 -1.2 2.2 Neutral
Diageo -13% -11% 18.0 95% 25% 6.5 6% 2.4 2.9 -29.0 -6.2 -3.3 2.7 Neutral
Pernod-Ricard 4% 7% 17.6 93% 31% 2.1 -6% 6.5 1.9 -38.8 0.6 -0.1 2.7 Underperform
Royal Bank Of Sctl.Gp. -1% 1% 11.5 98% -28% 0.7 -64% na 0.0 26.9 35.1 0.7 3.3 Underperform
Lloyds Banking Group -9% -8% 9.5 81% -39% 1.4 -58% na 1.7 6.0 7.5 1.6 2.3 Neutral
Sse -6% 9% 12.9 82% 13% 5.0 32% 3.5 5.9 -9.4 0.1 -4.2 3.2 Outperform
Consensus
recommendation
(1=Buy; 5=Sell)
-----P/E (12m fwd) ------ 2014e Momentum, %------ P/B ------- HOLT2014e, %
08 September 2014
Global Equity Strategy 9
Companies Mentioned (Price as of 07-Sep-2014)
AMEC (AMEC.L, 1104.0p) Aberdeen Asset Management (ADN.L, 446.4p) Aggreko (AGGK.L, 1680.0p) Diageo (DGE.L, 1817.5p) Lloyds Banking Group (LLOY.L, 74.0p) Pernod-Ricard (PERP.PA, €90.06) Petrofac (PFC.L, 1102.0p) Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS.L, 347.0p) SSE (SSE.L, 1511.0p) Standard Life (SL.L, 416.5p) Weir Group (WEIR.L, 2719.0p) Wood Group (WG.L, 760.0p)
Disclosure Appendix
Important Global Disclosures
The analysts identified in this report each certify, with respect to the companies or securities that the individual analyzes, that (1) the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his or her personal views about all of the subject companies and securities and (2) no part of his or her compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
The analyst(s) responsible for preparing this research report received Compensation that is based upon various factors including Credit Suisse's total revenues, a portion of which are generated by Credit Suisse's investment banking activities
As of December 10, 2012 Analysts’ stock rating are defined as follows:
Outperform (O) : The stock’s total return is expected to outperform the relevant benchmark*over the next 12 months.
Neutral (N) : The stock’s total return is expected to be in line with the relevant benchmark* over the next 12 months.
Underperform (U) : The stock’s total return is expected to underperform the relevant benchmark* over the next 12 months.
*Relevant benchmark by region: As of 10th December 2012, Japanese ratings are based on a stock’s total r eturn relative to the analyst's coverage universe which consists of all companies covered by the analyst within the relevant sector, with Outperforms representing the most attractiv e, Neutrals the less attractive, and Underperforms the least attractive investment opportunities. As of 2nd October 2012, U.S. and Canadian as well as European ratings are based on a stock’s total return relative to the analyst's coverage universe which consists of all companies covered by the analyst within the relevant sector, with Outperforms representing the most attractive, Neutrals the less attractive, and Underperforms the least attractive investment opportunities. For Latin Ame rican and non-Japan Asia stocks, ratings are based on a stock’s total return relative to the average total return of the relevant country or regional benchmark; prior to 2nd October 2012 U.S. and Canadian ratings were based on (1) a stock’s absolute total return potential to its current share price and (2) the relative attractiv eness of a stock’s total return potential within an analyst’s coverage universe. For Australian and New Zealand stocks, 12 -month rolling yield is incorporated in the absolute total return calculation and a 15% and a 7.5% threshold replace the 10-15% level in the Outperform and Underperform stock rating definitions, respectively. The 15% and 7.5% thresholds replace the +10 -15% and -10-15% levels in the Neutral stock rating definition, respectively. Prior to 10th December 2012, Japanese ratings were based on a stock’s total return relative to the average total return of the relevant country or regional benchmark.
Restricted (R) : In certain circumstances, Credit Suisse policy and/or applicable law and regulations preclude certain types of communications, including an investment recommendation, during the course of Credit Suisse's engagement in an investment banking transaction and in certain other circumstances.
Volatility Indicator [V] : A stock is defined as volatile if the stock price has moved up or down by 20% or more in a month in at least 8 of the past 24 months or the analyst expects significant volatility going forward.
Analysts’ sector weightings are distinct from analysts’ stock ratings and are based on the analyst’s expectations for the fundamentals and/or valuation of the sector* relative to the group’s historic fundamentals and/or valuation:
Overweight : The analyst’s expectation for the sector’s fundamentals and/or valuation is favorable over the next 12 months.
Market Weight : The analyst’s expectation for the sector’s fundamentals and/or valuation is neutral over the next 12 months.
Underweight : The analyst’s expectation for the sector’s fundamentals and/or valuation is cautious over the next 12 months.
*An analyst’s coverage sector consists of all companies covered by the analyst within the relevant sector. An analyst may cover multiple sectors.
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Global Equity Strategy 10
Credit Suisse's distribution of stock ratings (and banking clients) is:
Global Ratings Distribution
Rating Versus universe (%) Of which banking clients (%)
Outperform/Buy* 44% (54% banking clients)
Neutral/Hold* 40% (51% banking clients)
Underperform/Sell* 13% (44% banking clients)
Restricted 3%
*For purposes of the NYSE and NASD ratings distribution disclosure requirements, our stock ratings of Outperform, Neutral, and Underperform most closely correspond to Buy, Hold, and Sell, respectively; however, the meanings are not the same, as our stock ratings are determined on a relative basis. (Please refer to definitions above.) An investor's decision to buy or sell a security should be based on investment objectives, current holdings, and other individual factors.
Credit Suisse’s policy is to update research reports as it deems appropriate, based on developments with the subject company, the sector or the market that may have a material impact on the research views or opinions stated herein.
Credit Suisse's policy is only to publish investment research that is impartial, independent, clear, fair and not misleading. For more detail please refer to Credit Suisse's Policies for Managing Conflicts of Interest in connection with Investment Research: http://www.csfb.com/research and analytics/disclaimer/managing_conflicts_disclaimer.html
Credit Suisse does not provide any tax advice. Any statement herein regarding any US federal tax is not intended or written to be used, and cannot be used, by any taxpayer for the purposes of avoiding any penalties.
See the Companies Mentioned section for full company names
The subject company (DGE.L, LLOY.L, WEIR.L, SSE.L, RBS.L, SL.L, ADN.L) currently is, or was during the 12-month period preceding the date of distribution of this report, a client of Credit Suisse.
Credit Suisse provided investment banking services to the subject company (DGE.L, LLOY.L, RBS.L) within the past 12 months.
Credit Suisse provided non-investment banking services to the subject company (RBS.L, SL.L, ADN.L) within the past 12 months
Credit Suisse has managed or co-managed a public offering of securities for the subject company (DGE.L, RBS.L) within the past 12 months.
Credit Suisse has received investment banking related compensation from the subject company (DGE.L, LLOY.L, RBS.L) within the past 12 months
Credit Suisse expects to receive or intends to seek investment banking related compensation from the subject company (DGE.L, LLOY.L, WEIR.L, SSE.L, PERP.PA, RBS.L, SL.L, ADN.L) within the next 3 months.
Credit Suisse has received compensation for products and services other than investment banking services from the subject company (RBS.L, SL.L, ADN.L) within the past 12 months
As of the end of the preceding month, Credit Suisse beneficially own 1% or more of a class of common equity securities of (DGE.L, AMEC.L).
For other important disclosures concerning companies featured in this report, including price charts, please visit the website at https://rave.credit-suisse.com/disclosures or call +1 (877) 291-2683.
Important Regional Disclosures
Singapore recipients should contact Credit Suisse AG, Singapore Branch for any matters arising from this research report.
The analyst(s) involved in the preparation of this report have not visited the material operations of the subject company (PFC.L, DGE.L, LLOY.L, AGGK.L, WEIR.L, AMEC.L, SSE.L, PERP.PA, WG.L, RBS.L, SL.L, ADN.L) within the past 12 months
Restrictions on certain Canadian securities are indicated by the following abbreviations: NVS--Non-Voting shares; RVS--Restricted Voting Shares; SVS--Subordinate Voting Shares.
Individuals receiving this report from a Canadian investment dealer that is not affiliated with Credit Suisse should be advised that this report may not contain regulatory disclosures the non-affiliated Canadian investment dealer would be required to make if this were its own report.
For Credit Suisse Securities (Canada), Inc.'s policies and procedures regarding the dissemination of equity research, please visit http://www.csfb.com/legal_terms/canada_research_policy.shtml.
Credit Suisse Securities (Europe) Limited (Credit Suisse) acts as broker to (SSE.L, WG.L).
The following disclosed European company/ies have estimates that comply with IFRS: (PFC.L, DGE.L, LLOY.L, WEIR.L, SSE.L, PERP.PA, WG.L, RBS.L, SL.L, ADN.L).
Credit Suisse has acted as lead manager or syndicate member in a public offering of securities for the subject company (DGE.L, LLOY.L, SSE.L, WG.L, RBS.L, ADN.L) within the past 3 years.
As of the date of this report, Credit Suisse acts as a market maker or liquidity provider in the equities securities that are the subject of this report.
Principal is not guaranteed in the case of equities because equity prices are variable.
Commission is the commission rate or the amount agreed with a customer when setting up an account or at any time after that.
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Global Equity Strategy 11
To the extent this is a report authored in whole or in part by a non-U.S. analyst and is made available in the U.S., the following are important disclosures regarding any non-U.S. analyst contributors: The non-U.S. research analysts listed below (if any) are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA. The non-U.S. research analysts listed below may not be associated persons of CSSU and therefore may not be subject to the NASD Rule 2711 and NYSE Rule 472 restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.
Credit Suisse Securities (Europe) Limited . Andrew Garthwaite ; Marina Pronina ; Robert Griffiths ; Nicolas Wylenzek ; Richard Kersley ; Ashlee Ramanathan
Important MSCI Disclosures
The MSCI sourced information is the exclusive property of Morgan Stanley Capital International Inc. (MSCI). Without prior written permission of MSCI, this information and any other MSCI intellectual property may not be reproduced, re-disseminated or used to create and financial products, including any indices. This information is provided on an "as is" basis. The user assumes the entire risk of any use made of this information. MSCI, its affiliates and any third party involved in, or related to, computing or compiling the information hereby expressly disclaim all warranties of originality, accuracy, completeness, merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose with respect to any of this information. Without limiting any of the foregoing, in no event shall MSCI, any of its affiliates or any third party involved in, or related to, computing or compiling the information have any liability for any damages of any kind. MSCI, Morgan Stanley Capital International and the MSCI indexes are services marks of MSCI and its affiliates.
The Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS) was developed by and is the exclusive property of Morgan Stanley Capital International Inc. and Standard & Poor’s. GICS is a service mark of MSCI and S&P and has been licensed for use by Credit Suisse.
Important Credit Suisse HOLT Disclosures
With respect to the analysis in this report based on the Credit Suisse HOLT methodology, Credit Suisse certifies that (1) the views expressed in this report accurately reflect the Credit Suisse HOLT methodology and (2) no part of the Firm’s compensation was, is, or will be directly related to the specific views disclosed in this report.
The Credit Suisse HOLT methodology does not assign ratings to a security. It is an analytical tool that involves use of a set of proprietary quantitative algorithms and warranted value calculations, collectively called the Credit Suisse HOLT valuation model, that are consistently applied to all the companies included in its database. Third-party data (including consensus earnings estimates) are systematically translated into a number of default algorithms available in the Credit Suisse HOLT valuation model. The source financial statement, pricing, and earnings data provided by outside data vendors are subject to quality control and may also be adjusted to more closely measure the underlying economics of firm performance. The adjustments provide consistency when analyzing a single company across time, or analyzing multiple companies across industries or national borders. The default scenario that is produced by the Credit Suisse HOLT valuation model establishes the baseline valuation for a security, and a user then may adjust the default variables to produce alternative scenarios, any of which could occur.
Additional information about the Credit Suisse HOLT methodology is available on request.
The Credit Suisse HOLT methodology does not assign a price target to a security. The default scenario that is produced by the Credit Suisse HOLT valuation model establishes a warranted price for a security, and as the third-party data are updated, the warranted price may also change. The default variable may also be adjusted to produce alternative warranted prices, any of which could occur.
CFROI®, HOLT, HOLTfolio, ValueSearch, AggreGator, Signal Flag and “Powered by HOLT” are trademarks or service marks or registered trademarks or registered service marks of Credit Suisse or its affiliates in the United States and other countries. HOLT is a corporate performance and valuation advisory service of Credit Suisse.
For Credit Suisse disclosure information on other companies mentioned in this report, please visit the website at https://rave.credit-suisse.com/disclosures or call +1 (877) 291-2683.
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Global Equity Strategy 12
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Scotland.docx
