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Leading countries of the developing world are together reshaping global power dynamics a new era of human development progress, says “The Rise of the South: Human Progress in a Diverse World,” the 2013 Human Development Report, launched by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) here today. “The rise of the South is unprecedented in its speed and scale. Never in history have the living conditions and prospects of so many people changed so dramatically and so fast,” says the Report. “The South as a whole is driving global economic growth and societal change for the first time in centuries.” Nations in Eastern Europe and Central Asia are on the frontier of that change: “Connecting the North and the rising South is the transforming East,” the Report says, referring to the region. Dozens of developing countries worldwide have achieved impressive growth and dramatically improved peoples’ lives with pragmatic policies that typically combine strong government leadership, open markets and imaginative social programs, the Report says. “The 2013 Report makes a significant contribution to development thinking by describing specific drivers of development transformation and by suggesting future policy priorities that could help sustain such momentum,” writes UNDP administrator Helen Clark in the Report’s foreword. Some of the largest countries have made rapid advances, notably Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, South Africa and Turkey. But there has also been substantial progress in smaller economies, such as Bangladesh, Chile, Ghana, Mauritius, Rwanda, Thailand and Tunisia. The experience of many states in Eastern Europe and Central Asia in managing a rapid transition from centrally planned to market economies holds useful lessons for developing countries elsewhere, says the Report. The first phase of the transformation began with a sharp drop in living standards and human development. While each country managed a subsequent recovery, the overall experience underscores the importance of social inclusion and a responsible role for the state.
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HUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPORT OFFICE14 March 2013
RISE OF THE SOUTH:
• TECTONIC SHIFTS
• EXPANSION OF HUMAN CAPABILITIES AND CHOICES
GLOBAL REBALANCING
A CHANGING WORLD
1820
1835
1850
1865
1880
1895
1910
1925
1940
1955
1970
1985
2000
2040
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Brazil, India, ChinaGermany, France, Italy, UK, US, Canada
% S
hare
of
worl
d o
utp
ut
(PP
P)
REALIGNMENT OF WORLD TRADE
A CHANGING WORLD
1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007
2010
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
South-South
% s
hare
of
worl
d m
er-
ch
an
dis
e t
rad
e
RAPID HUMAN DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE GLOBE
0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.90
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
HDI 1990
HD
I 2
01
2
RwandaUganda
Bangladesh
IndiaGhana
Viet NamIndonesia
ChinaTunisia
Turkey
Brazil
MauritiusMalaysiaMexico
Chile
A CHANGING WORLD
Korea, Rep.
Thailand
Lao PDR
MUCH HUMAN PROGRESS, PARTICULARLY IN LOW HDI COUNTRIES
Avg. Annual Growth rate 2000-12 HDI Spread– highest vs. lowest
Very high HDI
High HDI Medium HDI Low HDI0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
1.60
1.80
Very high HDI High HDI Medium HDI Low HDI0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
MASSIVE EXPANSION OF THE GLOBAL MIDDLE CLASS
1990 (1.8 billion)
Europe and North AmericaAsia-PacificCentral and South America
2030 (4.9 billion)
A CHANGING WORLD
2020 (3.2 billion)
INTERNET CONNECTIVITY
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
South North
Inte
rnet
users
(m
illion
s)
Why have some countries done better than others?
What can we learn from them?
What are the common drivers?
Nurturing
industrial capacities
PROACTIVE DEVELOPMENTAL STATES
DRIVERS
Enhancing public investment in
health and education
Commitment to
long-term human development
Actively
promoting job creation1
43
2
1Investing in
infrastructure to facilitate market access
TAPPING GLOBAL MARKETS
DRIVERS
Investment in people to make the best of trade opportunities
23 Expanding into
non-traditional markets
1 Expanding education access by equalizing funds across regions and municipalities
SOCIAL POLICY INNOVATIONS
DRIVERS
Poverty reduction through innovative cash transfer programmes
Health care for all and targeting the poor
2
3
BRAZIL TURKEY
MEXICO
4 Extending development benefits to the broader society key to accelerating progress
INDIA
How can we sustain human development for the
generations to come?
PROMOTING EQUITY, VOICE AND ACCOUNTABILITY
SUSTAINING MOMENTUM
Countries with less inequality do better and improve more in human development
1 2
4
Women’s education is essential to reduce gender inequality
Participation and inclusion essential to stability
and social cohesion
3Educated, interconnected youth demand greater
accountability
CONFRONTING ENVIRONMENTAL CHALLENGES
SUSTAINING MOMENTUM
COST OF INACTION: POTENTIAL ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT ON POVERTY
1
To reap a demographic dividend and benefit from
youth bulge, job creation should have priority
IS DEMOGRAPHY DESTINY?
SUSTAININGMOMENTUM
Education is key to reduce fertility rates
23
Skills formation and productivity gains can help cope with a rapidly aging population
• Governance for a changed world
• Opportunities for new development partnerships
THE RISE OF THE SOUTH
1MORE SPACE FOR NON STATE ACTORSCitizen networks and social media can promote new norms to reinforce accountability of both state and private actors
REDESIGN FOR A NEW ERA
IMPLICATIONS
GLOBAL GOVERNANCEFor fair representation and shared responsibility, 20th century institutions must adapt to 21st century realities
COHERENT PLURALISMRise in regional institutions and finance mechanisms2
3
NEW INSTITUTIONS, NEW MECHANISMS
IMPLICATIONS
$3.36 trillion
$6.84 trillion
• Infrastructure development banks
• New institutions can facilitate regional integration and South-South relationships
• A new South Commission
• Rising economic strength must be matched by a full commitment to human development
• LDCs can learn and benefit from the success of emerging economies
• Greater representation for the South and CSOs can accelerate progress on major global challenges
• In a more connected world, the South continues to need the North and the North now needs the South as well
PRIORITIES FOR A NEW ERA