Risk and Vulnerability

Lecture given by Duncan Green

Head of Research at Oxfam GB

Notre Dame University, September 2009

Part of a series of From Poverty to Power lectures.

Main messages

Risk and vulnerability are central to the experience of being poor

Shocks reinforce each other and have long-term impacts on health and well-being

Real (human) security lies through a combination of empowerment and protection by effective, accountable states

But the concept of security has been devalued by the war on terror

Defining our terms

Vulnerability: reduced ability to cope with stresses

and shocks

Risk: hazard x vulnerability

Human Security: the opposite of vulnerability,

achieved through combination of:

– Empowerment (active citizens)

– Protection (effective states)

Causes of vulnerability

Causes of death worldwide

Health and maternal mortality:

one woman dies needlessly every minute

A woman’s risk of dying ranges from one in seven

in Niger to one in 47,600 in Ireland

Children who have lost their mothers are up to ten

times more likely to die prematurely

More progress on other health issues, e.g. access

to water and sanitation, immunization, life

expectancy

‘First world’ ailments such as heart disease,

diabetes, and cancer are on the rise

Answer lies in investing in public health systems

Pandemics such as HIV will persist,

but can be contained Illness and death drives individuals and families into

poverty

At societal level, pandemics can set development back

decades

New ‘zoonotic’ diseases may follow HIV in years to

come (e.g. avian/swine flu, SARS)

Active Citizenship is particularly important for diseases

that have no cure, like HIV

Political leadership can make or break response (Brazil

v South Africa)

Global collaboration showed effectiveness in case of

SARS outbreak of 2002/3

Achieving Human Security:

Social Protection Social assistance: non contributory transfers (eg

food stamps)

Social insurance: contributory transfers (eg

pensions)

One of most effective ways to reduce vulnerability,

esp. for the chronic poor (elderly, disabled etc.)

Response to failure of targeted safety nets/ food aid

Social protection bridges gap between emergencies

and development – challenge to Oxfam

South Africa, Brazil arguing for universal basic

income guarantee – could it work at a global level?

How change happens:

India’s employment guarantee scheme

How change happens:

India’s employment guarantee scheme

All rural Indians are now guaranteed 100 days

work a year

Grew from activist legal campaigns in Rajasthan

and spread of ‘rights consciousness’

Congress adopted scheme in 2004 election

manifesto, not expecting to win

Sonia Gandhi and activism were crucial to ensure

implementation after the election

Hunger and famine

Hunger and famine

Due to current food price crisis, hunger has risen to one

billion, but famine deaths have fallen

Hunger reflects power and inequality • 400m people in developing countries are now obese

• Amartya Sen: no famine has ever taken place in a

functioning democracy

Undernourishment in foetus and infancy are particularly

damaging

Dealing with hunger relies primarily on self reliance and

effective accountable states

Current crisis driven by switch to meat, biofuels, climate

change, oil prices, and possibly speculation

The food price rollercoaster

Natural disasters

Deaths have halved over last 30 years (to 200 a day) due to risk reduction such as early warning systems

Natural disasters highlight inequality– hit poor countries and communities hardest

Disaster preparedness and risk reduction require Active Citizens and Effective States

Improving ‘downward accountability’ is a priority

Climate change could reverse that progress

Conflict is both symptom

and cause of poverty and inequality

Violence, poverty and inequality are interwoven –against women, crime, abuse by authorities, civil war

Progress on gender-based violence through legislation and women’s organization

After bloody 20th C, post Cold War has left rump of 30 ‘poverty conflicts’ mainly in Africa

Conflict = failure of politics, but some have acquired economic logic of their own

Active Citizens: self organization to reduce conflict

Effective States: including providing livelihoods for ex-combatants

The humanitarian system

Only 6% of total aid

Improving but still a mess. Main failings:

– Too little too late, but CERF is hopeful

– Distributed according to CNN or geopolitics,

rather than need

– Too many organizations. UN particularly

byzantine

Humanitarian aid warped by food aid – expensive,

demeaning and can undermine local agriculture

Peace and peace-keeping

‘Responsibility to Protect’ – an important UN

achievement

Force should only be last resort

UN blue helmets up 6 x since 1998

Rich countries give $, poor ones give soldiers

Does UN need a standing military force?

Arms Trade Treaty needed

War on terror undermines peace-keeping/R2P

How change happens:

the landmines ban

How change happens:

the landmines ban

1997 ban treaty has led to a sharp fall in deaths. In

2005 only Myanmar, Russia and Nepal

acknowledged using them and producer countries

were down from 50 to 13

Ban rode post Cold War wave of optimism

International Campaign to Ban Landmines worked

closely with a handful of governments, e.g.

Canada, Norway, Austria, and South Africa

Gained momentum by moving outside UN system

and insisting on total ban – no watering down

Human security through empowerment :

South Africa’s Treatment Action Campaign

Further Reading from the Blog

Climate change and natural disasters,

http://www.oxfamblogs.org/fp2p/?p=232

Giving people cash after a disaster,

http://www.oxfamblogs.org/fp2p/?p=170

Review of ‘War, Guns and Votes’, by Paul Collier,

http://www.oxfamblogs.org/fp2p/?p=326

What would a global food security policy look

like? http://www.oxfamblogs.org/fp2p/?p=141

Oxfam staff blogging under fire in Gaza,

http://www.oxfamblogs.org/fp2p/?p=122

Further Reading

From Poverty to Power, Part 4

Paul Collier, ‘War, Guns and Votes’

FAO. The State of Food Insecurity in the World

(Annual),

http://www.fao.org/docrep/011/i0291e/i0291e00.htm

World Disasters Report (Annual),

http://www.ifrc.org/publicat/wdr2008/