VULNERABILITY AND RISK

8/13/2019 VULNERABILITY AND RISK

1/27

The CCA-DRM NexusKendra Gotangco

Rosa PerezManila Observatory


2/27

Now that we have climate

projections so what?

Understanding climate variability and climate change

is just one step towards adaptation.

We also need to know HOW we may be affected bythese changes in concrete terms, and WHY we are

affected in these ways.

Only then can we formulate effective action plans.


3/27

Outline Define the concepts of hazard, vulnerability and risk

and how they interact.

Reconcile risk and vulnerability frameworks of theclimate change and disaster risk communities.

Clarify the CCA-DRM nexus.

Introduce the role of vulnerability assessment in

adaptation.


4/27

Why Knowing the Hazard is

Not Enough


5/27

Hazard Hazard refer specifically to physical manifestations of

climatic variability or change, such as droughts, floods,storms, episodes of heavy rainfall, long-term changes in themean values of climatic variables, potential future shifts in

climatic regimes and so on.

Climate hazards may be defined in terms of absolute valuesor departures from the mean of variables such as rainfall,temperature, wind speed, or water level, perhaps combined

with factors such as speed of onset, duration and spatialextent.

Hazards are also referred to as climate events.


6/27

Broad Categories of Hazards1. Discrete recurrent hazards, as in the case of transient

phenomena such as storms, droughts and extremerainfall events

2. Continuous hazards, for example increases in meantemperatures or decreases in mean rainfall occurring overmany years or decades

3. Discrete singular hazards, for example shifts in climaticregimes associated with changes in ocean circulation; thepalaeoclimatic record provides many examples of abruptclimate change events associated with the onset of newclimatic conditions that prevailed for centuries ormillennia


7/27

Letsimagine


8/27

Risk = Hazard x Exposure x Vulnerability

lack of capacity of community toprepare, absorb, recover from hazardVulnerability

elements affected by hazardExposure

physical impact of disturbanceHazard

likelihood of harm, loss, disasterRisk

Adaptive Capacity


9/27

Risk = H x E x V


10/27

H

E V

R


11/27

H

E V

R


12/27

H

E V

R


13/27

H

E V

R


14/27


15/27

H

E V

R


16/27

H

V


17/27

Two Worlds, Two Languages?


18/27

V =f( E, S, AC)

Exposure:nature and degree to which a system is exposed tosignificant climatic variations

Sensitivity:degree to which a system is affected, either adverselyor beneficially, by climate variability or change. The effect may

be direct (e.g., a change in crop yield in response to a change inthe mean, range or variability of temperature) or indirect (e.g.,damages caused by an increase in the frequency of coastalflooding due to sea level rise).

Adaptive Capacity:The ability of a system to adjust to climatechange (including climate variability and extremes) to moderatepotential damages, to take advantage of opportunities, or to cope

with the consequences.

IPCC AR4, TAR WG2


19/27

Vulnerability Two categories:

- Social vulnerability - a state that exists within asystem before it encounters a hazard event;Determined by factors such as poverty and inequality,marginalisation, food entitlements, access toinsurance, and housing quality

- Biophysical vulnerability - in terms of the amount of(potential) damage caused to a system by a particular

climate-related event or hazard ; This combinedvulnerability is a function of hazard, exposure andsensitivity


20/27

IPCC Vulnerability

(Biophysical)

UN Risk

Exposure

Sensitivity

Adaptive Capacity

climate change mitigation

climate change adaptation

Hazard

Exposure

Vulnerability

(Inherent Vulnerability)

Adaptive Capacity

disaster mitigation

NOTE: Not a strict correspondence but a rough mapping to facilitatelinking of understanding of frameworks.


21/27

Figure SPM.1 Illustration of the core concepts of the SREX (IPCC SREX SPM)


22/27

Making Connections and

Seeking Synergies


23/27

Figure SPM.3, IPCC SREX SPM

DRM that helps build

resilience contributes to

CCA in the long run;

however, climate change

may push us into new

extremes!

IPCC TAR WG1 2.7.1


24/27

DRM and CCA: Points of Convergence

Climate Change Adaptation:

Reduce riskto:

Disaster Risk Management

Reduce riskto:

Gradual changes in

climatic parametersExtreme weather events

with increased

frequency and severity

Changes in

mean

temperature

Changes in

precipitation

patterns

Sea level rise

Climate- and

weather-related

events

Geophysical

eventsEcological

events

Direct connection Other events (e.g.

technological,

terrorism)

Hazards that are

associated with changing

climate normals

Hazards that are

associated with extreme

events


25/27


26/27

Disaster RiskManagement

Climate ChangeAdaptation

SustainableCommunityDevelopment

Mitigating climate- and

weather-related disasterssupports long-termclimate change adaptationand helps reducevulnerability.

Long-term adaptation goals

and institutional capacity-building, especiallyregarding extreme weatherevents, must be streamlinedinto DRM.

Level of developmentaffects communitys

vulnerability and capacityto adapt.

CCA necessitatesadjustments in livelihoodsand lifestyle that must beintegrated withdevelopment pathways.

Disasters stall socio-economic developmentand harm livelihoods.

Development decisionsaffect distribution ofvulnerability, exposure

and disaster losses.

Climate ChangeMitigation

Amount of climatechange not mitigated

affects frequency andseverity of hazards,requiring DRM toconsider shifts inclimate patterns.

Success/failure of mitigationdictates amount of

adaptation needed.

Mitigation asserts theneed for low-emissiondevelopment pathways

and lifestyle choices.

Development activitiesdetermine amount ofemissions and thus, amountof mitigation needed.Economic growth presents achallenge to mitigation.

Gotangco Castillo, 2007; Adapted from Schipper, Lisa and Mark Pelling.


27/27

Thank you!

Documents

VULNERABILITY AND RISK